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Liga MX

Pumas UNAM - Pachuca

07/18/2026, 11:00 PM

0 : 3
Expected Goals
Pumas UNAM
1.4
Total xG
2.5
Pachuca
1.1
Most Likely Scores

1:1

14%

2:1

9%

2:0

8%

1:2

7%

2:2

5%
What influences the xG?
PUPAC

Pumas UNAM

Defensive strength (1.4 conceded vs 1.8 league avg)
-0.42
4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match)
-0.22
Declining form (1.2 vs 1.7 season average)
-0.14
JordĂĄn Carrillo not in squad (6 goals, 3 assists)
Adalberto Carrasquilla not in squad (2 goals, 6 assists)
Uriel Antuna not in squad (3 goals, 4 assists)
21% of goal output missing (only 70% available)

Pachuca

Attack weakness (0.68x league average)
-0.88
Defensive strength (1.2 conceded vs 1.8 league avg)
-0.64
4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.8 goals/match)
-0.19
Declining form (0.8 vs 1.4 season average)
-0.19
3 clean sheets in last 5 matches
-0.15
VĂ­ctor Alfonso GuzmĂĄn GuzmĂĄn not in squad (5 goals, 8 assists)
Enner Valencia not in squad (8 goals, 1 assists)
Brian GarcĂ­a not in squad (1 goals, 4 assists)
28% of goal output missing (only 62% available)

League

High-scoring league (3.6 goals/match)
+1.10
+1.10
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Pumas UNAM: first goal in 5 of 7 games (71%)

  • 2
    Pumas UNAM with Tony Leone: 2.2 goals/game. Without: 0.5 goals/game (6 of 8 games)

  • 3
    Pachuca with Sergio Lenin Rodriguez: 2.2 goals/game. Without: 0.3 goals/game (5 of 8 games)

  • 4
    Pachuca: 3 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

42%

Draw

30%

Away Win

28%

Goals

Over 1.5

74%

Under 1.5

26%

Over 2.5

47%

Under 2.5

53%

Over 3.5

25%

Under 3.5

75%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

72%

Away or Draw

58%

No Draw

70%

Both Score

Yes

53%

No

47%

Key Factors
  • Pumas UNAM recently averaged only 2.2 shots on target per match in their past games
  • According to advanced stats, Pumas UNAM's goal scoring has stalled recently, averaging 1.3 compared to their season average of 1.7
  • The mathematical model calculates a 42% probability of a home win for Pumas UNAM
Risk Factors
  • VĂ­ctor Alfonso GuzmĂĄn GuzmĂĄn, Enner Valencia, Brian GarcĂ­a are missing, leaving only 63% of the seasonal goal threat available
  • Pachuca's goal production has stalled recently at 0.8 goals, significantly below their season average of 1.4
  • Pachuca concede an average of 1.32 goals per away match
Overview

Pumas UNAM host Pachuca at the Estadio OlĂ­mpico de Universitario

Liga MX match on July 18, 2026, 11:00 PM

Both teams start this new phase with zero points

Pumas currently sit in 7th place, while Pachuca are in 13th

The mathematical model predicts a 42% chance of a home win

Form

Pumas UNAM show a form of DLWDL in their recent matches

The home team recorded 1 win, 2 draws, and 2 losses

Pachuca display a stronger form with LWWWL

The visitors secured 3 wins and 2 losses in their last five games

W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

Statistics

Pumas UNAM scored an average of 1.63 goals and conceded 1.32 goals this season

In home matches, their scoring average stands at 1.67 goals per game

Pachuca average 1.32 goals scored and 1.32 goals conceded in away games

Both teams scored in 4 out of 5 home matches for Pumas UNAM

20 out of 41 season games for Pumas UNAM ended with over 2.5 goals

Head-to-Head

There have been 5 head-to-head matches between these teams

Pachuca won 3 times, while Pumas UNAM won 2 matches

The goal difference stands at 6 to 7 from Pumas' perspective

The last encounter ended in a 1-0 win for Pumas UNAM on May 18, 2026

Key Players

Robert Morales already scored 9 goals and provided 2 assists this season with a rating of 7.08

Juninho recorded 8 goals and 4 assists in 23 appearances with an average rating of 6.84

Pedro Vite has 3 goals and 1 assist in this campaign

Kenedy contributed 9 season goals and 2 assists on the other side with a rating of 6.96

Oussama Idrissi scored 6 goals and provided 3 assists this season

ElĂ­as Montiel recorded 2 goals and 5 assists so far and holds a rating of 7.03

Goalkeepers

Keylor Navas in goal for Pumas UNAM has an average season rating of 7.04

He has already recorded 6 clean sheets at home this season

Carlos AgustĂ­n Moreno Luna starts for Pachuca with a rating of 6.91

He has registered 4 clean sheets in away matches this season

Influences

Pumas UNAM benefit from a solid record at Estadio OlĂ­mpico de Universitario with an average of 1.67 home goals

The venue's historic goal average stands at 4.0 goals per match

The grass pitch offers familiar conditions for the home side

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