Premier League
Brighton & Hove Albion - Nottingham Forest
03/01/2026, 02:00 PM
Expected Goals
1.4
2.7
1.3
1:1
14%2:1
9%1:2
8%2:0
7%2:2
6%What influences the xG?
Brighton & Hove Albion
Nottingham Forest
Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
40%
Draw
29%
Away Win
31%
Goals
Over 1.5
77%
Under 1.5
23%
Over 2.5
51%
Under 2.5
49%
Over 3.5
29%
Under 3.5
71%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
69%
Away or Draw
60%
No Draw
71%
Both Score
Yes
56%
No
44%
Key Factors
- Strong home defense meets weak away attack: Brighton concedes only 0.93 goals per game at home, while Forest scores just 0.92 away
- Brighton's offensive slump: The home team's goal production has dropped from 1.4 to just 0.6 goals per game in recent matches
- Nottingham Forest's high shot frequency: Despite their league position, the visitors average 5.8 shots on target per game, posing a threat
Risk Factors
- Potential fatigue for Nottingham Forest: The team has had only 3 days of rest since their last match
- Low-scoring games at the venue: Brighton's last 5 home games averaged only 1.4 goals, with none going over 2.5 goals
Overview
Brighton & Hove Albion (14th place, 34 points) host Nottingham Forest (17th place, 27 points) at The American Express Community Stadium
Premier League match on March 1, 2026, 3:00 PM
A mid-table clash where the visitors urgently need points to fight relegation
The mathematical analysis suggests a close game, with a slight edge for Brighton (40% win probability)
Form
Brighton & Hove Albion form: D L L L W (W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)
In the last 5 games, there was 1 win, 1 draw, and 3 losses
The recent win ended a four-game winless streak
Nottingham Forest form: L D W L L
The record for the last 5 games is identical: 1 win, 1 draw, and 3 losses
Forest enters this match with two consecutive defeats
Statistics
Brighton scores an average of 1.33 goals per game this season and concedes 1.26
At home, their defense is stronger, allowing only 0.93 goals per game
Nottingham Forest has one of the weakest attacks in the league with 0.93 goals per game and concedes an average of 1.54 goals away
Both teams scored in 17 of Brighton's 27 matches, while this was the case in 10 of Forest's 27 games
Head-to-Head
In the last 5 head-to-head encounters, Brighton has the edge with 2 wins, while Nottingham Forest won once, and 2 matches ended in a draw
The goal difference favours Nottingham Forest at 9:5
Brighton won the last meeting 2-0
Key Players
Danny Welbeck is Brighton's top scorer with 9 goals this season
Pascal Groß consistently delivers strong performances in midfield with an average rating of 7.14
Defender Jan Paul van Hecke has already contributed 3 goals and 2 assists
Morgan Gibbs-White is the key player for Forest with 6 goals and 2 assists
Elliot Anderson impresses in midfield with a very high average rating of 7.26
Ibrahim Sangaré is a crucial pillar in midfield with 2 goals and 2 assists this season
Goalkeepers
Bart Verbruggen is in goal for Brighton; his team has kept 6 clean sheets this season
Matz Sels will be in goal for Nottingham Forest, who have also kept 6 clean sheets
Influences
Brighton shows clear home advantage, especially defensively with only 0.93 goals conceded per home game
The last five matches at this stadium have been noticeably low-scoring, with an average of just 1.4 goals per game
None of Brighton's last five home games have had more than 2.5 goals