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Premier League

AFC Bournemouth - Brentford

03/03/2026, 07:30 PM

0 : 0
Expected Goals
AFC Bournemouth
1.8
Total xG
3.1
Brentford
1.3
Most Likely Scores

1:1

12%

2:1

9%

1:2

7%

2:0

7%

2:2

6%
What influences the xG?
ABBRE

AFC Bournemouth

3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match)
-0.18
Eli Kroupi not in starting XI (0 goals, 0 assists)
Amine Adli not in starting XI (0 goals, 0 assists)

Brentford

Defensive weakness (1.4 conceded vs 1.2 league avg)
+0.13
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.8 goals/match)
+0.05
Vitaly Janelt not in starting XI (1 goals, 4 assists)
Keane Lewis-Potter not in starting XI (0 goals, 0 assists)
Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

47%

Draw

26%

Away Win

27%

Goals

Over 1.5

84%

Under 1.5

16%

Over 2.5

61%

Under 2.5

39%

Over 3.5

39%

Under 3.5

61%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

73%

Away or Draw

53%

No Draw

74%

Both Score

Yes

63%

No

37%

Key Factors
  • Historical Dominance: Brentford has won all of the last five meetings against Bournemouth, showing clear superiority
  • Defensive Contrast: Bournemouth's strong home defense (1.15 goals conceded/game) meets Brentford's vulnerable away defense (1.92 goals conceded/game)
  • Unbeaten Streak: Bournemouth is unbeaten in its last five league games, indicating stable form and high confidence
Risk Factors
  • Negative H2H Record: Bournemouth has lost all of the last five games against Brentford, which could be a psychological hurdle
  • High Workload: Both teams have had only three days of rest since their last match, which could lead to fatigue
  • Brentford's Away Weakness: With an average of 1.92 goals conceded per away game, Brentford's defense is a potential vulnerability
Overview

AFC Bournemouth (10th place, 39 points) host Brentford (7th place, 43 points) at the Vitality Stadium

Premier League match on March 3, 2026, 8:30 PM

A mid-table clash where the hosts aim to close the points gap with a win

Form

Bournemouth are unbeaten in their last five matches with the form WDWDD (2 wins, 3 draws)

Brentford also show strong form with WDWLW (3 wins, 1 draw, 1 loss)

W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

Statistics

Both teams have scored 44 goals this season (avg. 1.57 per game)

Defensively, Bournemouth are significantly more stable at home (1.15 goals conceded per game) than Brentford are away (1.92 goals conceded per game)

At the Vitality Stadium, an average of 3.8 goals were scored in the last five games, with both teams scoring in every match

Head-to-Head

In the last five head-to-head encounters, Brentford have been completely dominant, winning all five matches

The goal difference of 13:5 in favour of Brentford underlines this superiority

The last meeting ended in a clear 4-1 victory for Brentford

Key Players

For Bournemouth, Marcus Tavernier (5 goals, 4 assists) and Evanilson (6 goals) are key offensive players

For Brentford, Igor Thiago stands out as the clear top scorer with 18 goals this season, supported by Kevin Schade with 7 goals

Goalkeepers

In goal for Bournemouth is Djordje Petrovic, his team has achieved 7 clean sheets this season

Brentford's goal is kept by CaoimhĂ­n Kelleher, his team has 6 clean sheets

Influences

Bournemouth's home strength is a key factor, especially in defense with an average of only 1.15 goals conceded per home game

The Vitality Stadium has recently guaranteed high-scoring games, with an average of 3.8 goals and both teams scoring in the last five matches

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