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Liga MX

Guadalajara - Toluca

07/19/2026, 01:07 AM

0 : 2
Expected Goals
Guadalajara
1.5
Total xG
2.3
Toluca
0.8
Most Likely Scores

1:1

14%

1:0

13%

0:0

12%

2:0

11%

2:1

9%
What influences the xG?
GUATOL

Guadalajara

Defensive strength (1.4 conceded vs 1.8 league avg)
-0.44
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match)
-0.22
Declining form (1.5 vs 1.9 season average)
-0.13
Efraín Álvarez not in squad (3 goals, 8 assists)
Santiago Sandoval not in squad (6 goals, 1 assists)
Ricardo MarĂ­n on the bench (3 goals, 2 assists)
22% of goal output missing (only 84% available)

Toluca

Attack weakness (0.66x league average)
-1.34
Defensive strength (1.2 conceded vs 1.8 league avg)
-0.64
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.6 goals/match)
-0.15
Declining form (1.6 vs 2.1 season average)
-0.15
Marcel Ruiz not in squad (3 goals, 4 assists)
Diego Barbosa on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists)
PĂĄvel PĂ©rez on the bench (0 goals, 2 assists)
Weak away record (1.4 vs 2.1 goals/match)

League

High-scoring league (3.6 goals/match)
+1.10
+1.10
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Guadalajara with José Castillo Pérez: 2 goals/game. Without: 0 goals/game (6 of 8 games)

  • 2
    Toluca with Alexis Vega: 1.7 goals/game. Without: 0 goals/game (6 of 8 games)

  • 3
    Guadalajara: first goal in 4 of 6 games (67%)

  • 4
    Toluca: 68% of xG value comes in the second half (last 8 games with xG data)

  • 5
    Toluca: 3 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

50%

Draw

30%

Away Win

20%

Goals

Over 1.5

69%

Under 1.5

31%

Over 2.5

41%

Under 2.5

59%

Over 3.5

20%

Under 3.5

80%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

80%

Away or Draw

50%

No Draw

70%

Both Score

Yes

45%

No

55%

Key Factors
  • Home advantage on artificial turf: Guadalajara is unbeaten on this surface with a record of 7W-3D-0L
  • Defensive strength at Estadio AKRON: The hosts concede an average of just 0.79 goals per home match
  • Control of play: Both teams have recently been highly dominant, averaging over 58% possession
Risk Factors
  • Historical struggle: Guadalajara has failed to win any of the last 4 head-to-head matches against Toluca
  • Roster absences for the hosts: Key players EfraĂ­n Álvarez, Santiago Sandoval, and Ricardo MarĂ­n are not in the starting lineup
  • Toluca's away attack: The visitors score an impressive average of 1.88 goals per away match
Overview

Guadalajara hosts Toluca at the Estadio AKRON

Liga MX match on July 19, 2026, 2:07 AM

Both teams enter the matchday with 0 points

The mathematical model estimates a 50% chance of a home victory

Form

Guadalajara shows a form of DLWDL (W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)

They recently suffered a 1-2 defeat against Cruz Azul

Toluca travels with a form of LLWLL

The visitors lost their last match 0-2 against Pachuca

Statistics

Guadalajara scored an average of 1.75 goals per game this season

Their home defense is strong, conceding only 0.79 goals per match

Toluca averaged 1.86 goals scored per game

The visitors conceded an average of 1.31 goals in their away matches

Head-to-Head

Guadalajara has failed to win any of the last 4 head-to-head matches

Toluca dominates the historical record with 3 wins and 1 draw

The total goal difference is 1-7 in favor of Toluca

The last meeting ended in a 2-0 win for Toluca on February 28, 2026

Key Players

Roberto Alvarado stands out with an average rating of 7.26 and 3 recent assists

Omar NicolĂĄs Govea GarcĂ­a recorded 1 goal and 1 assist recently

Alexis Vega leads the visitors with a rating of 7.52 and 12 assists this season

Goalkeepers

RaĂșl Rangel kept 14 clean sheets this season

Luis GarcĂ­a recorded 13 clean sheets for Toluca

Influences

The match is played on artificial turf

Guadalajara is strong on artificial turf with a record of 7W-3D-0L

The historical average at Estadio AKRON stands at 1.6 goals per game

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