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Olympique Marseille – Toulouse2 : 0
Why the model thinks so
Olympique Marseille
1.93
Total xG
3.21
Toulouse
1.28
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Olympique Marseille | Toulouse |
|---|---|---|
| High-scoring league (3.1 goals/match) | +0.56 | +0.56 |
| Small sample (4 matches), regression to mean | −0.31 | |
| Small sample (4 matches), regression to mean | +0.30 | |
| Rising form (2.5 vs 1.6 season average) | +0.28 | |
| Defensive weakness (1.5 conceded vs 1.7 league avg) | −0.25 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.2 goals/match) | +0.14 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2 goals/match) | +0.14 | |
| Rising form (2.2 vs 1.8 season average) | +0.14 | |
| Angel Gomes on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Full strength squad available |
Key factors
- Home: Olympique Marseille score 2.75 goals per game at home in the league this season
- Head-to-head: Olympique Marseille won 3 of the 4 meetings against Toulouse with 1 draw
- Possession: Olympique Marseille averaged 60.4% possession over their last 5 games
Risks
- Form: Toulouse are unbeaten in their last 5 games with 2 wins and 3 draws
- Away: Toulouse score 2.25 goals per game away in the league this season
All probabilities
Result
Olympique Marseille51%
Draw25%
Toulouse24%
Double chance
Olympique Marseille or draw76%
Toulouse or draw49%
No draw75%
Goals
Over 1.584%
Under 1.516%
Over 2.562%
Under 2.538%
Over 3.540%
Under 3.560%
Both teams score
Yes63%
No37%
xG score
2:1
From xG 1.93 : 1.28, rounded up only from .910% probability
Other likely scores
1:1
11%
2:0
8%
1:2
6%
3:1
6%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Toulouse: 58% of all goals between minutes 46-60 (7 of 12)
- Toulouse: 92% of all goals in the second half (11 of 12, last 8 games)
- Toulouse: 4 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)
- Olympique Marseille: opponent scores first in 8 of 11 games (73%)
- Olympique Marseille: 32% of all goals between minutes 46-60 (6 of 19)
Lineups
Olympique Marseille 4-1-4-1 · Toulouse 4-2-2-2
Olympique Marseille
- 1 J. de Lange
- 22 T. Weah
- 4 C. Egan Riley
- 21 N. Aguerd
- 33 E. Palmieri dos Santos
- 23 P. Højbjerg
- 77 A. Harit
- 8 H. Abdelli
- 6 T. Nadi
- 14 I. Barbosa da Paixão
- 9 A. Gouiri
Toulouse
- 16 G. Restes
- 94 I. Diallo
- 3 M. McKenzie
- 2 R. Nicolaisen
- 12 C. Tapé
- 14 N. Sigur
- 23 C. Cásseres Yepes
- 8 T. Jørgensen
- 15 A. Dønnum
- 13 J. Russell-Rowe
- 20 C. Tengstedt
Substitutes
- 18 A. Meité
- 25 U. Garcia Lopes
- 11 N. Maupay
- 7 A. Gomes
- 19 G. Kondogbia
- 92 T. Vermot
- 43 T. Mmadi
- 74 K. Bezahaf
- 42 N. Kamissoko
- 5 S. Koumbassa
- 6 A. Vossah
- 31 N. Schmidt
- 9 S. Hidalgo Massa
- 7 J. Vignolo
- 18 M. Amougou
- 37 I. Azizi
- 11 S. Oppong
- 1 T. Collin
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