Match report →
Le Havre – Lorient0 : 2
Why the model thinks so
Le Havre
1.30
Total xG
2.58
Lorient
1.27
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Le Havre | Lorient |
|---|---|---|
| Small sample (5 matches), regression to mean | +0.58 | |
| High-scoring league (3 goals/match) | +0.50 | +0.50 |
| 5 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.6 goals/match) | −0.23 | |
| Declining form (0.8 vs 1.4 season average) | −0.19 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 18 vs 12, 6 places gap) | −0.18 | |
| Defensive strength (1.5 conceded vs 1.3 league avg) | +0.17 | |
| 3 clean sheets in last 5 matches | −0.15 | |
| Small sample (4 matches), regression to mean | −0.09 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.4 goals/match) | +0.09 | |
| Rising form (1.4 vs 1.1 season average) | +0.09 | |
| Defensive weakness (1.7 conceded vs 1.7 league avg) | +0.04 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 12 vs 18, 6 places gap) | +0.04 | |
| 16% of goal output missing (only 80% available) | ||
| Strong home record (1.6 vs 1.1 goals/match) | ||
| Weak away record (1.1 vs 1.4 goals/match) | ||
| Full strength squad available |
Key factors
- Possession: Le Havre averaged 45.6% possession in their last 5 matches, Lorient 47% possession in their last 5 matches
- Attack: Le Havre scored 0.6 goals per match at home in the league this season, Lorient 0.5 goals per match away
Risks
- Table: Lorient are 12th in the league with 12 points from 9 matches, Le Havre are 18th with 2 points from 9 matches
- Form: Lorient recorded 2 wins in their last 5 matches, Le Havre suffered 5 losses in their last 5 matches
All probabilities
Result
Le Havre36%
Draw30%
Lorient34%
Double chance
Le Havre or draw66%
Lorient or draw64%
No draw70%
Goals
Over 1.574%
Under 1.526%
Over 2.548%
Under 2.552%
Over 3.526%
Under 3.574%
Both teams score
Yes54%
No46%
xG score
1:1
From xG 1.30 : 1.27, rounded up only from .914% probability
Other likely scores
2:1
8%
1:2
8%
2:0
6%
0:2
6%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Le Havre: 5 of 12 goals scored by substitutes (last 12 games)
- Lorient: 5 of 13 goals scored by substitutes (last 12 games)
- Le Havre: scored only after the break in 5 of 9 games
- Lorient: scored only in H2 in 3 consecutive games (5 of 9 total)
- Le Havre: opponent scores first in 6 of 8 games (75%)
- Le Havre: 56% of all goals between minutes 76-90 (5 of 9)
Lineups
Le Havre 3-4-2-1 · Lorient 3-4-2-1
Le Havre
- 16 A. Bodart
- 23 V. Sasso
- 5 A. Touba
- 27 E. Koffi Vinette
- 20 D. Ouziad
- 26 S. Ebonog
- 6 J. Mwanga
- 25 M. Samatta
- 38 R. Fofana
- 17 K. Mizuta
- 9 J. Maja
Lorient
- 38 Y. Mvogo
- 32 N. Adjei
- 3 M. Talbi
- 95 S. Toure
- 20 D. Sylla
- 8 N. Cadiou
- 62 A. Ebong Avon
- 43 K. Kouassi
- 17 J. Makengo
- 33 G. Bernardeau
- 15 T. Aiyegun
Substitutes
- 93 G. Gallon
- 78 D. Mosengo
- 24 G. Prince Zohouri
- 7 A. Richardson
- 44 I. Bouneb
- 34 T. Rousseau
- 30 S. Nakamura
- 97 M. Ndiaye
- 33 Hakim Dongopandji
- 21 M. Bodmer
- 21 B. Kamara
- 11 T. Le Bris
- 19 S. Faye
- 10 I. Jensen
- 55 N. Obaretin
- 30 S. Kuzmic
- 42 M. Koné
- 72 N. Mbamba
- 2 A. Georgen
Ready to Get Started?
Create an account and discover data-driven football analyses. Cancel anytime.
Create Account →