Premier League
Leeds United - Manchester City
02/28/2026, 05:30 PM
Expected Goals
1.1
3.5
2.4
1:2
10%1:1
9%0:2
9%1:3
8%0:3
7%What influences the xG?
Leeds United
Manchester City
Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
15%
Draw
20%
Away Win
64%
Goals
Over 1.5
87%
Under 1.5
13%
Over 2.5
68%
Under 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
46%
Under 3.5
54%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
36%
Away or Draw
85%
No Draw
80%
Both Score
Yes
62%
No
38%
Key Factors
- Significant weakening at Man City: The team is missing top striker Erling Haaland (22 goals, 7 assists), leaving only 52% of their usual goal threat on the pitch
- Stark form and H2H superiority: Manchester City has won their last 4 games and all of the last 5 head-to-head matches against Leeds
- Tactical dominance: Manchester City's possession-based style (61% average) and high chance creation (5.2 shots on target) are expected to control the game against a counter-attacking Leeds (44% possession)
Risk Factors
- Leeds' home strength: Leeds is more defensively stable at home, conceding only 1.12 goals per game at Elland Road
- Potential for goals on both sides: The mathematical model calculates a 62% probability for both teams to score, suggesting an open match
- Extensive injury list for City: Besides Haaland's absence from the squad, Man City is also missing other key players like J. Doku and J. Gvardiol, which affects squad depth
Overview
Leeds United (15th place, 31 points) hosts Manchester City (2nd place, 56 points) at Elland Road
The Premier League match takes place on February 28, 2026, at 5:30 PM
The hosts are fighting for crucial points against relegation, while the visitors aim to solidify their title ambitions
Form
Leeds United's current form: L-W-D-D-D
In the last 5 games, there has been 1 win, 3 draws, and 1 loss
Manchester City's current form: D-W-W-W-W
In the last 5 games, there have been 4 wins and 1 draw, with no losses
Manchester City is on a 4-game winning streak
Statistics
Leeds United scores an average of 1.37 goals per game this season and concedes 1.70
Manchester City scores an average of 2.07 goals per game and concedes only 0.93
In 18 of Leeds' 27 games, both teams scored, while for Manchester City this was the case in 13 of 27 matches
At Elland Road, an average of 3.2 goals per game have been scored in recent matches
Head-to-Head
In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Manchester City has won all 5 games
The goal difference is clearly in favor of Manchester City with 19:4 goals
The last encounter ended in a 3-2 victory for Manchester City
Key Players
For Leeds United, the key players are Dominic Calvert-Lewin (10 goals, 1 assist), Brenden Aaronson (4 goals, 3 assists), and Anton Stach (4 goals, 3 assists)
For Manchester City, Rayan Cherki (3 goals, 7 assists), Antoine Semenyo (3 goals, 1 assist), and Nico O'Reilly (4 goals, 3 assists) are crucial
Goalkeepers
In goal for Leeds United is Karl Darlow, whose team has kept 4 clean sheets this season
For Manchester City, Gianluigi Donnarumma is the goalkeeper; his team has achieved 11 clean sheets this season
Influences
Leeds United is defensively more stable at home, conceding an average of only 1.12 goals per game at Elland Road, compared to 2.55 away
Recent matches at Elland Road have been high-scoring, with an average of 3.2 goals per game