Premier League
Chelsea - Newcastle United
03/14/2026, 05:30 PM
Expected Goals
1.9
3.3
1.4
1:1
11%2:1
9%1:2
7%2:2
7%2:0
6%What influences the xG?
Chelsea
Newcastle United
Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
47%
Draw
25%
Away Win
28%
Goals
Over 1.5
86%
Under 1.5
14%
Over 2.5
65%
Under 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
43%
Under 3.5
57%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
72%
Away or Draw
53%
No Draw
75%
Both Score
Yes
66%
No
34%
Key Factors
- Pipeline prediction: The mathematical analysis indicates Chelsea as slight favorites with a 47% win probability and 1.90 expected goals
- Offensive strength vs. defensive weakness: Chelsea is currently scoring more frequently (2.4) while Newcastle concedes an average of 1.90 goals per away game
- High-scoring match expected: The model predicts a high probability for Over 2.5 goals (65%) and Both Teams To Score (66%)
Risk Factors
- Short rest for Chelsea: Chelsea had only 3 days of rest since their last match
- Key player absences for Newcastle: B. Guimarães Rodriguez Moura (9 goals, 4 assists) and F. Schär (defender) are missing due to injuries
- Away defensive weakness: Newcastle United concedes an average of 1.90 goals per away game
Overview
Chelsea (5th place, 48 points) host Newcastle United (12th place, 39 points) at Stamford Bridge. The Premier League clash takes place on March 14, 2026, 6:30 PM. Chelsea aims to close the gap to the top spots, while Newcastle seeks to improve its mid-table position.
Form
Chelsea's form across all competitions shows DLWWL, which corresponds to two wins, one draw, and two losses in their last five games. Their last encounter ended in a loss (2-5 against Paris Saint Germain). Newcastle United has a form of WLWLD, also two wins, one draw, and two losses. Newcastle's last match ended in a 1-1 draw against FC Barcelona.
Statistics
Chelsea's offense averages 1.83 goals per game, while their defense concedes 1.17 goals per game. They kept 9 clean sheets, had both teams score in 20 games, and saw over 2.5 goals in 19 matches. In home games, Chelsea averages 1.77 goals scored and 1.23 goals conceded. Newcastle United averages 1.45 goals scored and 1.48 goals conceded per season. Away from home, Newcastle scores an average of 1.40 goals per game, but concedes 1.90 goals and kept four clean sheets. At Stamford Bridge, the last five matches averaged 2.8 total goals, and both teams scored in 3 of 5 games.
Head-to-Head
In the five previous head-to-head matches, the record between Chelsea and Newcastle United is even. Both teams have secured two wins each, while one game ended in a draw. The goal difference stands at 7:9 in favour of Newcastle. The last encounter on December 20, 2025, ended in a 2-2 draw.
Key Players
For Chelsea, Cole Palmer with 9 goals and 1 assist, Enzo Fernández with 8 goals and 3 assists, and João Pedro with 14 goals and 5 assists are important players. For Newcastle United, Malick Thiaw with 4 goals, Anthony Gordon with 4 goals and 2 assists, and Lewis Hall with 1 goal and 1 assist are among the standout performers.
Goalkeepers
Chelsea's goalkeeper Robert Sánchez has recorded nine clean sheets this season. Newcastle United's goalkeeper, Aaron Ramsdale, has kept seven clean sheets in the current season.
Influences
The home venue, Stamford Bridge, has seen an average of 2.8 goals per game in the last five matches, with both teams scoring in 3 out of 5 games and over 2.5 goals occurring in 2 out of 5 games. Chelsea averages 1.77 goals scored and 1.23 goals conceded at home, emphasizing their home advantage. Newcastle United, however, concedes an average of 1.90 goals away from home.