Premier League
Newcastle United - Everton
02/28/2026, 03:00 PM
Expected Goals
2.2
3.5
1.4
2:1
9%3:1
7%2:2
6%1:2
6%3:0
5%What influences the xG?
Newcastle United
Everton
Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
55%
Draw
23%
Away Win
23%
Goals
Over 1.5
88%
Under 1.5
12%
Over 2.5
68%
Under 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
47%
Under 3.5
53%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
77%
Away or Draw
45%
No Draw
77%
Both Score
Yes
67%
No
33%
Key Factors
- Stark form contrast: Newcastle has won four of its last five games, while Everton arrives with two consecutive losses
- Surging offense vs. defensive fortress: Newcastle's attack recently averaged 3.0 goals per game but faces Everton's strong away defense (only 1.0 goals conceded per game)
- Major midfield absence: Newcastle must cope without their key player Bruno Guimarães (9 goals, 4 assists), which is a significant weakening
Risk Factors
- Newcastle's defensive vulnerability: Conceding an average of 1.44 goals per game, Newcastle's defense consistently offers opportunities to opponents
- Long injury list for Newcastle: Besides Guimarães, other key defensive players like Botman and Schär are missing, which could affect defensive stability
- Historical advantage for Everton: In recent history, Everton has often had the upper hand in head-to-head encounters (2 wins in 5 games)
Overview
Newcastle United (11th place, 36 points) host Everton (9th place, 37 points) at St. James' Park
Premier League clash on February 28, 2026, 3:00 PM
A tight mid-table duel with only one point separating the teams
The mathematical analysis favors the home team with a 55% probability of winning
Form
Newcastle United are in impressive form with a record of WWWLW from their last five games, which corresponds to four wins and one loss
Everton, on the other hand, are struggling with their form, with a record of DDWLL, including two consecutive losses
W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss
Statistics
Newcastle has a slightly stronger offense with 1.41 goals per game compared to Everton's 1.07
Defensively, Everton is more stable, conceding an average of 1.15 goals per game, while Newcastle is at 1.44
Everton's defense is particularly strong away from home, allowing only 1.00 goals on average
Newcastle scores an average of 1.41 goals per game at home
Head-to-Head
In the last five direct encounters, Everton has a slight edge with two wins, while Newcastle United won once and two matches ended in a draw
The goal difference is also narrow at 6:5 in favor of Everton
However, Newcastle won the last meeting clearly with a 4-1 scoreline
Key Players
For Newcastle, Nick Woltemade is a key offensive player with 7 goals this season
He is supported by Anthony Gordon (3 goals, 2 assists) and the goal-scoring defender Malick Thiaw (4 goals)
Key midfielder Bruno Guimarães is not nominated
For Everton, Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall and Iliman Ndiaye are the top scorers with 5 goals each
James Garner is a crucial playmaker with 3 assists
Forward Jack Grealish is not in the squad
Goalkeepers
The goalkeeping duel is between Nick Pope for Newcastle and Jordan Pickford for Everton
Pope has kept 7 clean sheets this season
Pickford has 9 clean sheets in the current season
Influences
St. James' Park has recently been the scene of high-scoring matches, with an average of 4.2 goals in the last five games
More than 2.5 goals were scored in 80% of these matches
Newcastle is strong at home, scoring 1.41 goals per home game, but faces Everton's very solid away defense, which concedes only one goal on average