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Liga MX

Querétaro - América

07/19/2026, 03:10 AM

0 : 1
Expected Goals
Querétaro
1.0
Total xG
2.2
América
1.2
Most Likely Scores

1:1

15%

0:0

13%

0:1

12%

1:0

9%

0:2

9%
What influences the xG?
QUEAMÉ

Querétaro

Attack weakness (0.79x league average)
-0.63
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.6 goals/match)
+0.13
Rising form (1.6 vs 1.2 season average)
+0.13
Defensive strength (1.6 conceded vs 1.5 league avg)
+0.11
Standings disadvantage (pos 12 vs 4, 8 places gap)
-0.08

América

Attack weakness (0.75x league average)
-1.10
Defensive strength (1.2 conceded vs 2 league avg)
-0.78
4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.2 goals/match)
+0.15
Rising form (2.2 vs 1.7 season average)
+0.15
Standings advantage (pos 4 vs 12, 8 places gap)
+0.05
Brian Rodríguez not in squad (13 goals, 7 assists)
Álex Zendejas not in squad (12 goals, 7 assists)
Jonathan dos Santos not in squad (0 goals, 2 assists)
Israel Reyes not in squad (0 goals, 2 assists)
57% of goal output missing (only 43% available)
Weak away record (1.2 vs 1.7 goals/match)

League

High-scoring league (3.5 goals/match)
+1.00
+1.00
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    América with Ramón Juárez: 2.2 goals/game. Without: 0 goals/game (6 of 8 games)

  • 2
    Querétaro with Jean Unjanque: 1.6 goals/game. Without: 0.3 goals/game (5 of 8 games)

  • 3
    Querétaro: scored only after the break in 3 of 8 games

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

27%

Draw

32%

Away Win

41%

Goals

Over 1.5

66%

Under 1.5

34%

Over 2.5

37%

Under 2.5

63%

Over 3.5

18%

Under 3.5

82%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

59%

Away or Draw

73%

No Draw

68%

Both Score

Yes

45%

No

55%

Key Factors
  • Squad crisis for América: Only 43% of the regular starting lineup strength is available, with key performance leaders like Brian Rodríguez and Álex Zendejas missing
  • Offensive form rise: Both teams score more frequently now compared to their season average, Querétaro at 1.6 vs 1.2 and América at 2.2 vs 1.7
  • Tactical contrast: América averaged 5.2 shots on target recently with offensive focus, while Querétaro played counter-oriented with 40% average possession
Risk Factors
  • Defensive instability of the visitors: América conceded an average of 2.0 goals per match in recent games
  • Historical winless streak: Querétaro failed to win any of the last 4 direct encounters against América
  • Massive quality reduction for the favorites: The absence of key players drastically weakens América's technical level
Overview

Querétaro hosts América at Estadio La Corregidora

Liga MX match on July 19, 2026, 5:10 AM

Both teams start the new season with zero points

The mathematical model projects an away win probability of 41%

Form

Querétaro is unbeaten in their last 5 matches with form DWDDW

The home side recorded 2 wins and 3 draws recently

América travels with a form of WWLDD

The visitors recently registered 2 wins, 2 draws, and 1 loss

Statistics

Querétaro scored an average of 1.06 goals and conceded 1.47 goals this season

Their home record shows 1.05 goals scored and only 0.91 conceded per game

América scored an average of 1.61 goals and conceded 1.16 goals per match

The visitors conceded an average of 1.41 goals in away matches

Head-to-Head

América dominates the head-to-head history with 4 wins from 4 matches

The goal difference stands at 2:7 in favor of the visitors

The last encounter on March 7, 2026, ended in a 1-2 away win for América

Key Players

Alí Ávila has already scored 11 goals this season

Santiago Homenchenko contributed 6 goals this season from defense

Henry Martin has 1 goal and 1 assist for América with a rising form trend

Goalkeepers

Guillermo Allison is in goal for Querétaro with a season average rating of 6.95

Rodolfo Cota guards the net for América with a season average rating of 6.77

Influences

The match will be played on natural grass at Estadio La Corregidora

Matches at this stadium averaged 2.4 goals with an 80% BTTS rate

Querétaro benefited from a stable defense in their home games this season

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