Premier League
Wolverhampton Wanderers - Aston Villa
02/27/2026, 08:00 PM
Expected Goals
1.0
2.5
1.5
1:1
14%0:1
11%0:0
10%1:2
9%0:2
9%What influences the xG?
Wolverhampton Wanderers
Aston Villa
Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
25%
Draw
30%
Away Win
45%
Goals
Over 1.5
72%
Under 1.5
28%
Over 2.5
45%
Under 2.5
55%
Over 3.5
24%
Under 3.5
76%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
55%
Away or Draw
75%
No Draw
70%
Both Score
Yes
51%
No
49%
Key Factors
- League table gap: The clash between third-placed Aston Villa (51 points) and bottom-of-the-league Wolverhampton (10 points) highlights a huge difference in quality.
- Statistical dominance: Aston Villa is significantly superior in both attack (1.41 vs 0.64 goals/game) and defense (1.04 vs 1.82 goals conceded/game).
- Weakened Wolves attack: Only 50% of the seasonal goal threat is available in Wolverhampton's squad, further hampering their already weak offense.
Risk Factors
- Identical short-term form: Both teams have the exact same record in their last five games (1W, 2D, 2L), which could suggest a closer match than the league table implies.
- Unpredictable venue: Recent games at Molineux Stadium have been unexpectedly high-scoring (3.4 goals average), which could give the match an unpredictable dynamic.
Overview
Wolverhampton Wanderers (20th place, 10 points) host Aston Villa (3rd place, 51 points) at Molineux Stadium
Premier League match on February 27, 2026, 8:00 PM
The mathematical analysis clearly favors the visitors with a 45% win probability
It's a clear clash between a relegation candidate and a top-tier team
Form
Both teams show identical form from their last five matches
Wolverhampton Wanderers: LDWDL (1 win, 2 draws, 2 losses)
Aston Villa: LDWLD (1 win, 2 draws, 2 losses)
Despite the large gap in the league table, the short-term form of both teams is comparable
(W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)
Statistics
The season statistics show a clear superiority for Aston Villa
With just 0.64 goals per game, Wolverhampton has one of the weakest offenses in the league and concedes an average of 1.82 goals
Aston Villa scores an average of 1.41 goals and concedes only 1.04 goals per game
The Wolves have failed to score in 15 of their 28 league matches this season
Head-to-Head
In the last five head-to-head encounters, Aston Villa has the upper hand
The visitors have won 3 of the last 5 matches, with one win for the Wolves and one draw
The goal difference is 7-4 in favor of Aston Villa
The last match ended in a 1-0 victory for Aston Villa
Key Players
For Wolverhampton Wanderers, Santiago Bueno (2 goals, 1 assist) and Mateus Mané (2 goals, 1 assist) are the season's top scorers
For Aston Villa, Morgan Rogers (8 goals, 5 assists) and Ollie Watkins (8 goals, 1 assist) stand out offensively
Not in the Aston Villa squad are John McGinn (3 goals, 2 assists) and Donyell Malen (4 goals, 1 assist)
Goalkeepers
The goalkeeping duel is between José Sá for Wolverhampton and Emiliano Martínez for Aston Villa
Martínez has kept 8 clean sheets this season
Sá has managed this in 3 matches
Influences
Wolverhampton's home advantage is statistically minimal, with only 0.65 goals scored and 1.5 goals conceded per home game
However, it's noteworthy that the last five games at Molineux Stadium have been very high-scoring, with an average of 3.4 goals per game
This contrasts with the Wolves' otherwise toothless attack this season