Premier League
Aston Villa - Chelsea
03/04/2026, 07:30 PM
Expected Goals
1.4
3.1
1.7
1:1
12%1:2
9%2:1
7%0:2
7%2:2
6%What influences the xG?
Aston Villa
Chelsea
Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
30%
Draw
26%
Away Win
44%
Goals
Over 1.5
82%
Under 1.5
18%
Over 2.5
59%
Under 2.5
41%
Over 3.5
37%
Under 3.5
63%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
56%
Away or Draw
70%
No Draw
74%
Both Score
Yes
62%
No
38%
Key Factors
- Chelsea's strong away attack (1.73 goals per game) meets Aston Villa's very solid home defense (0.73 goals conceded per game)
- The recent form trend favors Chelsea, as Aston Villa's goal output has recently declined (0.8 goals per game) while Chelsea scores consistently
- The mathematical model slightly favors Chelsea with a 44% win probability and expects more goals from the visitors (1.70)
Risk Factors
- Chelsea has a shorter recovery period with only 3 days since their last match
- The head-to-head record over the last five games is completely balanced with two wins each and one draw
- Despite their recent poor form, Aston Villa's impressive defensive record at home (0.73 goals conceded per game) is a key factor
Overview
Aston Villa (4th place, 51 points) host Chelsea (6th place, 45 points) at Villa Park
A Premier League clash on March 4, 2026, 8:30 PM
Aston Villa aims to solidify a top-4 spot, while Chelsea looks to close the gap to the European places
Form
Aston Villa's form: D W L D L
In the last 5 games, they have 1 win, 2 draws, and 2 losses
Chelsea's form: W D W D L
Chelsea secured 2 wins, 2 draws, and 1 loss from their last 5 matches
Both teams lost their most recent game
W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss
Statistics
Chelsea has the more dangerous attack, averaging 1.75 goals per game, compared to Aston Villa's 1.36
Defensively, Aston Villa is slightly more stable, conceding an average of 1.07 goals per game (Chelsea 1.18)
Aston Villa's defense is particularly strong at their home ground, Villa Park, allowing only 0.73 goals per game
Chelsea, on the other hand, is very dangerous on the road, scoring an average of 1.73 goals
Head-to-Head
The record of the last 5 head-to-head encounters is completely balanced
Both teams have won 2 games each, with one match ending in a draw
The goal difference is slightly in favor of Chelsea at 10:7
The last meeting was won by Aston Villa 2:1
Key Players
Morgan Rogers is a key factor in Aston Villa's attack with 8 goals and 5 assists
Ollie Watkins has also scored 8 goals this season
For Chelsea, João Pedro is the top scorer with 11 goals and 4 assists
Cole Palmer is in strong form, contributing 8 goals and 1 assist
Goalkeepers
Aston Villa's Emiliano Martínez has kept 8 clean sheets this season
The Chelsea team has managed a total of 9 clean sheets this season
Influences
Aston Villa's home advantage is evident in their very strong defense, conceding only 0.73 goals per game at Villa Park
In the last five home games, there has been an average of 2.6 goals per match