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Liga MX

León - Atlas

07/18/2026, 01:00 AM

2 : 3
Expected Goals
León
1.4
Total xG
2.4
Atlas
0.9
Most Likely Scores

1:1

14%

1:0

12%

0:0

11%

2:0

10%

2:1

9%
What influences the xG?
LEÓATL

León

Attack weakness (0.66x league average)
-1.40
Defensive weakness (1.9 conceded vs 2.5 league avg)
-0.59
3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.8 goals/match)
+0.21
Rising form (1.8 vs 1.1 season average)
+0.21
Fernando Beltrán on the bench (3 goals, 2 assists)
Strong home record (1.5 vs 1.1 goals/match)

Atlas

Defensive strength (1.8 conceded vs 1 league avg)
+0.78
4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.8 goals/match)
-0.15
3 clean sheets in last 5 matches
-0.15
Attack weakness (0.74x league average)
-0.10
Declining form (1 vs 1.3 season average)
-0.09
Diego González not in squad (6 goals, 7 assists)
Eduardo Aguirre not in squad (2 goals, 2 assists)
Paulo Ramírez on the bench (2 goals, 0 assists)
35% of goal output missing (only 57% available)
Weak away record (0.8 vs 1.3 goals/match)

League

High-scoring league (3.5 goals/match)
+1.00
+1.00
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Atlas with Gaddi Aguirre: 0.2 goals/game. Without: 1 goals/game (5 of 8 games)

  • 2
    León with Juan Domínguez: 1 goals/game. Without: 2.5 goals/game (6 of 8 games)

  • 3
    Atlas: 69% of xG value comes in the second half (last 8 games with xG data)

  • 4
    León: 3 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)

  • 5
    León: 45% of all goals between minutes 31-45 (5 of 11)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

47%

Draw

30%

Away Win

23%

Goals

Over 1.5

70%

Under 1.5

30%

Over 2.5

42%

Under 2.5

58%

Over 3.5

22%

Under 3.5

78%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

77%

Away or Draw

53%

No Draw

70%

Both Score

Yes

48%

No

52%

Key Factors
  • Critical squad impact for Atlas: Only 57% of their goal threat is available with Diego González, Eduardo Aguirre, and Paulo Ramírez missing
  • Offensive trend for León: The hosts averaged 1.8 goals in recent matches, higher than their season average of 1.1
  • Home advantage in head-to-head: The last encounter in April ended in a decisive 2-0 home victory for León
Risk Factors
  • Defensive vulnerability away: Atlas concedes an average of 2.46 goals per away match this season
  • Low attacking threat: Atlas averaged only 2.4 shots on target per game in recent matches
Overview

León host Atlas at the Estadio León

Liga MX match on July 18, 2026, 2:00 AM

Both teams start level on points, with León in 14th place and Atlas in 3rd place

According to the mathematical model, León enters as favorites with a 48% win probability

Form

León enters with a form of WWWLL in their last five matches

The hosts recently suffered two consecutive defeats

Atlas shows a form of WDWLL over their last five games

The visitors also experienced two consecutive defeats recently

W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

Statistics

León scored an average of 1.06 goals and conceded 1.85 goals per game this season

In home games, the hosts' goal record is balanced with an average of 1.04 scored and 1.04 conceded goals

Atlas scored an average of 1.17 goals and conceded 1.58 goals per game this season

The visitors show defensive struggles away from home, conceding an average of 2.46 goals per away match

Head-to-Head

There have been 4 head-to-head matches between the teams

León recorded 2 wins, while Atlas got 1 win and one draw

The goal difference is 4:3 in favor of León

The last encounter on April 5, 2026, ended in a 2-0 home victory for León

Key Players

Ismael Díaz is León's most dangerous attacker with 10 goals, 6 assists, and a rating of 7.03

Díber Cambindo impressed recently with 3 goals in his last 5 matches

Daniel Arcila contributed 4 goals this season

For Atlas, Arturo González stands out with 7 goals this season

Aldo Rocha scored 1 goal and provided 2 assists this term

Manuel Capasso stabilizes the defense and has also scored 2 goals

Goalkeepers

Óscar García kept goal 28 times for León this season, recording 6 clean sheets overall

Antonio Sánchez has made 2 appearances for Atlas this season

The visitors achieved 10 clean sheets overall this season

Influences

Estadio León features a natural grass surface

The historical goal average at this venue is 3.4 goals per game

Over 2.5 goals were scored in 80% of matches played here

Both teams scored in 60% of those matches

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