Premier League
Brighton & Hove Albion - Arsenal
03/04/2026, 07:30 PM
Expected Goals
1.1
2.8
1.7
1:1
13%1:2
10%0:2
8%2:1
6%2:2
6%What influences the xG?
Brighton & Hove Albion
Arsenal
Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
24%
Draw
27%
Away Win
49%
Goals
Over 1.5
79%
Under 1.5
21%
Over 2.5
54%
Under 2.5
46%
Over 3.5
32%
Under 3.5
68%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
51%
Away or Draw
76%
No Draw
73%
Both Score
Yes
57%
No
43%
Key Factors
- Class difference in the table: League leaders Arsenal (64 points) are clear favorites against mid-table team Brighton (37 points), supported by the analysis with a 49% win probability
- Strong form vs. mixed form: Arsenal is unbeaten in 5 games (3W, 2D), while Brighton only recently ended a 3-game losing streak
- Statistical superiority: Arsenal dominates both offensively (avg 2.0 goals) and defensively (avg 0.76 goals conceded) compared to Brighton (avg 1.36 goals, avg 1.25 goals conceded)
Risk Factors
- Short recovery time: Both teams had only 3 days of rest since their last match, which could lead to fatigue
- Brighton's offensive weakness: According to the data, Brighton's goal output has recently dropped to just 0.8 goals per game, well below their season average of 1.4
- Low-scoring venue: Brighton's home stadium averages only 2.0 goals per game, which can favor tight and unpredictable results
Overview
Brighton & Hove Albion (12th place, 37 points) host league leaders Arsenal (1st place, 64 points) at The American Express Community Stadium
Premier League match on March 4, 2026, 7:30 PM
The visitors from London are clear favorites for this encounter
Form
Brighton & Hove Albion's form: LLLWW
After a run of three consecutive losses, the team has won its last two matches
Arsenal's form: DWDWW
The Gunners are unbeaten in their last five games, winning three of them (3 wins, 2 draws)
Statistics
Arsenal boasts a strong offense, averaging 2.0 goals per game, and the league's best defense with only 0.76 goals conceded
Brighton scores an average of 1.36 goals per game and is defensively solid at home, conceding just 0.94 goals on average
Both teams have scored in 18 of Brighton's 28 league matches this season
Head-to-Head
Brighton have failed to win in the last five head-to-head encounters
Arsenal won three of these matches, while two ended in a draw
The goal difference is clearly in Arsenal's favor at 9-3
Key Players
For Brighton & Hove Albion, Diego Gómez (5 season goals) and defender Jan Paul van Hecke (3 goals, 2 assists) stand out
Pascal Groß has the highest average rating in the team with 7.22
For Arsenal, Viktor Gyökeres (10 season goals) and Declan Rice (4 goals, 5 assists) are the key players in attack
Bukayo Saka has also contributed with 5 goals and 4 assists
Goalkeepers
Brighton's goalkeeper Bart Verbruggen has kept 6 clean sheets in 28 matches this season
Arsenal's David Raya has kept a clean sheet 13 times in 29 appearances, highlighting the team's defensive strength
Influences
Brighton is significantly more stable defensively at home, conceding an average of just 0.94 goals per game compared to 1.67 away
At Brighton's stadium, an average of only 2.0 goals have been scored per game in the last five matches
Only one of these five games ended with more than 2.5 goals, suggesting a tendency for tight contests