Match report →
León – Atlas2 : 3
Why the model thinks so
León
1.45
Total xG
2.37
Atlas
0.93
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | León | Atlas |
|---|---|---|
| Attack weakness (0.66x league average) | −1.40 | |
| High-scoring league (3.5 goals/match) | +1.00 | +1.00 |
| Defensive strength (1.8 conceded vs 1 league avg) | +0.78 | |
| Defensive weakness (1.9 conceded vs 2.5 league avg) | −0.59 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.8 goals/match) | +0.21 | |
| Rising form (1.8 vs 1.1 season average) | +0.21 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.8 goals/match) | −0.15 | |
| 3 clean sheets in last 5 matches | −0.15 | |
| Attack weakness (0.74x league average) | −0.10 | |
| Declining form (1 vs 1.3 season average) | −0.09 | |
| Fernando Beltrán on the bench (3 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Diego González not in squad (6 goals, 7 assists) | ||
| Eduardo Aguirre not in squad (2 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Paulo Ramírez on the bench (2 goals, 0 assists) | ||
| 35% of goal output missing (only 57% available) | ||
| Strong home record (1.5 vs 1.1 goals/match) | ||
| Weak away record (0.8 vs 1.3 goals/match) |
Key factors
- Critical squad impact for Atlas: Only 57% of their goal threat is available with Diego González, Eduardo Aguirre, and Paulo Ramírez missing
- Offensive trend for León: The hosts averaged 1.8 goals in recent matches, higher than their season average of 1.1
- Home advantage in head-to-head: The last encounter in April ended in a decisive 2-0 home victory for León
Risks
- Defensive vulnerability away: Atlas concedes an average of 2.46 goals per away match this season
- Low attacking threat: Atlas averaged only 2.4 shots on target per game in recent matches
All probabilities
Result
León47%
Draw30%
Atlas23%
Goals
Over 1.570%
Under 1.530%
Over 2.542%
Under 2.558%
Over 3.522%
Under 3.578%
Double chance
León or draw77%
Atlas or draw53%
No draw70%
Both teams score
Yes48%
No52%
Most likely scores
1:1
14%
1:0
12%
0:0
11%
2:0
10%
2:1
9%
2:3
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Atlas with Gaddi Aguirre: 0.2 goals/game. Without: 1 goals/game (5 of 8 games)
- León with Juan Domínguez: 1 goals/game. Without: 2.5 goals/game (6 of 8 games)
- Atlas: 69% of xG value comes in the second half (last 8 games with xG data)
- León: 3 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)
- León: 45% of all goals between minutes 31-45 (5 of 11)
Lineups
León 4-1-4-1 · Atlas 4-2-3-1
León
- 23 O. García
- 7 I. Moreno Füguemann
- 3 J. Guevara
- 5 S. Vegas Orellana
- 26 S. Reyes Chávez
- 29 J. Rodríguez Rebollar
- 22 S. Santos
- 20 R. Echeverría Sáez
- 13 D. Arcila
- 11 I. Díaz De León
- 27 D. Cambindo Abonia
Atlas
- 22 A. Sánchez Montes De Oca
- 2 G. Ferrareis
- 28 M. Capasso
- 21 R. Schlegel
- 5 J. Rodríguez Hernández
- 26 A. Rocha González
- 6 E. Zaldivar Valverde
- 11 L. Lopes
- 58 A. González González
- 23 S. Hernández Flores
- 8 R. Mmaee Nwambeben Kabir
Substitutes
- 4 B. Colula Alarcón
- 18 E. Guerra
- 6 F. Beltrán Cruz
- 25 P. Bellón Saracho
- 35 L. Valadez Padilla
- 19 J. Alvarado Pérez
- 16 J. Cortizo de la Piedra
- 185 C. Mora Espinoza
- 33 A. Villegas
- 1 J. García Bonnet
- 10 L. Leite Esteves
- 16 M. Valenzuela
- 4 A. Mora Barraza
- 13 G. Aguirre Ledesma
- 17 J. Lozano Silva
- 27 V. Hugo Ríos de Alba
- 192 J. Serrato Zambrano
- 203 José Martín
- 15 P. Ramírez Barboza
- 181 L. Hernández
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