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Premier League

Arsenal - Everton

03/14/2026, 05:30 PM

2 : 0
Expected Goals
Arsenal
2.4
Total xG
3.2
Everton
0.8
Most Likely Scores

2:0

11%

2:1

10%

1:1

9%

3:0

9%

3:1

7%
What influences the xG?
ARSEVE

Arsenal

Attack strength (1.52x league average)
+1.15
Defensive strength (0.7 conceded vs 1.5 league avg)
-0.80
3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2 goals/match)
-0.10
Standings advantage (pos 1 vs 8, 7 places gap)
+0.08
Viktor Gyökeres on the bench (10 goals, 0 assists)
Gabriel Martinelli on the bench (1 goals, 2 assists)
Piero Hincapié on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists)
23% of goal output missing (only 85% available)

Everton

3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.6 goals/match)
+0.10
Rising form (1.6 vs 1.2 season average)
+0.10
Standings disadvantage (pos 8 vs 1, 7 places gap)
-0.06
Thierno Barry on the bench (6 goals, 0 assists)
James Tarkowski not in squad (1 goals, 1 assists)
Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

70%

Draw

19%

Away Win

10%

Goals

Over 1.5

84%

Under 1.5

16%

Over 2.5

62%

Under 2.5

38%

Over 3.5

39%

Under 3.5

61%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

90%

Away or Draw

30%

No Draw

81%

Both Score

Yes

52%

No

48%

Key Factors
  • Pipeline Prediction: The mathematical analysis predicts a home win for Arsenal with 70% probability
  • Home Dominance & Defensive Strength: Arsenal's strong home record includes an average of 1.94 home goals scored and only 0.53 home goals conceded per game
  • Head-to-Head Advantage: Arsenal has won 3 of the last 5 direct duels against Everton, who have not secured a single victory
Risk Factors
  • Short Recovery Time: Arsenal has only 3 days of rest since their last match
  • Arsenal's Stalling Goal Production: According to advanced stats, Arsenal's recent goal production has slowed to 2.0 goals, compared to their season average of 2.3 goals
  • Everton's Improved Attack: Everton's recent form shows a higher scoring rate of 1.6 goals, surpassing their season average of 1.3 goals
Overview

Arsenal (1st place, 67 points) host Everton (8th place, 43 points) at the Emirates Stadium

Premier League match on March 14, 2026, 6:30 PM

Arsenal leads the league, while Everton aims to consolidate its mid-table position

Form

Arsenal's form across all competitions is W W W W D

This includes 4 wins and 1 draw

Their last 5 results show a draw against Bayer 04 Leverkusen (1-1)

Followed by wins against Mansfield Town (2-1), Brighton & Hove Albion (1-0), Chelsea (2-1) and Tottenham Hotspur (4-1)

Everton's form across all competitions is W L L W W

This includes 3 wins and 2 losses

Their last 5 results include wins against Burnley (2-0) and Newcastle United (3-2)

Followed by losses against Manchester United (0-1) and AFC Bournemouth (1-2)

Their most recent match was a win against Fulham (2-1)

W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

Statistics

Arsenal scores an average of 1.97 goals per game and concedes an average of 0.73 goals per game this season

They kept 14 clean sheets in 30 games

At home, Arsenal scores an average of 1.94 goals and concedes 0.53 goals

Everton scores an average of 1.17 goals per game and concedes an average of 1.14 goals per game this season

They kept 10 clean sheets in 29 games

Away from home, Everton scores an average of 1.14 goals and concedes 1.0 goals

The Emirates Stadium sees an average of 4.0 total goals per game

Both teams scored in 3 of 5 matches at this venue

Over 2.5 goals occurred in all 5 matches at this venue

According to advanced stats, Arsenal's goal production has slowed down at 2.0 goals, compared to a season average of 2.3 goals

Everton is currently scoring more frequently with 1.6 goals, up from their season average of 1.3 goals

Head-to-Head

In 5 head-to-head matches, Arsenal has 3 wins and Everton has 0 wins, with 2 draws

Arsenal scored 5 goals and Everton scored 2 goals in these encounters

The last match on December 20, 2025 ended with Everton losing 0-1 to Arsenal

Arsenal has been the more dominant team in recent head-to-head encounters

Key Players

For Arsenal, Declan Rice is a key midfielder with 4 goals and 5 assists this season

Bukayo Saka contributes with 6 goals and 4 assists, averaging a 7.21 rating

Eberechi Eze has scored 6 goals and provided 2 assists, holding an average rating of 7.01

Not nominated for Arsenal are Viktor Gyökeres (10T/0A), Gabriel Martinelli (1T/2A), Piero Hincapié (1T/1A)

From Everton, Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall scored 6 goals and made 3 assists

Iliman Ndiaye contributed 5 goals and 3 assists

James Garner is an important midfielder with 2 goals and 5 assists this season

Not nominated for Everton are Thierno Barry (6T/0A), James Tarkowski (1T/1A)

Goalkeepers

Arsenal's goalkeeper David Raya has recorded 14 clean sheets in 30 appearances this season

Everton's goalkeeper Jordan Pickford has achieved 10 clean sheets in 29 appearances

Influences

Arsenal benefits from a strong home advantage, scoring an average of 1.94 goals and conceding 0.53 goals at home

The Emirates Stadium typically sees high-scoring games, with an average of 4.0 total goals per match

Both teams scored in 60% of recent matches at this venue

All 5 recent matches at this venue had over 2.5 goals

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