Match report →
Le Mans – Monaco1 : 1
Why the model thinks so
Le Mans
1.18
Total xG
2.87
Monaco
1.69
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Le Mans | Monaco |
|---|---|---|
| High-scoring league (3 goals/match) | +0.50 | +0.50 |
| Defensive weakness (2 conceded vs 1.7 league avg) | +0.31 | |
| Defensive strength (1.6 conceded vs 1.3 league avg) | +0.30 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 17 vs 7, 10 places gap) | −0.30 | |
| Small sample (4 matches), regression to mean | +0.14 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.8 goals/match) | −0.13 | |
| Declining form (0.8 vs 1.2 season average) | −0.13 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.4 goals/match) | −0.12 | |
| Declining form (1.4 vs 1.8 season average) | −0.12 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 7 vs 17, 10 places gap) | +0.08 | |
| Attack weakness (0.74x league average) | −0.06 | |
| Small sample (5 matches), regression to mean | +0.03 | |
| A. Bourabaa not in squad (3 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| 27% of goal output missing (only 63% available) | ||
| Paris Brunner on the bench (4 goals, 0 assists) | ||
| Edan Diop on the bench (2 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| J. Teze on the bench (0 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| 50% of goal output missing (only 83% available) | ||
| Strong home record (1.7 vs 1.2 goals/match) | ||
| Weak away record (1 vs 1.8 goals/match) |
Key factors
- Table: Monaco rank 7th in the league this season with 15 points from 9 games, Le Mans are 17th with 7 points
- Form: Le Mans conceded 2 goals per game in their last 5 games, Monaco conceded 1 goal per game in their last 5 games
- Tactics: Monaco averaged 4.8 shots on target per game in their last 5 games, Le Mans averaged 2.6 per game
Risks
- Rest days: Monaco with 3 days since their last match
- Home/Away: Le Mans scored 1.5 goals per game at home in the league this season, Monaco 1 per game away
All probabilities
Result
Le Mans25%
Draw27%
Monaco48%
Double chance
Le Mans or draw52%
Monaco or draw75%
No draw73%
Goals
Over 1.580%
Under 1.520%
Over 2.555%
Under 2.545%
Over 3.532%
Under 3.568%
Both teams score
Yes58%
No42%
xG score
1:1
From xG 1.18 : 1.69, rounded up only from .913% probability
Other likely scores
1:2
10%
0:2
8%
2:1
7%
2:2
6%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Le Mans: dropped a lead in 4 of 5 games (8 points lost)
- Le Mans: 45% of all goals between minutes 46-60 (5 of 11)
Lineups
Le Mans 3-1-4-2 · Monaco 4-2-3-1
Le Mans
- 98 N. Kocik
- 26 R. Bamba
- 17 S. Yohou
- 5 H. Voyer
- 29 L. Bretelle
- 18 L. Buadés
- 23 D. Traoré
- 10 J. Vercruysse
- 22 L. Calodat
- 14 L. Mafouta
- 25 D. Guèye
Monaco
- 1 L. Hradecký
- 2 V. de Oliveira Campos
- 72 S. Sané
- 15 E. Dier
- 20 F. Jacinto Nazinho
- 6 D. Zakaria Lako Lado
- 8 L. Camara
- 28 M. Coulibaly
- 10 A. Golovin
- 7 M. Detourbet
- 11 M. Abline
Substitutes
- 13 H. Diallo
- 16 R. Torrente Navarro
- 76 Y. Larouci
- 15 N. Boissé
- 8 A. Lauray
- 9 A. Rabillard
- 1 E. Hatfout
- 20 W. Harhouz
- 28 E. Colas
- 18 T. Minamino
- 29 P. Brunner
- 16 P. Köhn
- 13 C. Mawissa Elebi
- 4 J. Teze
- 9 F. Balogun
- 19 P. Cabral
- 49 I. Touré
- 37 E. Diop
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