Premier League
Newcastle United - Manchester United
03/04/2026, 08:15 PM
Expected Goals
1.3
2.9
1.6
1:1
13%1:2
9%2:1
7%0:2
7%2:2
6%What influences the xG?
Newcastle United
Manchester United
Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
29%
Draw
27%
Away Win
43%
Goals
Over 1.5
80%
Under 1.5
20%
Over 2.5
56%
Under 2.5
44%
Over 3.5
33%
Under 3.5
67%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
57%
Away or Draw
71%
No Draw
73%
Both Score
Yes
60%
No
40%
Key Factors
- Clear form advantage for Manchester United, who are unbeaten in 5 games, while Newcastle's form is inconsistent
- The absence of key player Bruno GuimarĆ£es (9 goals, 4 assists) is a major blow to Newcastle's midfield
- Both teams combine a strong attack with a vulnerable defense, suggesting goals are likely (BTTS probability 60%)
Risk Factors
- Manchester United's defense is weakened by numerous absences, including Lisandro MartĆnez and Matthijs de Ligt
- The visitors have had only 3 days of rest since their last match, which could lead to fatigue
- Newcastle has won 3 of the last 5 head-to-head matches against Manchester United
Overview
Newcastle United (13th place, 36 points) host Manchester United (3rd place, 51 points) at St. James' Park
Premier League match on March 4, 2026, 9:15 PM
The visitors aim to solidify their spot in the top 3, while Newcastle is stuck in mid-table
Form
Newcastle United form: WWLWL
In the last 5 matches, there have been 3 wins and 2 losses
Most recently, a 2-3 loss against Everton
Manchester United form: WWDWW
Unbeaten in 5 matches with 4 wins and 1 draw
Currently on a 2-game winning streak
(W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)
Statistics
Manchester United has a stronger attack, averaging 1.79 goals per game compared to Newcastle's 1.43
Both teams are defensively vulnerable; Newcastle concedes 1.50 goals per game, Manchester United 1.36
Away from home, Man Utd's defense is particularly weak, conceding 1.69 goals per game
Both teams scored in 18 of Newcastle's 28 games, and in 20 of Man Utd's 28 games
Head-to-Head
In the last 5 head-to-head encounters, Newcastle United won 3 times, Manchester United 2 times
There were no draws
The goal difference is 9:5 in favor of Newcastle
The last meeting was won by Manchester United with a score of 1-0
Key Players
Harvey Barnes has scored 5 goals for Newcastle this season
Anthony Gordon has been directly involved in 5 goals (3 goals, 2 assists)
Defender Malick Thiaw has surprisingly contributed 4 goals this season
Bruno Fernandes is the key player for Manchester United with 7 goals and 13 assists
Bryan Mbeumo is an important attacker with 9 goals
Benjamin Sesko has also scored 8 goals
Goalkeepers
In goal for Newcastle is Aaron Ramsdale
The team has kept 7 clean sheets this season
Senne Lammens is the goalkeeper for Manchester United
The team has kept a clean sheet in 5 matches this season
Influences
At St. James' Park, there's an average of 4.0 total goals per game in recent matches
In 4 of the last 5 home games for Newcastle, there were over 2.5 goals
Manchester United is strong away, scoring an average of 1.77 goals per game
However, they also concede 1.69 goals per game on the road