Match report →
Guadalajara – Toluca0 : 2
Why the model thinks so
Guadalajara
1.47
Total xG
2.31
Toluca
0.85
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Guadalajara | Toluca |
|---|---|---|
| Attack weakness (0.66x league average) | −1.34 | |
| High-scoring league (3.6 goals/match) | +1.10 | +1.10 |
| Defensive strength (1.2 conceded vs 1.8 league avg) | −0.64 | |
| Defensive strength (1.4 conceded vs 1.8 league avg) | −0.44 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match) | −0.22 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.6 goals/match) | −0.15 | |
| Declining form (1.6 vs 2.1 season average) | −0.15 | |
| Declining form (1.5 vs 1.9 season average) | −0.13 | |
| Efraín Álvarez not in squad (3 goals, 8 assists) | ||
| Santiago Sandoval not in squad (6 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Ricardo Marín on the bench (3 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| 22% of goal output missing (only 84% available) | ||
| Marcel Ruiz not in squad (3 goals, 4 assists) | ||
| Diego Barbosa on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Pável Pérez on the bench (0 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Weak away record (1.4 vs 2.1 goals/match) |
Key factors
- Home advantage on artificial turf: Guadalajara is unbeaten on this surface with a record of 7W-3D-0L
- Defensive strength at Estadio AKRON: The hosts concede an average of just 0.79 goals per home match
- Control of play: Both teams have recently been highly dominant, averaging over 58% possession
Risks
- Historical struggle: Guadalajara has failed to win any of the last 4 head-to-head matches against Toluca
- Roster absences for the hosts: Key players Efraín Álvarez, Santiago Sandoval, and Ricardo Marín are not in the starting lineup
- Toluca's away attack: The visitors score an impressive average of 1.88 goals per away match
All probabilities
Result
Guadalajara50%
Draw30%
Toluca20%
Double chance
Guadalajara or draw80%
Toluca or draw50%
No draw70%
Goals
Over 1.569%
Under 1.531%
Over 2.541%
Under 2.559%
Over 3.520%
Under 3.580%
Both teams score
Yes45%
No55%
Most likely scores
1:1
14%
1:0
13%
0:0
12%
2:0
11%
2:1
9%
0:2
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Guadalajara with José Castillo Pérez: 2 goals/game. Without: 0 goals/game (6 of 8 games)
- Toluca with Alexis Vega: 1.7 goals/game. Without: 0 goals/game (6 of 8 games)
- Guadalajara: first goal in 4 of 6 games (67%)
- Toluca: 68% of xG value comes in the second half (last 8 games with xG data)
- Toluca: 3 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)
Lineups
Guadalajara 3-1-4-2 · Toluca 4-2-3-1
Guadalajara
- 1 J. Rangel Aguilar
- 23 D. Aguirre
- 7 L. Romo Barrón
- 3 D. Campillo del Campo
- 28 F. González Pineda
- 37 R. Ledezma
- 6 O. Govea García
- 19 K. Castañeda Vargas
- 5 B. González
- 25 R. Alvarado Hernández
- 9 Á. Sepúlveda Sánchez
Toluca
- 22 L. García Palomera
- 19 S. Simón
- 6 A. Pereira Castelnoble
- 25 E. López
- 20 J. Gallardo Vasconcelos
- 5 F. Romero
- 35 É. Gutiérrez Galaviz
- 10 J. Angulo Uriarte
- 8 N. Castro
- 9 E. Vega Rojas
- 29 J. Díaz Price
Substitutes
- 34 A. González Alba
- 11 B. Gutierrez
- 16 L. Rey Mejía
- 17 R. Marín Sánchez
- 4 M. Tapias Dávila
- 13 Ó. Whalley Guardado
- 2 J. Castillo Pérez
- 24 M. Gómez Ortiz
- 33 J. Carrillo Rodríguez
- 18 J. Perez
- 7 V. Guzmán Guzmán
- 17 B. García Carpizo
- 1 H. González Durán
- 2 D. Barbosa Zaragoza
- 4 B. Méndez Cittadini
- 11 H. Nunes de Castro
- 13 L. Garcia Teixeira
- 24 F. Arce Juárez
- 3 A. Briseño Vázquez
- 191 C. Madrigales
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