🇲🇽

Liga MX

Juárez - Puebla

07/18/2026, 03:00 AM

0 : 1
Expected Goals
Juárez
1.5
Total xG
2.3
Puebla
0.8
Most Likely Scores

1:1

14%

1:0

13%

0:0

11%

2:0

11%

2:1

9%
What influences the xG?
JUÁPUE

Juárez

Attack weakness (0.71x league average)
-1.39
Standings advantage (pos 8 vs 18, 10 places gap)
+0.07
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.4 goals/match)
-0.04
José Luis Rodríguez on the bench (4 goals, 9 assists)
Jairo Torres on the bench (4 goals, 2 assists)
Rodolfo Pizarro not in squad (4 goals, 2 assists)
Denzell García on the bench (3 goals, 2 assists)
Francisco Nevárez on the bench (2 goals, 1 assists)

Puebla

Defensive strength (2.3 conceded vs 1 league avg)
+1.27
5 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.6 goals/match)
-0.16
Declining form (0.6 vs 1.1 season average)
-0.16
Attack weakness (0.79x league average)
-0.10
Standings disadvantage (pos 18 vs 8, 10 places gap)
-0.09
Weak away record (0.9 vs 1.1 goals/match)
Full strength squad available

League

High-scoring league (3.5 goals/match)
+1.00
+1.00
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Juárez: scored only in H2 in 4 consecutive games (5 of 8 total)

  • 2
    Puebla: 6 of 8 games without conceding in H1, but only 1 over 90 minutes

  • 3
    Juárez: 75% of xG value comes in the second half (last 8 games with xG data)

  • 4
    Juárez: 4 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)

  • 5
    Puebla with Kevin Velasco: 0.5 goals/game. Without: 1 goals/game (6 of 8 games)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

51%

Draw

29%

Away Win

19%

Goals

Over 1.5

69%

Under 1.5

31%

Over 2.5

41%

Under 2.5

59%

Over 3.5

21%

Under 3.5

79%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

81%

Away or Draw

49%

No Draw

71%

Both Score

Yes

46%

No

54%

Key Factors
  • Offense matchup: Juárez score consistently averaging 1.5 goals, while Puebla concede a high average of 2.57 goals per away match
  • Mathematical advantage: The model calculates a 51% home win probability for Juárez
  • Tactical edge: Juárez averaged 3.6 shots on target in recent matches compared to Puebla's low average of 2.6
Risk Factors
  • Loss of creativity: Juárez must compensate for 45% of seasonal assists missing, as key playmakers like José Luis Rodríguez (9 assists) are not in the lineup
  • Defensive vulnerability: Juárez conceded an average of 1.74 goals per match this season, which increased to 2.2 in recent matches
Overview

Juárez host Puebla at the Estadio Olímpico Benito Juárez

Liga MX match on July 18, 2026, 3:00 AM

Both teams start the new phase after the break

Juárez enter the match as favorites according to the model

Form

Juárez show a form of DLLLW (W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)

The hosts recorded 1 win, 1 draw, and 3 losses recently

Puebla arrive with a form of DLLLL

The visitors recorded 0 wins, 1 draw, and 4 losses in their last matches

Puebla lost their last 4 games in a row

Statistics

Juárez score an average of 1.5 goals per game this season and concede 1.74 goals

In home games, the hosts average 1.5 goals scored and 1.36 goals conceded

Puebla average 1.0 goal scored and 2.0 goals conceded per match this season

Away from home, the visitors show a vulnerable defense conceding 2.57 goals on average

The last 5 games at the stadium featured an average of 3.4 goals per match

Head-to-Head

In the last 4 head-to-head matches, Juárez won 2 times and there were 2 draws

Puebla failed to win any of these encounters

The goal difference stands at 10:7 in favor of Juárez

The last meeting on April 4, 2026, ended in a 1:1 draw

Key Players

Óscar Estupiñán shines with 15 goals and 3 assists with a 6.89 rating

Guilherme Castilho contributed 7 goals and 2 assists this season

Madson has recorded 4 goals and 1 assist in the ongoing campaign

Emiliano Gómez convinces with 8 goals and 5 assists this season

Kevin Velasco has registered 3 assists and holds a 7.08 rating

Juan Pablo Vargas provides stability with 1 goal and a 6.86 rating

Goalkeepers

Sebastián Jurado is in goal for Juárez and holds an average rating of 6.67

He kept 3 clean sheets this season

Daniel Gutiérrez guards the goal for Puebla with a 6.91 rating

He has already recorded 6 clean sheets this season

Influences

The match takes place on natural grass at the Estadio Olímpico Benito Juárez

The goal average at this stadium is a high 3.4 goals per match

Both teams scored in all of the last 5 matches played at this venue

Ready to Get Started?

Create an account and discover data-driven football analyses. Cancel anytime.