Premier League
Everton - Burnley
03/03/2026, 07:30 PM
Expected Goals
1.8
2.7
0.9
1:1
12%2:0
11%2:1
10%3:0
7%3:1
6%What influences the xG?
Everton
Burnley
Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
58%
Draw
26%
Away Win
17%
Goals
Over 1.5
76%
Under 1.5
24%
Over 2.5
50%
Under 2.5
50%
Over 3.5
28%
Under 3.5
72%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
83%
Away or Draw
42%
No Draw
74%
Both Score
Yes
50%
No
50%
Key Factors
- Major defensive disparity: Burnley's defense, conceding 2.0 goals per game and even 2.2 away, is one of the weakest in the league, while Everton concedes only 1.18
- Burnley's lack of away strength: The visitors have not kept a single clean sheet in 15 away matches, which provides Everton with clear goal-scoring opportunities
- Clear favorite according to the model: The mathematical analysis strongly favors Everton with a 58% win probability and predicts almost twice as many goals (1.79 to 0.87)
Risk Factors
- Short recovery time: Both teams have had only 3 days of rest since their last match, which could lead to fatigue
- Long injury list for Burnley: The visitors have to do without eight players due to injury, severely limiting squad depth and options
- Everton's recent home weakness: Everton has not won any of their last 4 home games (3 draws, 1 loss)
Overview
Everton (8th place, 40 points) hosts Burnley (19th place, 19 points) at Hill Dickinson Stadium
Premier League match on March 3, 2026, 8:30 PM
Everton is looking to solidify a mid-table position, while Burnley desperately needs points in the relegation battle
Form
Everton's form from the last five matches: D W L L W (2 wins, 1 draw, 2 losses)
They recently secured a 3-2 victory against Newcastle United
Burnley's form from the last five matches: L W L D L (1 win, 1 draw, 3 losses)
The team is coming off a 3-4 loss to Brentford
The form slightly favors Everton
Statistics
Both teams have scored an average of 1.14 goals per game
The key difference is in defense: Burnley concedes an average of 2.0 goals per game, while Everton concedes only 1.18
Burnley's defense is particularly vulnerable away, with 2.2 goals conceded per game
Burnley has not kept a single clean sheet in 15 away matches
Head-to-Head
In the last 5 head-to-head encounters, Everton dominated with 3 wins, only one loss, and one draw
The goal difference is 8-3 in favor of Everton
The last meeting ended in a 0-0 draw
Everton won the last two home duels against Burnley with a clean sheet
Key Players
At Everton, Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall (5 goals, 3 assists) and Iliman Ndiaye (5 goals, 2 assists) are the most dangerous offensive players
James Garner has contributed 4 assists
Not in the squad are Thierno Barry (6 season goals) and Michael Keane (3 season goals), among others
For Burnley, Jaidon Anthony is the top scorer with 7 season goals
Lesley Ugochukwu and Lyle Foster have each scored 3 goals
Zian Flemming (7 season goals) is also missing from the squad
Goalkeepers
In goal for Everton is Jordan Pickford, who has kept 9 clean sheets this season
For Burnley, Martin Dúbravka is the goalkeeper, having achieved 3 clean sheets so far
The statistics here clearly favor the Everton goalkeeper
Influences
Everton has a clear home advantage and is statistically the stronger team
Matches at Hill Dickinson Stadium have recently been rather low-scoring, with an average of 2.0 goals per game
However, both teams scored in 4 of the last 5 home games
Everton's home record shows 1.14 goals scored and 1.36 goals conceded per game