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Atlético San Luis – Cruz Azul2 : 3
Why the model thinks so
Atlético San Luis
0.85
Total xG
2.31
Cruz Azul
1.46
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Atlético San Luis | Cruz Azul |
|---|---|---|
| Attack weakness (0.39x league average) | −2.09 | |
| High-scoring league (3.5 goals/match) | +1.00 | +1.00 |
| Attack strength (1.37x league average) | +0.47 | |
| Defensive strength (1.2 conceded vs 1 league avg) | +0.17 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.4 goals/match) | −0.15 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 15 vs 3, 12 places gap) | −0.12 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 3 vs 15, 12 places gap) | +0.08 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match) | −0.07 | |
| João Pedro not in squad (26 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Jesús Medina not in squad (1 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| 70% of goal output missing (only 44% available) | ||
| Weak away record (1.4 vs 1.9 goals/match) | ||
| Full strength squad available |
Key factors
- Only 44% of Atlético San Luis's usual goal threat is available with João Pedro and Jesús Medina not in the lineup
- Cruz Azul averaged 5.4 shots on target in recent matches, presenting a significant attacking danger
- Cruz Azul dominated the head-to-head history with 3 wins from the last 4 encounters
Risks
- Atlético San Luis have a fragile defensive record, conceding an average of 1.62 goals per home match
- Atlético San Luis's recent goal-scoring has slowed down, averaging 1.2 goals compared to their seasonal average of 1.44
All probabilities
Result
Atlético San Luis20%
Draw30%
Cruz Azul50%
Goals
Over 1.569%
Under 1.531%
Over 2.541%
Under 2.559%
Over 3.520%
Under 3.580%
Double chance
Atlético San Luis or draw50%
Cruz Azul or draw80%
No draw70%
Both teams score
Yes46%
No54%
Most likely scores
1:1
14%
0:1
13%
0:0
12%
0:2
11%
1:2
9%
2:3
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Cruz Azul: first goal in 5 of 7 games (71%)
- Atlético San Luis: scored only after the break in 3 of 8 games
- Atlético San Luis with Lucas Esteves: 0.8 goals/game. Without: 1.5 goals/game (6 of 8 games)
Lineups
Atlético San Luis 3-4-2-1 · Cruz Azul 4-2-3-1
Atlético San Luis
- 1 A. Sánchez Rodríguez
- 3 R. Alves de Barros
- 31 E. Águila Castro
- 18 A. Cruz Sánchez
- 2 R. Torres Acosta
- 21 Ó. Macías Mora
- 10 S. Salles Lamonge
- 16 L. Esteves Souza
- 11 D. Rodríguez Uribe
- 22 S. Romero
- 20 L. Flores
Cruz Azul
- 23 K. Mier Robles
- 16 Á. Márquez Castañeda
- 4 W. Ditta Pérez
- 33 G. Piovi
- 3 O. Campos Chagoya
- 6 É. Lira Méndez
- 8 A. Palavecino Lamela
- 20 J. Paradela
- 19 C. Rodríguez Gómez
- 29 C. Rotondi
- 11 O. Ebere
Substitutes
- 17 A. Duarte da Silva
- 14 M. Garcia Alvarez
- 8 L. Nájera Reyna
- 26 S. Pérez Bouquet Pérez
- 5 R. Meraz Bernal
- 25 M. Lajud Bojalil
- 30 B. Galindo Cruz
- 19 S. Muñóz Robles
- 188 L. Carrillo
- 242 Á. Reyes
- 5 J. Orozco Chiquete
- 1 A. Gudiño Portillo
- 18 L. Romero
- 7 N. Ibáñez
- 12 A. Montes Castro
- 17 A. García Moreno
- 21 G. Fernández Leites
- 22 J. Rodarte Barragán
- 55 Rogelio González
- 10 A. Montaño
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