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Liga MX

Monterrey - Santos Laguna

07/19/2026, 01:05 AM

3 : 2
Expected Goals
Monterrey
2.1
Total xG
3.0
Santos Laguna
0.9
Most Likely Scores

1:1

11%

2:0

10%

2:1

10%

3:0

7%

3:1

7%
What influences the xG?
MONSL

Monterrey

4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.8 goals/match)
-0.26
Defensive strength (1.6 conceded vs 1.8 league avg)
-0.23
Declining form (1 vs 1.6 season average)
-0.20
Standings advantage (pos 5 vs 11, 6 places gap)
+0.06
Fidel AmbrĂ­z on the bench (2 goals, 0 assists)
17% of goal output missing (only 95% available)

Santos Laguna

Attack weakness (0.64x league average)
-1.09
Standings disadvantage (pos 11 vs 5, 6 places gap)
-0.06
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match)
-0.01
Aldo LĂłpez on the bench (4 goals, 1 assists)
Fran Villalba on the bench (3 goals, 2 assists)
Bruno Amione not in squad (3 goals, 1 assists)
36% of goal output missing (only 86% available)
Weak away record (1 vs 1.2 goals/match)

League

High-scoring league (3.6 goals/match)
+1.10
+1.10
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Monterrey: 5 of 8 games without conceding in H1, but only 1 over 90 minutes

  • 2
    Santos Laguna: 5 of 8 games without conceding in H1, but only 1 over 90 minutes

  • 3
    Monterrey with Luis Reyes: 1.4 goals/game. Without: 0.3 goals/game (5 of 8 games)

  • 4
    Santos Laguna with Kevin Oswaldo Picón Álvarez: 1.3 goals/game. Without: 0.5 goals/game (6 of 8 games)

  • 5
    Santos Laguna: 73% of xG value comes in the second half (last 8 games with xG data)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

62%

Draw

23%

Away Win

15%

Goals

Over 1.5

82%

Under 1.5

18%

Over 2.5

59%

Under 2.5

41%

Over 3.5

36%

Under 3.5

64%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

85%

Away or Draw

38%

No Draw

77%

Both Score

Yes

55%

No

45%

Key Factors
  • Defensive matchup: Monterrey concede avg. 1.10 goals at home, whereas Santos Laguna concede avg. 3.14 on the road
  • Tactical output: Monterrey averaged 5.2 shots on target in recent matches compared to only 2.4 for the visitors
  • Squad impact: Santos Laguna are without Aldo LĂłpez, Fran Villalba, and Bruno Amione, reducing starting XI strength to 87%
Risk Factors
  • Declining trend: Monterrey's recent goal scoring average dropped to 1.0 goals compared to their 1.7 season average
  • H2H warning: Monterrey lost the most recent encounter on April 26, 2026, by a clear 0-3 margin
  • Suspended defenders: Both teams must replace key defensive players due to yellow card suspensions
Overview

Monterrey (11th place, 0 points) host Santos Laguna (6th place, 0 points) at the Estadio BBVA Bancomer

Liga MX match on July 19, 2026, 3:05 AM

The mathematical model predicts a clear favorite role for the home team with a 63% win probability

Form

Monterrey form: LDLWL (W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)

Monterrey's goal production is currently slowing down to 1.0 goals per game compared to their season average of 1.7

Santos Laguna form: DLLLW (W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)

The visitors remain consistent in front of goal, averaging 1.2 goals per game recently

Statistics

Monterrey score an average of 1.62 goals at home and concede 1.10

Santos Laguna concede an average of 3.14 goals per away game

The away side failed to keep a single clean sheet on the road this season

Head-to-Head

4 head-to-head matches recorded

Monterrey lead with 3 wins compared to 1 win for Santos Laguna

The last direct encounter ended in a clear 3-0 victory for Santos Laguna

Key Players

Lucas Ocampos is a key attacker for Monterrey with 7 goals and 6 assists

Óliver Torres has contributed 2 goals and 8 assists in midfield for the home side

Lucas Di Yorio leads the Santos Laguna attack with 6 goals this season

Goalkeepers

Luis CĂĄrdenas is in goal for Monterrey, averaging a 6.99 rating this season

Carlos Acevedo plays in goal for Santos Laguna, holding a season rating of 6.93

Monterrey recorded 10 clean sheets this season, while Santos Laguna achieved 6

Influences

The match will be played on natural grass at the Estadio BBVA Bancomer

The stadium averages 3.2 goals per match with a 60% rate of over 2.5 goals

Strong home performance meets an extremely vulnerable away defense

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