Match report →
Angers SCO – Nice0 : 2
Why the model thinks so
Angers SCO
1.32
Total xG
2.76
Nice
1.45
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Angers SCO | Nice |
|---|---|---|
| High-scoring league (3 goals/match) | +0.50 | +0.50 |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.4 goals/match) | +0.37 | |
| Rising form (2.4 vs 1.2 season average) | +0.37 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 15 vs 8, 7 places gap) | −0.21 | |
| Rising form (1.2 vs 1 season average) | +0.08 | |
| Small sample (4 matches), regression to mean | +0.05 | |
| Small sample (5 matches), regression to mean | +0.05 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 8 vs 15, 7 places gap) | +0.05 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match) | +0.01 | |
| Amine El Ouazzani not in squad (2 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| 19% of goal output missing (only 81% available) | ||
| Gauthier Hein on the bench (0 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Strong home record (1.8 vs 1 goals/match) |
Key factors
- Form: Nice has 4 wins from their last 5 matches, Angers SCO 1
- Table: Nice is 8th in the league with 14 points, Angers SCO is 15th with 8 points
- Head-to-head: Nice won 3 of the 4 meetings between the teams, Angers SCO 1
Risks
- Attack: Nice generated 1.53 xG per match across 5 games with xG data, but scored 2.4 goals per match
- Away: Nice scored 0.75 goals per match away from home in the league this season across 4 games
All probabilities
Result
Angers SCO33%
Draw29%
Nice39%
Double chance
Angers SCO or draw61%
Nice or draw67%
No draw71%
Goals
Over 1.578%
Under 1.522%
Over 2.552%
Under 2.548%
Over 3.530%
Under 3.570%
Both teams score
Yes58%
No42%
xG score
1:1
From xG 1.32 : 1.45, rounded up only from .914% probability
Other likely scores
1:2
9%
2:1
8%
0:2
7%
2:2
6%
Lineups
Angers SCO 4-2-3-1 · Nice 3-4-2-1
Angers SCO
- 1 A. Lopes
- 2 C. Arcus
- 4 O. Camara
- 21 J. Lefort
- 17 J. Kalulu Kyatengwa
- 14 Y. Belkdim
- 93 H. Belkebla
- 18 J. Allevinah
- 8 B. van den Boomen
- 10 M. Sbai
- 9 P. Peter
Nice
- 23 Y. Diouf
- 36 A. Seidu
- 55 Y. Ndayishimiye
- 5 M. Abdelmonem
- 92 J. Clauss
- 39 D. Coulibaly
- 6 H. Boudaoui
- 27 N. Nkounkou
- 10 S. Diop
- 9 M. Amoura
- 11 S. Wahi
Substitutes
- 40 O. Pona
- 24 E. Biumla Bayiha
- 11 D. Harouna
- 27 L. Rao-Lisoa
- 6 L. Mouton
- 26 A. Bermont
- 20 M. Louãr
- 34 M. Gernigon
- 7 U. Mamadou-Simbakoli
- 29 N. N'Goumou Minpole
- 7 G. Hein
- 28 A. Witsel
- 21 I. Jansson
- 8 M. Sanson
- 84 H. Koutoune
- 77 T. Boulhendi
- 35 X. Mandza Tsiendi
- 41 D. Morana
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