Premier League
Arsenal - Chelsea
03/01/2026, 04:30 PM
Expected Goals
1.7
3.2
1.5
1:1
12%2:1
9%1:2
8%2:2
7%2:0
6%What influences the xG?
Arsenal
Chelsea
Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
39%
Draw
26%
Away Win
35%
Goals
Over 1.5
84%
Under 1.5
16%
Over 2.5
62%
Under 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
40%
Under 3.5
60%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
65%
Away or Draw
61%
No Draw
74%
Both Score
Yes
65%
No
35%
Key Factors
- Fortress Emirates Stadium: Arsenal's extremely strong home defense (only 0.5 goals conceded per game) meets Chelsea's in-form attack
- Head-to-Head Dominance: Arsenal is unbeaten in five encounters against Chelsea (3 wins, 2 draws), holding a psychological advantage
- Clash of the In-Form: Both teams enter the match with an identical five-game unbeaten streak, suggesting a tight and intense contest
Risk Factors
- Chelsea's defensive woes: The extensive injury list, particularly the absence of defenders like W. Fofana, L. Colwill, and M. Cucurella, poses a significant risk
- Arsenal's missing midfield engine: The absence of M. Merino Zazón (4 goals, 3 assists) could impact Arsenal's creativity in the middle of the park
- Limited data availability: Missing Expected Goals (xG) data for Arsenal in recent games could affect the accuracy of their offensive performance analysis
Overview
A top-tier clash in the Premier League: leaders Arsenal (1st place, 61 points) host city rivals Chelsea (6th place, 45 points) at the Emirates Stadium
The London derby takes place on March 1, 2026, at 4:30 PM
Arsenal aims to extend their lead at the top, while Chelsea looks to stay in contention for European spots
Form
Both teams are in scintillating form and are unbeaten in their last five matches
Arsenal's form: WDWDW (3 wins, 2 draws)
Chelsea's form: WWDWD (3 wins, 2 draws)
Both Arsenal and Chelsea have identical records in their last five games, entering the derby with high confidence
W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss
Statistics
With only 21 goals conceded in 28 games, Arsenal has one of the strongest defenses in the league (0.75 avg per game)
Arsenal is particularly dominant at home, conceding an average of just 0.5 goals
Chelsea also possesses a strong attack, scoring an average of 1.78 goals per game
Away from home, the Blues are even more potent, with an average of 1.79 goals per game
An average of 3.4 goals have been scored in the last five matches at the Emirates Stadium
Head-to-Head
Arsenal has had the clear upper hand in recent head-to-head encounters
In the last 5 duels, Arsenal won 3 times, 2 matches ended in a draw, and Chelsea failed to secure a win
The goal difference is 7:4 in favor of Arsenal
Arsenal also won the most recent meeting 1-0
Key Players
For Arsenal, striker Viktor Gyökeres stands out with 10 season goals, including 3 in his last 3 appearances
In midfield, Declan Rice (4 goals, 4 assists) and Martín Zubimendi (5 goals, 1 assist) are the key playmakers
For Chelsea, João Pedro is the top scorer with 11 season goals and 4 assists, having scored 4 times in the last 4 games
He is supported by in-form midfielders Enzo Fernández (8 goals, 2 assists) and Cole Palmer (8 goals, 1 assist)
Goalkeepers
The match features a goalkeeper duel between David Raya (Arsenal) and Robert Sánchez (Chelsea)
Raya has kept 13 clean sheets this season
Sánchez has collected 9 clean sheets for Chelsea so far
Influences
Arsenal's home advantage is a crucial factor, with an impressive record of only 8 goals conceded in 16 home games
The Emirates Stadium has recently been a venue for high-scoring games, with an average of 3.4 goals in the last five matches
Four of these five games saw over 2.5 goals