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Auxerre – Paris0 : 1
Why the model thinks so
Auxerre
1.13
Total xG
2.67
Paris
1.54
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Auxerre | Paris |
|---|---|---|
| Attack weakness (0.68x league average) | −1.21 | |
| Small sample (4 matches), regression to mean | +0.69 | |
| High-scoring league (3 goals/match) | +0.55 | +0.55 |
| Defensive strength (1.6 conceded vs 1.3 league avg) | +0.29 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 14 vs 4, 10 places gap) | −0.28 | |
| Small sample (4 matches), regression to mean | +0.17 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.6 goals/match) | +0.11 | |
| Rising form (1.6 vs 1.2 season average) | +0.11 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2 goals/match) | +0.09 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 4 vs 14, 10 places gap) | +0.07 | |
| Defensive strength (1.8 conceded vs 1.7 league avg) | +0.04 | |
| Luca Koleosho on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists) |
Key factors
- Table: Paris are 4th in the league this season with 17 points from 9 games, Auxerre are 14th with 10 points
- Shots on target: Paris averaged 6 shots on target per game in their last 5 games, Auxerre 4.4 per game
- Attack: Paris scored 2 goals per game in their last 5 games, Auxerre conceded 2.56 per game in the league this season
Risks
- Squad: Paris without A. Camara, who started in 4 of the last 5 games
- Away: Paris scored 1 goal per game away in the league this season across 4 games
All probabilities
Result
Auxerre26%
Draw29%
Paris45%
Double chance
Auxerre or draw55%
Paris or draw74%
No draw71%
Goals
Over 1.576%
Under 1.524%
Over 2.550%
Under 2.550%
Over 3.528%
Under 3.572%
Both teams score
Yes55%
No45%
xG score
1:1
From xG 1.13 : 1.54, rounded up only from .914% probability
Other likely scores
1:2
9%
0:2
8%
2:1
7%
2:2
5%
0:1
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Paris: first goal in 6 of 7 games (86%)
- Auxerre: opponent scores first in 7 of 9 games (78%)
- Auxerre: 3 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)
- Paris: 3 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)
- Auxerre: 38% of all goals between minutes 61-75 (5 of 13)
Lineups
Auxerre 5-4-1 · Paris 3-4-2-1
Auxerre
- 1 P. Nardi
- 29 M. Senaya
- 4 A. Tuanzebe
- 20 S. Diomande
- 13 T. Siwe
- 22 F. Oppegard
- 21 R. Faivre
- 17 P. Ekwah Elimby
- 8 N. Ahamada
- 10 D. Loader
- 9 C. Archer
Paris
- 1 K. Trapp
- 14 H. Traoré
- 42 D. Coppola
- 6 Otavio Ataide
- 23 R. Matondo
- 20 M. Lopez
- 33 P. Lees Melou
- 27 M. Simon
- 10 I. Kebbal
- 7 P. Pagis
- 9 L. Sinayoko
Substitutes
- 3 R. Labeau Lascary
- 5 K. Danois
- 92 C. Akpa
- 27 L. Sy
- 15 C. Makosso
- 23 M. Diop
- 46 A. Piedfort
- 32 R. Kwedi Mandengue
- 77 A. Zossou
- 5 M. Mbow
- 4 V. Marchetti
- 16 O. Nkambadio
- 11 J. Krasso
- 28 T. De Smet
- 15 L. Koleosho
- 8 E. Zabi Gueu
- 18 O. Sissoko
- 3 E. Mbemba Nlandu
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