Premier League
Burnley - Brentford
02/28/2026, 03:00 PM
Expected Goals
1.1
2.5
1.4
1:1
14%0:0
10%0:1
10%1:2
9%0:2
8%What influences the xG?
Burnley
Brentford
Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
29%
Draw
30%
Away Win
41%
Goals
Over 1.5
73%
Under 1.5
27%
Over 2.5
45%
Under 2.5
55%
Over 3.5
24%
Under 3.5
76%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
59%
Away or Draw
71%
No Draw
70%
Both Score
Yes
52%
No
48%
Key Factors
- Clear difference in league position and form: 19th-placed Burnley with form LLWLD faces 7th-placed Brentford with form WWDWL
- Offensive mismatch: Brentford's attack (1.48 goals/game), led by top scorer Igor Thiago (17 goals), meets one of the league's weakest defenses (Burnley, 1.93 goals conceded/game)
- Mathematical probability: The analysis favors an away win with a 41% probability, compared to a 29% chance for a home win
Risk Factors
- Brentford's defensive away weakness: They concede an average of 2.00 goals per away game, which could open up chances for Burnley
- Numerous injuries: Both teams have significant players sidelined, which could impact team performance. Burnley is particularly affected with seven injured players
Overview
Burnley (19th place, 19 points) hosts Brentford (7th place, 40 points) at Turf Moor
This is a Premier League match on February 28, 2026, 3:00 PM
The home side faces a crucial game in their relegation battle, while the visitors are aiming for European spots
Form
Burnley's form in the last five games is LLWLD (W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)
They have recorded 1 win, 1 draw, and 3 losses
Brentford's form in the last five games is WWDWL
They have secured 3 wins, 1 draw, and 1 loss, indicating significantly stronger current form
Statistics
Burnley scores an average of 1.07 goals per game this season and concedes 1.93
Brentford scores an average of 1.48 goals per game and concedes 1.37
A notable statistic is Brentford's defense in away games, where they concede an average of 2.00 goals
The last five games at Turf Moor have been high-scoring, with an average of 3.8 goals per match
Head-to-Head
In the last 5 head-to-head matches, there have been 2 wins for Burnley and 3 wins for Brentford
The goal difference is 6:10 in favor of Brentford
Brentford won the last encounter 3-1
Key Players
For Burnley, attacking players Jaidon Anthony (6 season goals) and Zian Flemming (6 season goals) are crucial
In midfield, Hannibal recently proved his goal threat with a goal
For Brentford, Igor Thiago is the outstanding striker with 17 season goals
He is supported by Dango Ouattara (5 goals) and Kevin Schade (6 goals)
Goalkeepers
In goal for Burnley is Martin Dúbravka, who has kept 3 clean sheets this season
Hákun Valdimarsson starts for Brentford
The Brentford team has a total of 6 clean sheets this season
Influences
Statistically, Burnley does not have a clear home advantage, with an average of 1.09 goals scored and 1.73 goals conceded at home
A significant factor could be the venue itself, as Turf Moor has recently seen a high number of goals (average of 3.8 per game in the last 5 matches)
Both teams scored in 80% of these games