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Liga MX

Tijuana - Tigres UANL

07/17/2026, 03:10 AM

3 : 1
Expected Goals
Tijuana
1.0
Total xG
2.5
Tigres UANL
1.5
Most Likely Scores

1:1

14%

1:2

9%

0:2

9%

2:1

6%

1:3

5%
What influences the xG?
TIJTU

Tijuana

Attack weakness (0.76x league average)
-0.93
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.4 goals/match)
-0.07
Kevin Castañeda not in squad (13 goals, 7 assists)
Mourad El Ghezouani not in squad (5 goals, 1 assists)
41% of goal output missing (only 65% available)

Tigres UANL

3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.8 goals/match)
-0.07
Defensive strength (1.2 conceded vs 1.2 league avg)
-0.02
Ángel Correa not in squad (16 goals, 12 assists)
Jesús Angulo not in squad (2 goals, 0 assists)
13% of goal output missing (only 92% available)

League

High-scoring league (2.9 goals/match)
+0.40
+0.40
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Tigres UANL with Diego Sánchez: 2.3 goals/game. Without: 0 goals/game (6 of 8 games)

  • 2
    Tijuana with Frank Boya: 2.2 goals/game. Without: 0.5 goals/game (4 of 8 games)

  • 3
    Tijuana: 3 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

23%

Draw

29%

Away Win

48%

Goals

Over 1.5

73%

Under 1.5

27%

Over 2.5

46%

Under 2.5

54%

Over 3.5

25%

Under 3.5

75%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

52%

Away or Draw

77%

No Draw

71%

Both Score

Yes

51%

No

49%

Key Factors
  • Artificial turf advantage: Tijuana lost only 1 of 10 home matches on turf, while Tigres remain winless (0W-1D-3L)
  • Tactical superiority: Tigres averaged 6.6 shots on target and 56.4% possession in recent matches
  • Brunetta's hot streak: The midfielder scored 3 goals in his last 5 games
Risk Factors
  • Weakened Tijuana attack: With Kevin Castañeda (13 goals) missing, only 66% of the team's goal share is active
  • Fragile away defense: Tigres concede an average of 1.87 goals per away match
  • Squad absences: Tigres are without injured options J. Angulo Uriarte, M. Farfan, and M. Flores
Overview

Tijuana host Tigres UANL at Estadio Caliente

Liga MX match on July 17, 2026, 3:10 AM

Tijuana start in 17th place while Tigres occupy 3rd place

Both sides look to start their campaign on a high note

Form

Tijuana are unbeaten in 5 matches with 3 wins and 2 draws (W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)

Tigres UANL recorded 2 wins, 2 draws, and 1 loss recently

Tijuana show a stable form trend heading into this fixture

Statistics

Tigres average 1.80 goals scored per away game

Tijuana concede only 0.57 goals per home game on average

Both teams scored in 80% of matches played at Estadio Caliente

Head-to-Head

Tigres lead with 3 wins to Tijuana's 2 in the last 5 meetings

The goal difference stands at 11:4 in favor of Tigres UANL

Tijuana won the last match 1-0 on April 4, 2026

Key Players

Ramiro Árciga has 3 goals and 8 assists this season

Gilberto Mora has scored 6 goals for Tijuana so far

Juan Brunetta stands out with 19 goals and 9 assists for the visitors

Goalkeepers

Antonio Rodríguez recorded 13 clean sheets in 37 appearances

Nahuel Guzmán secured 14 clean sheets this season

Both keepers display impressive defensive statistics

Influences

The match is played on artificial turf at Estadio Caliente

Tigres lost 3 out of 4 games on artificial turf without scoring

Tijuana achieved 3 wins, 6 draws, and only 1 loss on this surface

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