Match report →
Toulouse – Strasbourg3 : 1
Why the model thinks so
Toulouse
1.72
Total xG
3.05
Strasbourg
1.32
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Toulouse | Strasbourg |
|---|---|---|
| High-scoring league (3 goals/match) | +0.53 | +0.53 |
| Attack weakness (0.62x league average) | −0.40 | |
| Small sample (4 matches), regression to mean | −0.36 | |
| Small sample (5 matches), regression to mean | +0.24 | |
| Rising form (2 vs 1.5 season average) | +0.15 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.6 goals/match) | −0.06 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.6 goals/match) | +0.03 | |
| Jacen Russell-Rowe on the bench (2 goals, 0 assists) | ||
| Aron Dønnum not in squad (1 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| 15% of goal output missing (only 87% available) | ||
| Diogo Sousa on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Strong home record (2.2 vs 1.5 goals/match) | ||
| Weak away record (0.8 vs 1.8 goals/match) |
Key factors
- Form: Toulouse recorded 2 wins in their last 5 matches, while Strasbourg suffered 4 losses in 5 matches
- Away form: Strasbourg concedes 2.6 goals per game away in the league this season
- Goals: Strasbourg scores 1.89 goals per game in the league this season and concedes 2.11 per game
Risks
- Home form: Toulouse scores 0.75 goals per game at home in the league this season
- Squad: Toulouse without R. Messali, in the starting XI in 4 of the last 5 matches
All probabilities
Result
Toulouse46%
Draw26%
Strasbourg28%
Double chance
Toulouse or draw72%
Strasbourg or draw54%
No draw74%
Goals
Over 1.582%
Under 1.518%
Over 2.559%
Under 2.541%
Over 3.536%
Under 3.564%
Both teams score
Yes62%
No38%
xG score
1:1
From xG 1.72 : 1.32, rounded up only from .912% probability
Other likely scores
2:1
9%
1:2
7%
2:0
7%
2:2
6%
3:1
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Strasbourg: 5 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)
- Toulouse: 58% of all goals between minutes 46-60 (7 of 12)
- Toulouse: 92% of all goals in the second half (11 of 12, last 9 games)
- Strasbourg: 6 goals from minute 80 onwards in 9 games. Against Troyes: 3 goals (85', 88', 90+2')
- Strasbourg: 7 of 19 goals conceded from minute 76 onwards (last 9 games)
- Strasbourg: 71% of all goals in the second half (12 of 17, last 9 games)
Lineups
Toulouse 4-4-2 · Strasbourg 4-3-3
Toulouse
- 16 G. Restes
- 94 I. Diallo
- 3 M. McKenzie
- 2 R. Nicolaisen
- 12 C. Tapé
- 8 T. Jørgensen
- 23 C. Cásseres Yepes
- 14 N. Sigur
- 11 S. Oppong
- 9 S. Hidalgo Massa
- 20 C. Tengstedt
Strasbourg
- 1 F. Jörgensen
- 24 L. Høgsberg
- 6 I. Doukoure
- 31 A. Coulibaly
- 36 J. Martínez Gauna
- 14 D. Luis Essugo
- 29 S. El Mourabet
- 10 G. Reyna
- 80 G. Yassine
- 40 C. Harder
- 20 M. Godo
Substitutes
- 5 S. Koumbassa
- 6 A. Vossah
- 31 N. Schmidt
- 7 J. Vignolo
- 44 G. Bakhouche Piernas
- 13 J. Russell-Rowe
- 37 I. Azizi
- 60 M. Niflore
- 49 A. Amaaouch
- 11 S. Nanasi
- 21 P. Diop
- 7 S. Amo-Ameyaw
- 12 M. Piekutowski
- 28 T. Noubissie
- 23 D. Lobão Sousa
- 43 Y. Becker
- 16 G. Antwi
- 30 J. Ortega Conde
Ready to Get Started?
Create an account and discover data-driven football analyses. Cancel anytime.
Create Account →