Match report →
Lens – Olympique Marseille1 : 2
Why the model thinks so
Lens
1.55
Total xG
3.20
Olympique Marseille
1.64
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Lens | Olympique Marseille |
|---|---|---|
| Attack weakness (0.73x league average) | −0.60 | |
| High-scoring league (3 goals/match) | +0.45 | +0.45 |
| Small sample (4 matches), regression to mean | +0.37 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match) | −0.20 | |
| Declining form (1.2 vs 1.9 season average) | −0.20 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.4 goals/match) | +0.20 | |
| Rising form (2.4 vs 1.8 season average) | +0.20 | |
| Small sample (4 matches), regression to mean | −0.03 | |
| Ruben Aguilar on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Franjo Ivanović not in squad (2 goals, 0 assists) | ||
| Emerson not in squad (0 goals, 3 assists) |
Key factors
- Attack: Marseille averages 2.22 goals per game in the league this season, Lens averages 2.25 per game at home
- Form: Marseille won 4 of their last 5 matches in all competitions
- Head-to-head: In the last 4 meetings, Lens won 2 matches and Marseille won 2 matches
Risks
- Rest days: Marseille with 3 days since their last match
- Form: Marseille lost 4 out of 9 league matches this season
All probabilities
Result
Lens35%
Draw26%
Olympique Marseille39%
Double chance
Lens or draw61%
Olympique Marseille or draw65%
No draw74%
Goals
Over 1.584%
Under 1.516%
Over 2.562%
Under 2.538%
Over 3.540%
Under 3.560%
Both teams score
Yes65%
No35%
xG score
1:1
From xG 1.56 : 1.64, rounded up only from .912% probability
Other likely scores
1:2
9%
2:1
8%
2:2
7%
0:2
6%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Lens: opponent scores first in 9 of 12 games (75%)
- Lens: 4 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)
- Olympique Marseille with Amine Harit starting: 2.1 goals/game, without him: 1.2 (10/19 games, last 30)
- Olympique Marseille: opponent scores first in 8 of 12 games (67%)
Lineups
Lens 3-4-2-1 · Olympique Marseille 4-2-3-1
Lens
- 40 R. Risser
- 24 J. Gradit
- 6 S. Baidoo
- 20 J. Todibo
- 23 S. Abdul Hamid
- 8 Y. Titraoui
- 21 A. Haidara
- 14 M. Udol
- 10 F. Thauvin
- 7 F. Sotoca
- 9 T. Hazard
Olympique Marseille
- 1 J. de Lange
- 22 T. Weah
- 4 C. Egan Riley
- 21 N. Aguerd
- 25 U. Garcia Lopes
- 23 P. Højbjerg
- 6 T. Nadi
- 77 A. Harit
- 8 H. Abdelli
- 14 I. Barbosa da Paixão
- 9 A. Gouiri
Substitutes
- 5 A. Bulatović
- 1 R. Gurtner
- 32 K. Antonio
- 2 R. Aguilar
- 16 M. Gorgelin
- 28 J. Kadile
- 22 M. Skóraś
- 27 M. Cuisance
- 38 M.Soares
- 18 A. Meité
- 11 N. Maupay
- 7 A. Gomes
- 19 G. Kondogbia
- 48 K. Hikram Abdallah
- 92 T. Vermot
- 43 T. Mmadi
- 74 K. Bezahaf
- 42 N. Kamissoko
- 46 E. Koum Mbondo
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