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LOSC Lille – Lens1 : 0
Why the model thinks so
LOSC Lille
1.40
Total xG
2.96
Lens
1.56
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | LOSC Lille | Lens |
|---|---|---|
| High-scoring league (3 goals/match) | +0.47 | +0.47 |
| Defensive strength (1.2 conceded vs 1.6 league avg) | −0.42 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.4 goals/match) | −0.16 | |
| Declining form (1.4 vs 1.9 season average) | −0.16 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match) | −0.14 | |
| Declining form (1 vs 1.5 season average) | −0.14 | |
| Small sample (4 matches), regression to mean | −0.13 | |
| Small sample (4 matches), regression to mean | +0.12 | |
| Defensive weakness (1.2 conceded vs 1.4 league avg) | −0.12 | |
| Dilane Bakwa on the bench (2 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| 37% of goal output missing (only 58% available) | ||
| Franjo Ivanović on the bench (2 goals, 0 assists) |
Key factors
- Form: Lens recorded 3 wins in their last 5 matches, Lille 1 win in 5 matches
- Shots on target: Lens averaged 5.2 shots on target per match in their last 5 matches, Lille 2.6 per match
Risks
- Table: Lille are 3rd in the league this season with 15 points in 8 matches, Lens 7th with 13 points in 8 matches
- Head-to-head: Lille won 3 of the 4 previous meetings, Lens 1 win in 4 meetings
All probabilities
Result
LOSC Lille33%
Draw27%
Lens40%
Double chance
LOSC Lille or draw60%
Lens or draw67%
No draw73%
Goals
Over 1.581%
Under 1.519%
Over 2.557%
Under 2.543%
Over 3.534%
Under 3.566%
Both teams score
Yes61%
No39%
xG score
1:1
From xG 1.40 : 1.56, rounded up only from .913% probability
Other likely scores
1:2
9%
2:1
8%
0:2
6%
2:2
6%
1:0
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Lens: 4 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)
- LOSC Lille: 67% of all goals in the first half (10 of 15, last 11 games)
Lineups
LOSC Lille 4-3-3 · Lens 3-4-2-1
LOSC Lille
- 1 B. Özer
- 38 M. Goffi
- 3 N. Ngoy
- 4 A. Souza Ribeiro
- 15 R. Perraud
- 17 N. Mukau
- 6 N. Bentaleb
- 21 B. André
- 8 E. Mbappé Lottin
- 10 H. Haraldsson
- 35 S. Diaoune
Lens
- 40 R. Risser
- 2 R. Aguilar
- 6 S. Baidoo
- 20 J. Todibo
- 23 S. Abdul Hamid
- 21 A. Haidara
- 27 M. Cuisance
- 14 M. Udol
- 10 F. Thauvin
- 7 F. Sotoca
- 9 T. Hazard
Substitutes
- 9 O. Giroud
- 24 C. Verdonk
- 11 O. Sahraoui
- 7 D. Bakwa
- 14 M. Kjaergaard
- 26 I. Cossier
- 19 B. Onal
- 28 G. Perrin
- 12 O. Gill
- 5 A. Bulatović
- 32 K. Antonio
- 24 J. Gradit
- 29 F. Ivanović
- 8 Y. Titraoui
- 16 M. Gorgelin
- 28 J. Kadile
- 22 M. Skóraś
- 38 M.Soares
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