Match report →
Rennes – LOSC Lille1 : 2
Why the model thinks so
Rennes
1.44
Total xG
2.76
LOSC Lille
1.32
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Rennes | LOSC Lille |
|---|---|---|
| High-scoring league (3 goals/match) | +0.50 | +0.50 |
| Attack weakness (0.66x league average) | −0.46 | |
| Small sample (4 matches), regression to mean | +0.30 | |
| Rising form (2.5 vs 1.9 season average) | +0.17 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match) | −0.14 | |
| Small sample (5 matches), regression to mean | −0.05 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2 goals/match) | +0.02 | |
| Sebastian Szymanski on the bench (4 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Przemyslaw Frankowski on the bench (1 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Mousa Tamari on the bench (0 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| 33% of goal output missing (only 70% available) | ||
| Dilane Bakwa not in squad (2 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| 25% of goal output missing (only 81% available) | ||
| Weak away record (1.1 vs 1.5 goals/match) |
Key factors
- Home/Away: Rennes scores 2.6 goals per game at home in the league, LOSC Lille concedes 0.75 per game away
- Shots: Rennes averaged 6 shots on target per game in the last 5 matches, LOSC Lille 4.2 per game
Risks
- Squad: E. Lepaul is absent, having scored 7 of the 19 league goals by Rennes players this season (37%)
- Table: LOSC Lille is 3rd in the league with 18 points from 9 matches, Rennes is 5th with 16 points
- Head-to-head: LOSC Lille won 3 of the 4 past meetings, Rennes 1
All probabilities
Result
Rennes38%
Draw29%
LOSC Lille33%
Double chance
Rennes or draw67%
LOSC Lille or draw62%
No draw71%
Goals
Over 1.578%
Under 1.522%
Over 2.552%
Under 2.548%
Over 3.530%
Under 3.570%
Both teams score
Yes57%
No43%
xG score
1:1
From xG 1.44 : 1.32, rounded up only from .914% probability
Other likely scores
2:1
9%
1:2
8%
2:0
7%
2:2
6%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Rennes: 6 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)
- Rennes: goal in the first 15 minutes in 6 of 12 games (50%)
Lineups
Rennes 3-5-2 · LOSC Lille 4-3-3
Rennes
- 30 B. Samba
- 48 Abdelhamid Ait Boudlal
- 4 C. Cresswell
- 5 G. Calisto Oliveira
- 14 B. Reynolds
- 28 A. Thomasson
- 21 V. Rongier
- 45 M. Camara
- 18 M. Nagida
- 22 B. Dia
- 12 E. Mayenda Dossou
LOSC Lille
- 1 B. Özer
- 3 N. Ngoy
- 23 N. Kouassi
- 4 A. Souza Ribeiro
- 24 C. Verdonk
- 17 N. Mukau
- 6 N. Bentaleb
- 21 B. André
- 8 E. Mbappé Lottin
- 10 H. Haraldsson
- 35 S. Diaoune
Substitutes
- 24 A. Rouault
- 10 L. Blas
- 11 M. Al Tamari
- 95 P. Frankowski
- 26 Q. Merlin
- 6 D. Cisse
- 90 I. Soumaré
- 17 S. Szymański
- 16 N. Lemaître
- 9 O. Giroud
- 15 R. Perraud
- 11 O. Sahraoui
- 7 D. Bakwa
- 14 M. Kjaergaard
- 26 I. Cossier
- 38 M. Goffi
- 28 G. Perrin
- 12 O. Gill
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