Match report →
Brest – Olympique Lyonnais2 : 0
Why the model thinks so
Brest
1.26
Total xG
2.73
Olympique Lyonnais
1.47
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Brest | Olympique Lyonnais |
|---|---|---|
| Small sample (4 matches), regression to mean | +0.55 | |
| High-scoring league (3 goals/match) | +0.50 | +0.50 |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match) | −0.23 | |
| Declining form (1 vs 1.8 season average) | −0.23 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 11 vs 4, 7 places gap) | −0.20 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (2 goals/match) | +0.17 | |
| Rising form (2 vs 1.4 season average) | +0.17 | |
| Defensive strength (1.6 conceded vs 1.7 league avg) | −0.06 | |
| Small sample (4 matches), regression to mean | −0.05 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 4 vs 11, 7 places gap) | +0.05 | |
| Pathé Mboup on the bench (2 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Felix Bacher on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Strong home record (2 vs 1.4 goals/match) | ||
| Weak away record (1 vs 1.8 goals/match) |
Key factors
- Table: Olympique Lyonnais is 4th in the league this season with 17 points, Brest is 11th with 12 points
- Defense: Olympique Lyonnais conceded 0.78 goals per game in 9 league games this season, Brest 1.33 per game
- Head-to-head: Olympique Lyonnais won 2 of the previous 4 meetings against Brest, with 1 draw and 1 loss
Risks
- Home/Away: Brest scored 2 goals per game at home in the league this season, Olympique Lyonnais 0.75 per game away
- Rest days: Olympique Lyonnais with 3 days since their last match
All probabilities
Result
Brest31%
Draw29%
Olympique Lyonnais40%
Double chance
Brest or draw60%
Olympique Lyonnais or draw69%
No draw71%
Goals
Over 1.577%
Under 1.523%
Over 2.551%
Under 2.549%
Over 3.529%
Under 3.571%
Both teams score
Yes57%
No43%
xG score
1:1
From xG 1.26 : 1.47, rounded up only from .914% probability
Other likely scores
1:2
9%
2:1
8%
0:2
7%
2:2
6%
2:0
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Brest: first goal in 7 of 9 games (78%)
- Brest: 8 of 12 games without conceding in H1, but only 1 over 90 minutes
- Brest: dropped a lead in 4 of 7 games (10 points lost)
- Brest: goal in the first 15 minutes in 4 of 9 games (44%)
Lineups
Brest 4-2-3-1 · Olympique Lyonnais 4-3-3
Brest
- 1 E. Selvik
- 70 K. Lala
- 29 L. Tousart
- 4 G. Lloris
- 2 B. Locko
- 13 J. Chotard
- 8 H. Magnetti
- 11 N. Edjouma
- 23 K. Doumbia
- 17 M. Baldé
- 19 L. Ajorque
Olympique Lyonnais
- 1 D. Greif
- 13 Z. Athekame
- 21 R. Kluivert
- 19 M. Niakhaté
- 3 N. Alejandro Tagliafico
- 99 N. Teye Nartey
- 6 T. Tessmann
- 8 C. Tolisso
- 26 K. Boudache
- 18 K. Merah
- 11 K. Nakamura
Substitutes
- 9 P. Mboup
- 18 J. Bourgault
- 20 T. Zogbe
- 6 M. Diambou
- 21 I. Kanté
- 30 M. Patouillet
- 7 J. Nonge Boende
- 10 G. Versini
- 39 D. N´Guessan
- 24 J. Duranville
- 85 N. Kamara
- 7 E. Appiah Nuamah
- 22 C. Mata Pedro Lourenço
- 32 A. Gomes Rodriguez
- 40 R. Descamps
- 16 A. Da Silva Santos
- 2 M. Bidstrup
- 20 F. Bacher
Ready to Get Started?
Create an account and discover data-driven football analyses. Cancel anytime.
Create Account →