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Pumas UNAM – Pachuca0 : 3
Why the model thinks so
Pumas UNAM
1.42
Total xG
2.55
Pachuca
1.13
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Pumas UNAM | Pachuca |
|---|---|---|
| High-scoring league (3.6 goals/match) | +1.10 | +1.10 |
| Attack weakness (0.68x league average) | −0.88 | |
| Defensive strength (1.2 conceded vs 1.8 league avg) | −0.64 | |
| Defensive strength (1.4 conceded vs 1.8 league avg) | −0.42 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match) | −0.22 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.8 goals/match) | −0.19 | |
| Declining form (0.8 vs 1.4 season average) | −0.19 | |
| 3 clean sheets in last 5 matches | −0.15 | |
| Declining form (1.2 vs 1.7 season average) | −0.14 | |
| Jordán Carrillo not in squad (6 goals, 3 assists) | ||
| Adalberto Carrasquilla not in squad (2 goals, 6 assists) | ||
| Uriel Antuna not in squad (3 goals, 4 assists) | ||
| 21% of goal output missing (only 70% available) | ||
| Víctor Alfonso Guzmán Guzmán not in squad (5 goals, 8 assists) | ||
| Enner Valencia not in squad (8 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Brian García not in squad (1 goals, 4 assists) | ||
| 28% of goal output missing (only 62% available) |
Key factors
- Pumas UNAM recently averaged only 2.2 shots on target per match in their past games
- According to advanced stats, Pumas UNAM's goal scoring has stalled recently, averaging 1.3 compared to their season average of 1.7
- The mathematical model calculates a 42% probability of a home win for Pumas UNAM
Risks
- Víctor Alfonso Guzmán Guzmán, Enner Valencia, Brian García are missing, leaving only 63% of the seasonal goal threat available
- Pachuca's goal production has stalled recently at 0.8 goals, significantly below their season average of 1.4
- Pachuca concede an average of 1.32 goals per away match
All probabilities
Result
Pumas UNAM42%
Draw30%
Pachuca28%
Double chance
Pumas UNAM or draw72%
Pachuca or draw58%
No draw70%
Goals
Over 1.574%
Under 1.526%
Over 2.547%
Under 2.553%
Over 3.525%
Under 3.575%
Both teams score
Yes53%
No47%
Most likely scores
1:1
14%
2:1
9%
2:0
8%
1:2
7%
2:2
5%
0:3
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Pumas UNAM: first goal in 5 of 7 games (71%)
- Pumas UNAM with Tony Leone: 2.2 goals/game. Without: 0.5 goals/game (6 of 8 games)
- Pachuca with Sergio Lenin Rodriguez: 2.2 goals/game. Without: 0.3 goals/game (5 of 8 games)
- Pachuca: 3 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)
Lineups
Pumas UNAM 4-2-3-1 · Pachuca 4-2-3-1
Pumas UNAM
- 1 K. Navas Gamboa
- 7 R. López Quiñones
- 6 N. da Silva
- 5 R. Duarte Sánchez
- 77 Á. Angulo Mosquera
- 20 S. Trigos Nava
- 45 P. Vite Uca
- 17 F. Córdova Reyes
- 31 R. Morales
- 203 S. García Arriola
- 23 O. Vieira dos Santos Júnior
Pachuca
- 25 C. Moreno
- 22 A. Mozo Rodríguez
- 4 E. dos Santos Bauermann
- 2 S. Barreto
- 15 F. Venegas Moreno
- 16 C. Rivera Cuéllar
- 10 E. Montiel
- 29 R. Nunes do Nascimento
- 7 R. Pizarro Thomas
- 11 O. Idrissi
- 23 J. Rondón Giménez
Substitutes
- 9 G. Martínez Ayala
- 24 A. Leone Larios
- 18 V. Arteaga Camarena
- 12 C. Calderón Del Real
- 2 P. Bennevendo Peña
- 30 S. López López
- 34 ?. Azuaje García
- 22 A. Medina Camacho
- 35 P. Lara Nevarez
- 199 K. Carranza Anguiano
- 19 I. Hernandez Vargas
- 13 J. Berlanga
- 14 C. Sánchez Nava
- 8 A. Domínguez Figueroa
- 26 A. Bautista Gutiérrez
- 31 J. Eulogio Téllez
- 6 M. Isaís
- 30 S. Rodriguez
- 21 J. Vallejo
- 187 G. Álvarez Montiel
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