Match report →
Monterrey – Santos Laguna3 : 2
Why the model thinks so
Monterrey
2.09
Total xG
3.04
Santos Laguna
0.95
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Monterrey | Santos Laguna |
|---|---|---|
| High-scoring league (3.6 goals/match) | +1.10 | +1.10 |
| Attack weakness (0.64x league average) | −1.09 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.8 goals/match) | −0.26 | |
| Defensive strength (1.6 conceded vs 1.8 league avg) | −0.23 | |
| Declining form (1 vs 1.6 season average) | −0.20 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 5 vs 11, 6 places gap) | +0.06 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 11 vs 5, 6 places gap) | −0.06 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match) | −0.01 | |
| Fidel Ambríz on the bench (2 goals, 0 assists) | ||
| 17% of goal output missing (only 95% available) | ||
| Aldo López on the bench (4 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Fran Villalba on the bench (3 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Bruno Amione not in squad (3 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| 36% of goal output missing (only 86% available) | ||
| Weak away record (1 vs 1.2 goals/match) |
Key factors
- Defensive matchup: Monterrey concede avg. 1.10 goals at home, whereas Santos Laguna concede avg. 3.14 on the road
- Tactical output: Monterrey averaged 5.2 shots on target in recent matches compared to only 2.4 for the visitors
- Squad impact: Santos Laguna are without Aldo López, Fran Villalba, and Bruno Amione, reducing starting XI strength to 87%
Risks
- Declining trend: Monterrey's recent goal scoring average dropped to 1.0 goals compared to their 1.7 season average
- H2H warning: Monterrey lost the most recent encounter on April 26, 2026, by a clear 0-3 margin
- Suspended defenders: Both teams must replace key defensive players due to yellow card suspensions
All probabilities
Result
Monterrey62%
Draw23%
Santos Laguna15%
Double chance
Monterrey or draw85%
Santos Laguna or draw38%
No draw77%
Goals
Over 1.582%
Under 1.518%
Over 2.559%
Under 2.541%
Over 3.536%
Under 3.564%
Both teams score
Yes55%
No45%
Most likely scores
1:1
11%
2:0
10%
2:1
10%
3:0
7%
3:1
7%
3:2
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Monterrey: 5 of 8 games without conceding in H1, but only 1 over 90 minutes
- Santos Laguna: 5 of 8 games without conceding in H1, but only 1 over 90 minutes
- Monterrey with Luis Reyes: 1.4 goals/game. Without: 0.3 goals/game (5 of 8 games)
- Santos Laguna with Kevin Oswaldo Picón Álvarez: 1.3 goals/game. Without: 0.5 goals/game (6 of 8 games)
- Santos Laguna: 73% of xG value comes in the second half (last 8 games with xG data)
Lineups
Monterrey 4-2-3-1 · Santos Laguna 4-2-3-1
Monterrey
- 22 L. Cárdenas López
- 2 R. Chávez Soto
- 33 J. Medina Ramírez
- 19 D. Aceves Patiño
- 3 G. Arteaga Zamora
- 8 Ó. Torres Muñoz
- 30 J. Rodriguez
- 10 L. Orellano
- 17 J. Corona Ruíz
- 7 L. Ocampos
- 9 D. Rossi Marachlian
Santos Laguna
- 1 C. Acevedo López
- 4 J. Abella Fanjul
- 18 F. Pardo
- 25 F. Sanchez
- 3 M. Cuevas
- 8 S. Mariscal Murra
- 11 C. Gruezo Arboleda
- 7 D. Gonzalez Alcaraz
- 10 E. Bullaude
- 26 R. Sordo
- 9 L. Di Yorio
Substitutes
- 4 V. Guzmán Olmedo
- 11 I. Fimbres Ochoa
- 5 F. Ambríz
- 31 C. Ramos Becerra
- 32 U. Đurđević
- 21 L. Reyes Moreno
- 27 R. De La Rosa González
- 194 C. Reyes Bermúdez
- 200 O. Gálvez Vidales
- 18 C. Garza Cantu
- 19 E. Aguirre Lara
- 14 E. Orona Zavala
- 5 A. López Vargas
- 21 F. Villalba Rodrigo
- 24 D. Medina Vázquez
- 33 H. Holguín
- 28 J. Pérez Sánchez
- 22 K. Picón Álvarez
- 15 J. Mancha García
- 192 J. Ulloa
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