Match report →
Nice – Rennes5 : 2
Why the model thinks so
Nice
1.41
Total xG
3.17
Rennes
1.76
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Nice | Rennes |
|---|---|---|
| High-scoring league (3 goals/match) | +0.47 | +0.47 |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 10 vs 2, 8 places gap) | −0.27 | |
| Defensive weakness (1.6 conceded vs 1.4 league avg) | +0.26 | |
| Defensive strength (1.8 conceded vs 1.6 league avg) | +0.23 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.4 goals/match) | +0.14 | |
| Rising form (2.4 vs 1.9 season average) | +0.14 | |
| Attack strength (1.45x league average) | +0.14 | |
| Small sample (4 matches), regression to mean | −0.11 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.4 goals/match) | +0.10 | |
| Rising form (1.4 vs 1.1 season average) | +0.10 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 2 vs 10, 8 places gap) | +0.07 | |
| Small sample (3 matches), regression to mean | +0.00 | |
| Attack weakness (0.76x league average) | −0.00 | |
| Bryan Reynolds on the bench (0 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Full strength squad available |
Key factors
- Table: Rennes are 2nd in the league with 16 points from 8 matches, Nice are 10th with 11 points
- Attack: Rennes scored 2.25 goals per match in the league this season, Nice 1 goal per match
- Shooting: Rennes averaged 6.2 shots on target per match in their last 5 matches, Nice 4.2 per match
Risks
- Away form: Rennes conceded 3 goals per match away in the league this season, Nice 0.75 per match at home
- Squad: E. Lepaul is absent, having scored 7 of the 17 league goals for Rennes players this season (41%)
All probabilities
Result
Nice29%
Draw26%
Rennes45%
Double chance
Nice or draw55%
Rennes or draw71%
No draw74%
Goals
Over 1.584%
Under 1.516%
Over 2.561%
Under 2.539%
Over 3.539%
Under 3.561%
Both teams score
Yes64%
No36%
xG score
1:1
From xG 1.41 : 1.76, rounded up only from .912% probability
Other likely scores
1:2
9%
2:1
7%
0:2
7%
2:2
6%
5:2
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Rennes: 5 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)
- Rennes: goal in the first 15 minutes in 5 of 10 games (50%)
- Rennes: first goal in 6 of 9 games (67%)
- Nice: opponent scores first in 5 of 7 games (71%)
Lineups
Nice 3-4-2-1 · Rennes 3-5-2
Nice
- 23 Y. Diouf
- 5 M. Abdelmonem
- 55 Y. Ndayishimiye
- 35 X. Mandza Tsiendi
- 92 J. Clauss
- 39 D. Coulibaly
- 6 H. Boudaoui
- 27 N. Nkounkou
- 10 S. Diop
- 9 M. Amoura
- 11 S. Wahi
Rennes
- 16 N. Lemaître
- 48 Abdelhamid Ait Boudlal
- 4 C. Cresswell
- 24 A. Rouault
- 95 P. Frankowski
- 17 S. Szymański
- 21 V. Rongier
- 28 A. Thomasson
- 18 M. Nagida
- 22 B. Dia
- 11 M. Al Tamari
Substitutes
- 29 N. N'Goumou Minpole
- 7 G. Hein
- 28 A. Witsel
- 21 I. Jansson
- 8 M. Sanson
- 84 H. Koutoune
- 87 E. Pereira
- 77 T. Boulhendi
- 22 I. Camara
- 41 D. Morana
- 10 L. Blas
- 45 M. Camara
- 26 Q. Merlin
- 6 D. Cisse
- 90 I. Soumaré
- 12 E. Mayenda Dossou
- 5 G. Calisto Oliveira
- 60 K. Belazzoug
- 14 B. Reynolds
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