Match report →
Juárez – Puebla0 : 1
Why the model thinks so
Juárez
1.50
Total xG
2.33
Puebla
0.84
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Juárez | Puebla |
|---|---|---|
| Attack weakness (0.71x league average) | −1.39 | |
| Defensive strength (2.3 conceded vs 1 league avg) | +1.27 | |
| High-scoring league (3.5 goals/match) | +1.00 | +1.00 |
| 5 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.6 goals/match) | −0.16 | |
| Declining form (0.6 vs 1.1 season average) | −0.16 | |
| Attack weakness (0.79x league average) | −0.10 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 18 vs 8, 10 places gap) | −0.09 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 8 vs 18, 10 places gap) | +0.07 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.4 goals/match) | −0.04 | |
| José Luis Rodríguez on the bench (4 goals, 9 assists) | ||
| Jairo Torres on the bench (4 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Rodolfo Pizarro not in squad (4 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Denzell García on the bench (3 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Francisco Nevárez on the bench (2 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Weak away record (0.9 vs 1.1 goals/match) | ||
| Full strength squad available |
Key factors
- Offense matchup: Juárez score consistently averaging 1.5 goals, while Puebla concede a high average of 2.57 goals per away match
- Mathematical advantage: The model calculates a 51% home win probability for Juárez
- Tactical edge: Juárez averaged 3.6 shots on target in recent matches compared to Puebla's low average of 2.6
Risks
- Loss of creativity: Juárez must compensate for 45% of seasonal assists missing, as key playmakers like José Luis Rodríguez (9 assists) are not in the lineup
- Defensive vulnerability: Juárez conceded an average of 1.74 goals per match this season, which increased to 2.2 in recent matches
All probabilities
Result
Juárez51%
Draw29%
Puebla19%
Goals
Over 1.569%
Under 1.531%
Over 2.541%
Under 2.559%
Over 3.521%
Under 3.579%
Double chance
Juárez or draw81%
Puebla or draw49%
No draw71%
Both teams score
Yes46%
No54%
Most likely scores
1:1
14%
1:0
13%
0:0
11%
2:0
11%
2:1
9%
0:1
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Juárez: scored only in H2 in 4 consecutive games (5 of 8 total)
- Puebla: 6 of 8 games without conceding in H1, but only 1 over 90 minutes
- Juárez: 75% of xG value comes in the second half (last 8 games with xG data)
- Juárez: 4 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)
- Puebla with Kevin Velasco: 0.5 goals/game. Without: 1 goals/game (6 of 8 games)
Lineups
Juárez 4-2-3-1 · Puebla 4-2-3-1
Juárez
- 1 S. Jurado Roca
- 20 J. Aquino Carmona
- 3 J. Murillo Largacha
- 23 Ó. Ortega Gatica
- 4 M. Mayorga Almaráz
- 15 L. Romero Gómez
- 6 Monchu
- 9 M. de Souza Silva
- 8 G. Castilho Carvalho
- 21 R. Oliveira António
- 19 O. Estupiñán Vallesilla
Puebla
- 28 R. Gutiérrez Hernández
- 12 I. Moreno
- 5 F. Almada
- 4 J. Vargas Campos
- 7 F. Monarrez Ochoa
- 16 A. Ramírez Jiménez
- 3 A. Herrera Rodríguez
- 26 K. Velasco Bonilla
- 24 A. Organista Orozco
- 11 E. Gómez Dutra
- 19 I. Maestro Puch
Substitutes
- 5 D. García Bojórquez
- 2 G. Sepúlveda López
- 11 J. Rodríguez Francis
- 33 F. Nevarez Pulgarin
- 29 E. Ayon
- 7 R. Fulgencio Román
- 10 Í. Torres Ramírez
- 17 L. Martínez Dupuy
- 27 G. Ruiz
- 201 J. Carmona Núñez
- 10 M. Tomás Borges
- 33 J. Rodríguez Trujillo
- 15 O. Villa Domínguez
- 22 C. Baltazar Agraz
- 8 O. Moreno Villegas
- 17 R. Castillo González
- 2 ?. Leyva
- 29 E. Mustre Torres
- 21 S. Sanabria Ortega
Ready to Get Started?
Create an account and discover data-driven football analyses. Cancel anytime.
Create Account →