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Premier League

Tottenham Hotspur - Crystal Palace

03/05/2026, 08:00 PM

1 : 3
Expected Goals
Tottenham Hotspur
1.3
Total xG
3.0
Crystal Palace
1.8
Most Likely Scores

1:1

12%

1:2

9%

0:2

7%

2:1

7%

2:2

6%
What influences the xG?
THCP

Tottenham Hotspur

4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match)
-0.18
Declining form (1 vs 1.6 season average)
-0.18
Defensive weakness (1.5 conceded vs 1.5 league avg)
-0.03
Xavi Simons not in starting XI (0 goals, 0 assists)

Crystal Palace

Defensive strength (1.3 conceded vs 1.2 league avg)
+0.05
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.4 goals/match)
+0.01
Maxence Lacroix not in starting XI (1 goals, 2 assists)
YĆ©remy Pino not in starting XI (0 goals, 0 assists)
Jefferson Lerma not in starting XI (0 goals, 0 assists)
15% of goal output missing (only 85% available)
Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

27%

Draw

26%

Away Win

47%

Goals

Over 1.5

82%

Under 1.5

18%

Over 2.5

58%

Under 2.5

42%

Over 3.5

36%

Under 3.5

64%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

53%

Away or Draw

73%

No Draw

74%

Both Score

Yes

61%

No

39%

Key Factors
  • The mathematical analysis forecasts a 47% higher probability for an away win for Crystal Palace compared to a home win for Tottenham Hotspur (27%)
  • Tottenham Hotspur's goal production is currently stagnating (1.0 goals per game) and is below their season average (1.6 goals per game) according to Advanced Stats
  • Crystal Palace shows a solid defensive performance away from home, conceding an average of 1.07 goals
Risk Factors
  • Tottenham Hotspur has a long list of injured and suspended players, including key figures like C. Romero (Red Card Suspension) and J. Maddison (Cruciate Ligament Injury)
  • Tottenham Hotspur generates an average of only 3.0 shots on target per game, indicating limited offensive penetration
Overview

Tottenham Hotspur (16th place, 29 points) host Crystal Palace (14th place, 35 points) at the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium on March 5, 2026, 8:00 PM.

This Premier League match sees Spurs fighting against relegation, while Crystal Palace are in mid-table.

Form

Tottenham's current form (all competitions) is "DLLLL", with 0 wins, 1 draw, and 4 losses from 5 games.

Their last result was a 1-2 loss against Fulham.

Crystal Palace's form is "LDWWL", with 2 wins, 1 draw, and 2 losses from their last 5 games.

They last suffered a 1-2 defeat against Manchester United.

W=Win, D=Draw, L=Loss

Statistics

Tottenham averages 1.36 goals scored (1.31 at home) and 1.54 goals conceded (1.69 at home) per season.

Crystal Palace averages 1.07 goals scored (1.07 away) and 1.21 goals conceded (1.07 away).

The Tottenham Hotspur Stadium has seen an average of 3.4 goals per game.

Both teams scored in 80% of matches, and 80% ended with over 2.5 goals.

Head-to-Head

In 5 head-to-head matches: Tottenham has 3 wins, Crystal Palace 2, and 0 draws.

Tottenham scored 6 goals, Crystal Palace 5.

The last encounter on December 28, 2025, saw Tottenham win 1-0 away.

Tottenham has been the more dominant team in recent meetings.

Key Players

Tottenham: Dominic Solanke (2 goals, 0 assists), Micky van de Ven (4 goals, 1 assist), Pape Matar Sarr (2 goals, 3 assists).

Crystal Palace: IsmaĆÆla Sarr (5 goals, 1 assist), JĆørgen Strand Larsen (2 goals, 0 assists), Daniel MuƱoz (3 goals, 2 assists).

Goalkeepers

Tottenham goalkeeper Guglielmo Vicario has recorded 7 clean sheets this season.

Palace goalkeeper Dean Henderson has managed 10 clean sheets.

Influences

The Tottenham Hotspur Stadium is known for averaging 3.4 goals per game.

Both teams scored in 80% of matches, and 80% ended with over 2.5 goals.

Tottenham scores 1.31 goals and concedes 1.69 goals at home.

Crystal Palace scores 1.07 goals and concedes 1.07 goals away.

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