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Premier League

Wolverhampton Wanderers - Liverpool

03/03/2026, 08:15 PM

2 : 1
Expected Goals
Wolverhampton Wanderers
0.8
Total xG
2.2
Liverpool
1.3
Most Likely Scores

1:1

14%

0:1

14%

0:0

13%

0:2

10%

1:2

9%
What influences the xG?
WWLIV

Wolverhampton Wanderers

3 clean sheets in last 5 matches
-0.15
Standings disadvantage (pos 20 vs 5, 15 places gap)
-0.15
Rising form (1.2 vs 0.9 season average)
+0.10
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match)
+0.02
Hugo Bueno not in starting XI (2 goals, 1 assists)
Tolu Arokodare not in starting XI (0 goals, 0 assists)
25% of goal output missing (only 92% available)
Strong home record (1.2 vs 0.9 goals/match)

Liverpool

3 clean sheets in last 5 matches
-0.15
Standings advantage (pos 5 vs 20, 15 places gap)
+0.09
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (2.2 goals/match)
+0.04
Defensive strength (1.3 conceded vs 1.2 league avg)
+0.03
Florian Wirtz not in starting XI (4 goals, 2 assists)
Weak away record (1.4 vs 2.1 goals/match)
Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

21%

Draw

31%

Away Win

47%

Goals

Over 1.5

65%

Under 1.5

35%

Over 2.5

37%

Under 2.5

63%

Over 3.5

17%

Under 3.5

83%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

53%

Away or Draw

79%

No Draw

69%

Both Score

Yes

43%

No

57%

Key Factors
  • Difference in class: Fifth-placed Liverpool is superior to bottom-of-the-table Wolverhampton in all aspects, from attack (1.68 vs 0.69 goals/game) to defense
  • Form and Head-to-Head: Liverpool arrives with four consecutive wins and has won all of the last five encounters against Wolves
  • Statistical probability: The mathematical model clearly favors Liverpool with a 47% win probability and predicts more goals for the visitors (1.34 to 0.83)
Risk Factors
  • Potential fatigue for Liverpool: The visitors have had only three days of rest since their last match, which could lead to exhaustion
  • Key absence: Liverpool will be without injured midfielder Florian Wirtz (4 goals, 2 assists), which could impact their creativity
Overview

Wolverhampton Wanderers, last in the table with 13 points, host fifth-placed Liverpool with 48 points at Molineux Stadium

Premier League match on March 3, 2026, 8:15 PM

This is a clash of extremes, with Wolves desperately needing points to avoid relegation, while Liverpool targets the European spots

Form

Wolverhampton Wanderers form: DWDLW

In the last 5 matches, they have 2 wins, 2 draws, and 1 loss

Liverpool form: LWWWW

The visitors are in excellent form with 4 wins from their last 5 matches and are on a 4-game winning streak

Statistics

The Wolves' attack is the weakest in the league with only 20 goals in 29 season matches (0.69 avg)

Liverpool scores an average of 1.68 goals per game

Defensively, Wolves are also vulnerable, conceding an average of 1.76 goals per game, compared to Liverpool's 1.32

Wolves have failed to score in 15 of their 29 matches

Head-to-Head

Liverpool has completely dominated the last 5 head-to-head encounters

The Reds won all 5 matches against Wolves

The goal difference is also clearly in Liverpool's favor at 11:4

The last meeting ended in a 2-1 victory for Liverpool

Key Players

For Wolves, defenders Ladislav Krejci and Santiago Bueno, as well as midfielder Mateus Mané, have each scored 2 league goals this season

Liverpool's attack relies on Hugo Ekitiké with 11 goals and 4 assists

Mohamed Salah (4 goals, 6 assists) and Dominik Szoboszlai (4 goals, 3 assists) are other key players

Goalkeepers

In goal for Wolves is José Sá, who has kept 4 clean sheets this season

For Liverpool, Alisson is in goal, having already kept a clean sheet 9 times

According to the data, both goalkeepers are showing a rising form trend

Influences

Wolves have a poor record at home, scoring an average of only 0.68 goals per game

However, they concede significantly fewer goals at Molineux Stadium with 1.36, compared to away games

The last 5 matches at the stadium have averaged 2.4 goals

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