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Tijuana – Tigres UANL3 : 1
Why the model thinks so
Tijuana
1.00
Total xG
2.52
Tigres UANL
1.51
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Tijuana | Tigres UANL |
|---|---|---|
| Attack weakness (0.76x league average) | −0.93 | |
| High-scoring league (2.9 goals/match) | +0.40 | +0.40 |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.4 goals/match) | −0.07 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.8 goals/match) | −0.07 | |
| Defensive strength (1.2 conceded vs 1.2 league avg) | −0.02 | |
| Kevin Castañeda not in squad (13 goals, 7 assists) | ||
| Mourad El Ghezouani not in squad (5 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| 41% of goal output missing (only 65% available) | ||
| Ángel Correa not in squad (16 goals, 12 assists) | ||
| Jesús Angulo not in squad (2 goals, 0 assists) | ||
| 13% of goal output missing (only 92% available) |
Key factors
- Artificial turf advantage: Tijuana lost only 1 of 10 home matches on turf, while Tigres remain winless (0W-1D-3L)
- Tactical superiority: Tigres averaged 6.6 shots on target and 56.4% possession in recent matches
- Brunetta's hot streak: The midfielder scored 3 goals in his last 5 games
Risks
- Weakened Tijuana attack: With Kevin Castañeda (13 goals) missing, only 66% of the team's goal share is active
- Fragile away defense: Tigres concede an average of 1.87 goals per away match
- Squad absences: Tigres are without injured options J. Angulo Uriarte, M. Farfan, and M. Flores
All probabilities
Result
Tijuana23%
Draw29%
Tigres UANL48%
Goals
Over 1.573%
Under 1.527%
Over 2.546%
Under 2.554%
Over 3.525%
Under 3.575%
Double chance
Tijuana or draw52%
Tigres UANL or draw77%
No draw71%
Both teams score
Yes51%
No49%
Most likely scores
1:1
14%
1:2
9%
0:2
9%
2:1
6%
1:3
5%
3:1
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Tigres UANL with Diego Sánchez: 2.3 goals/game. Without: 0 goals/game (6 of 8 games)
- Tijuana with Frank Boya: 2.2 goals/game. Without: 0.5 goals/game (4 of 8 games)
- Tijuana: 3 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)
Lineups
Tijuana 4-1-4-1 · Tigres UANL 4-2-3-1
Tijuana
- 2 J. Rodríguez Romero
- 3 R. Fernández Inzunza
- 12 J. Porozo Vernaza
- 6 J. Gómez Molina
- 33 P. Ortíz
- 8 I. Tona Olmeda
- 17 R. Árciga Zárate
- 15 J. Rivero Segade
- 31 J. Padilla Sandoval
- 7 A. Preciado Quintero
- 19 D. Abreu Firenze
Tigres UANL
- 1 N. Guzmán
- 14 J. Garza García
- 28 J. Pereira Silva
- 23 R. Zanre Zwarg
- 32 V. Loroña Aguilar
- 8 F. Gorriarán Fontes
- 5 C. Araújo Vilches
- 16 D. Lainez Leyva
- 11 J. Brunetta
- 77 J. Herrera Morales
- 17 R. Aguirre Soto
Substitutes
- 9 M. Daoudi El Ghezouani
- 20 ?. Zapata Praga
- 26 A. Perez
- 4 U. Bilbao Arteta
- 16 J. Vega Grijalva
- 29 J. Hernández Soriano
- 202 J. González Cera
- 34 F. Boya
- 188 A. Magallón
- 197 J. Orduño Uribe
- 4 J. Sánchez Purata
- 6 J. Vigón Cham
- 25 C. Rodríguez Rangel
- 30 D. Sánchez Guevara
- 26 F. Ordóñez Delgado
- 205 A. de María y Campos Moreno
- 193 M. Villarreal
- 198 I.Galván
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