Match report →
Querétaro – América0 : 1
Why the model thinks so
Querétaro
0.95
Total xG
2.18
América
1.22
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Querétaro | América |
|---|---|---|
| Attack weakness (0.75x league average) | −1.10 | |
| High-scoring league (3.5 goals/match) | +1.00 | +1.00 |
| Defensive strength (1.2 conceded vs 2 league avg) | −0.78 | |
| Attack weakness (0.79x league average) | −0.63 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.2 goals/match) | +0.15 | |
| Rising form (2.2 vs 1.7 season average) | +0.15 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.6 goals/match) | +0.13 | |
| Rising form (1.6 vs 1.2 season average) | +0.13 | |
| Defensive strength (1.6 conceded vs 1.5 league avg) | +0.11 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 12 vs 4, 8 places gap) | −0.08 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 4 vs 12, 8 places gap) | +0.05 | |
| Brian Rodríguez not in squad (13 goals, 7 assists) | ||
| Álex Zendejas not in squad (12 goals, 7 assists) | ||
| Jonathan dos Santos not in squad (0 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Israel Reyes not in squad (0 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| 57% of goal output missing (only 43% available) | ||
| Weak away record (1.2 vs 1.7 goals/match) |
Key factors
- Squad crisis for América: Only 43% of the regular starting lineup strength is available, with key performance leaders like Brian Rodríguez and Álex Zendejas missing
- Offensive form rise: Both teams score more frequently now compared to their season average, Querétaro at 1.6 vs 1.2 and América at 2.2 vs 1.7
- Tactical contrast: América averaged 5.2 shots on target recently with offensive focus, while Querétaro played counter-oriented with 40% average possession
Risks
- Defensive instability of the visitors: América conceded an average of 2.0 goals per match in recent games
- Historical winless streak: Querétaro failed to win any of the last 4 direct encounters against América
- Massive quality reduction for the favorites: The absence of key players drastically weakens América's technical level
All probabilities
Result
Querétaro27%
Draw32%
América41%
Double chance
Querétaro or draw59%
América or draw73%
No draw68%
Goals
Over 1.566%
Under 1.534%
Over 2.537%
Under 2.563%
Over 3.518%
Under 3.582%
Both teams score
Yes45%
No55%
Most likely scores
1:1
15%
0:0
13%
0:1
12%
1:0
9%
0:2
9%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- América with Ramón Juárez: 2.2 goals/game. Without: 0 goals/game (6 of 8 games)
- Querétaro with Jean Unjanque: 1.6 goals/game. Without: 0.3 goals/game (5 of 8 games)
- Querétaro: scored only after the break in 3 of 8 games
Lineups
Querétaro 4-2-3-1 · América 4-4-2
Querétaro
- 25 G. Allison Revuelta
- 24 B. Duarte
- 13 D. Reyes Rosales
- 2 L. Abascia
- 27 D. Parra Durán
- 4 C. García Prades
- 5 S. Homenchenko Bianchi
- 22 J. Unjanque
- 11 M. Coronel
- 35 J. Torres
- 9 A. Ávila Vega
América
- 30 R. Cota Robles
- 34 D. Espinoza Acosta
- 29 R. Del Castillo
- 32 M. Vázquez García
- 5 K. Álvarez Campos
- 12 I. Violante Romero
- 28 E. Sánchez Ocegueda
- 13 A. Cervantes Martín del Campo
- 26 C. Borja González
- 23 R. Cavalcante Veiga
- 9 H. Martín Mex
Substitutes
- 12 P. de Almeida Barbosa
- 16 E. Giménez Rojas
- 1 J. Hernández García
- 28 J. Arellano Camacho
- 15 C. Villanueva López
- 29 W. Madrid
- 26 E. Pérez Reyes
- 18 ?. Dueñas
- 20 A. Gutiérrez Torres
- 33 P. Salas
- 24 F. Rossano Erchuk
- 21 F. Tapia Méndez
- 19 J. Zúñiga Murillo
- 186 D. Arriaga García
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