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Liga MX

Atlético San Luis - Cruz Azul

07/18/2026, 01:00 AM

2 : 3
Expected Goals
Atlético San Luis
0.9
Total xG
2.3
Cruz Azul
1.5
Most Likely Scores

1:1

14%

0:1

13%

0:0

12%

0:2

11%

1:2

9%
What influences the xG?
ASLCA

Atlético San Luis

Attack weakness (0.39x league average)
-2.09
Standings disadvantage (pos 15 vs 3, 12 places gap)
-0.12
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match)
-0.07
João Pedro not in squad (26 goals, 1 assists)
Jesús Medina not in squad (1 goals, 2 assists)
70% of goal output missing (only 44% available)

Cruz Azul

Attack strength (1.37x league average)
+0.47
Defensive strength (1.2 conceded vs 1 league avg)
+0.17
3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.4 goals/match)
-0.15
Standings advantage (pos 3 vs 15, 12 places gap)
+0.08
Weak away record (1.4 vs 1.9 goals/match)
Full strength squad available

League

High-scoring league (3.5 goals/match)
+1.00
+1.00
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Cruz Azul: first goal in 5 of 7 games (71%)

  • 2
    Atlético San Luis: scored only after the break in 3 of 8 games

  • 3
    Atlético San Luis with Lucas Esteves: 0.8 goals/game. Without: 1.5 goals/game (6 of 8 games)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

20%

Draw

30%

Away Win

50%

Goals

Over 1.5

69%

Under 1.5

31%

Over 2.5

41%

Under 2.5

59%

Over 3.5

20%

Under 3.5

80%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

50%

Away or Draw

80%

No Draw

70%

Both Score

Yes

46%

No

54%

Key Factors
  • Only 44% of Atlético San Luis's usual goal threat is available with João Pedro and Jesús Medina not in the lineup
  • Cruz Azul averaged 5.4 shots on target in recent matches, presenting a significant attacking danger
  • Cruz Azul dominated the head-to-head history with 3 wins from the last 4 encounters
Risk Factors
  • Atlético San Luis have a fragile defensive record, conceding an average of 1.62 goals per home match
  • Atlético San Luis's recent goal-scoring has slowed down, averaging 1.2 goals compared to their seasonal average of 1.44
Overview

Atlético San Luis host Cruz Azul at Estadio Alfonso Lastras Ramírez

Liga MX match on July 18, 2026, 1:00 AM

The visitors arrive as favorites

Form

Atlético San Luis show a form of WDLWL with 2 wins, 1 draw, and 2 losses

Their last match ended in a defeat against Juárez

Cruz Azul show a form of WDWDW with 3 wins and 2 draws

W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

Statistics

Atlético San Luis average 1.44 goals scored and 1.65 goals conceded per match

At home they have 23 goals scored and 26 goals conceded

Cruz Azul average 1.77 goals scored and 1.09 goals conceded

In away matches Cruz Azul concede an average of 1.3 goals

Head-to-Head

There have been 4 head-to-head matches so far

Cruz Azul lead with 3 wins compared to 1 win for Atlético San Luis

The last encounter ended in a 3:0 win for Cruz Azul

Key Players

For the hosts, Sébastien Salles-Lamonge, Román Torres, and goalkeeper Andrés Sánchez are in focus

Cruz Azul count on José Paradela, Carlos Rodríguez, and Carlos Rotondi

Goalkeepers

Andrés Sánchez defends the goal for the home team, having kept 7 clean sheets

Kevin Mier plays in goal for Cruz Azul, recording 12 clean sheets

Influences

Matches at Estadio Alfonso Lastras Ramírez average 2.8 total goals

Atlético San Luis play on grass

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