Match report →
Paris Saint Germain – Troyes1 : 0
Why the model thinks so
Paris Saint Germain
3.11
Total xG
3.85
Troyes
0.74
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Paris Saint Germain | Troyes |
|---|---|---|
| Defensive strength (2.3 conceded vs 1.3 league avg) | +0.96 | |
| High-scoring league (3 goals/match) | +0.55 | +0.55 |
| Attack strength (1.53x league average) | +0.50 | |
| 5 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (4 goals/match) | +0.44 | |
| Rising form (4 vs 2.5 season average) | +0.44 | |
| Attack weakness (0.76x league average) | −0.35 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 16 vs 1, 15 places gap) | −0.25 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 1 vs 16, 15 places gap) | +0.22 | |
| Small sample (3 matches), regression to mean | −0.22 | |
| Small sample (4 matches), regression to mean | +0.21 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.6 goals/match) | −0.12 | |
| Declining form (0.8 vs 1 season average) | −0.07 | |
| Achraf Hakimi not in squad (3 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Timothé Nkada on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists) |
Key factors
- Table: Paris Saint Germain are 1st in the league with 20 points, Troyes are 16th with 8 points
- Form: Paris Saint Germain won their last 5 matches, Troyes won 1 of their last 5 matches
- Tactics: Paris Saint Germain averaged 10.6 shots on target per match in their last 5 matches, Troyes 3.8 per match
Risks
- xG: Paris Saint Germain created 2.42 xG per match across 5 matches with xG data, but scored 4 goals per match
All probabilities
Result
Paris Saint Germain83%
Draw12%
Troyes5%
Double chance
Paris Saint Germain or draw95%
Troyes or draw17%
No draw88%
Goals
Over 1.590%
Under 1.510%
Over 2.574%
Under 2.526%
Over 3.553%
Under 3.547%
Both teams score
Yes50%
No50%
xG score
3:0
From xG 3.11 : 0.74, rounded up only from .911% probability
Other likely scores
4:0
8%
3:1
8%
2:1
8%
4:1
6%
1:0
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Paris Saint Germain: 9 wins in 11 games with xG above 1.0 (82% win rate)
- Paris Saint Germain: 5 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 12 games)
- Paris Saint Germain: first goal in 9 of 12 games (75%)
- Paris Saint Germain: 2 comebacks in 3 games after trailing past minute 75 (4 points rescued)
Lineups
Paris Saint Germain 4-3-3 · Troyes 4-5-1
Paris Saint Germain
- 39 M. Safonov
- 33 W. Zaire Emery
- 6 I. Zabarnyi
- 51 W. Pacho Tenorio
- 21 L. Hernández Pi
- 24 S. Mayulu
- 17 V. Machado Ferreira
- 8 F. Ruiz Peña
- 14 D. Doue
- 9 F. Torres García
- 22 M. Godts
Troyes
- 40 Y. Konaté
- 2 L. Maronnier
- 6 A. Monfray
- 4 M. Diaz
- 14 I. Boura
- 10 M. Ifnaoui
- 17 A. Mille
- 29 K. Dermane
- 8 M. Diop
- 7 K. Diawara
- 20 R. Ripart
Substitutes
- 27 P. Fernández Sarmiento
- 47 Q. Ndjantou Mbitcha
- 87 J. Gonçalves Neves
- 30 L. Chevalier
- 4 L. Lopes Beraldo
- 12 L. Digne
- 42 D. Boly
- 16 A. Longoni
- 46 Y. Idder
- 11 I. Gomis
- 9 J. Le Douaron
- 22 H. Picard
- 33 P. Beach
- 23 T. NKada
- 5 P. Gozzi Iweru
- 44 Y. Titi
- 26 A. Phliponeau
- 36 I. Soukouna
Ready to Get Started?
Create an account and discover data-driven football analyses. Cancel anytime.
Create Account →