Premier League
AFC Bournemouth - Sunderland
02/28/2026, 12:30 PM
Expected Goals
1.5
2.4
0.9
1:1
14%1:0
12%0:0
11%2:0
10%2:1
9%What influences the xG?
AFC Bournemouth
Sunderland
Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
48%
Draw
30%
Away Win
22%
Goals
Over 1.5
71%
Under 1.5
29%
Over 2.5
43%
Under 2.5
57%
Over 3.5
22%
Under 3.5
78%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
78%
Away or Draw
52%
No Draw
70%
Both Score
Yes
48%
No
52%
Key Factors
- Defensive fragility: Sunderland's extremely weak away defense (3.33 goals conceded on average) meets a solid Bournemouth home attack
- Form difference: Bournemouth is unbeaten in five games (WWDWD), while Sunderland is inconsistent, having lost three of their last five (WLLWL)
- Statistical forecast: The mathematical model favors Bournemouth with a 48% win probability, highlighting the home advantage and better form
Risk Factors
- Balanced head-to-head: The head-to-head record is even with two wins each, and Sunderland won the last encounter, suggesting a close game is possible
- Weakened Sunderland attack: Key offensive players like Brian Brobbey and Nordi Mukiele are not in the squad, leaving only 64% of the usual goal threat available
Overview
AFC Bournemouth (8th place, 38 points) host Sunderland (12th place, 36 points) at the Vitality Stadium
Premier League match on February 28, 2026, 1:30 PM
A mid-table clash where the home team aims to solidify their spot in the top half with a win
Form
AFC Bournemouth is in excellent form, unbeaten in their last five matches
Form: WWDWD (3 wins, 2 draws)
Sunderland shows inconsistent form with three losses in their last five games
Form: WLLWL (2 wins, 3 losses)
(W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)
Statistics
Bournemouth has a stronger attack, averaging 1.59 goals per game compared to Sunderland's 1.04
Sunderland's away weakness is particularly striking, conceding an average of 3.33 goals per away game
Bournemouth is more defensively stable at home, conceding only 1.08 goals per game
Matches at the Vitality Stadium are often high-scoring, with an average of 3.8 goals in the last five home games
Head-to-Head
The historical record between the two teams is perfectly balanced
In the last 5 head-to-head matches, there were 2 wins for Bournemouth, 2 wins for Sunderland, and 1 draw
The goal difference is 7-6 in favor of Bournemouth
Sunderland won the last encounter 3-2
Key Players
For Bournemouth, Eli Kroupi (8 season goals), Marcus Tavernier (5 goals, 3 assists), and the strong defender Marcos Senesi (4 assists) are key
For Sunderland, hopes are on Enzo Le FĂ©e (4 goals, 4 assists), experienced midfielder Granit Xhaka (1 goal, 5 assists), and forward Chemsdine Talbi (3 goals)
Goalkeepers
In goal for Bournemouth is Djordje Petrovic, who has kept 7 clean sheets this season
Sunderland relies on Robin Roefs, who has kept a clean sheet 8 times this season
Influences
The home advantage for Bournemouth is statistically significant, as they are much more stable at home (1.08 goals conceded) than Sunderland is away (3.33 goals conceded)
The Vitality Stadium is known for high-scoring games, with an average of 3.8 goals per match in the last five fixtures
Both teams scored in all of Bournemouth's last five home matches