Premier League
Sunderland - Brighton & Hove Albion
03/14/2026, 03:00 PM
Expected Goals
1.1
2.3
1.2
1:1
15%0:0
12%0:1
10%1:0
10%1:2
8%What influences the xG?
Sunderland
Brighton & Hove Albion
Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
32%
Draw
32%
Away Win
35%
Goals
Over 1.5
68%
Under 1.5
32%
Over 2.5
39%
Under 2.5
61%
Over 3.5
19%
Under 3.5
81%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
65%
Away or Draw
68%
No Draw
68%
Both Score
Yes
48%
No
52%
Key Factors
- The mathematical analysis predicts a high probability of a close match with a slight advantage for Brighton (35% win probability)
- According to the pipeline model, the expected goals are very close: Sunderland at 1.10 and Brighton at 1.16
- The goal production of both teams is currently stalling, showing a negative form trend
Risk Factors
- Brighton & Hove Albion concedes an average of 1.67 goals per away game
- Sunderland's goal production is currently low (0.8), while the season average is 1.1
Overview
Sunderland (11th place, 40 points) host Brighton & Hove Albion (14th place, 37 points) at the Stadium of Light
Premier League match on March 14, 2026, 4:00 PM
Both teams are in the mid-table and are fighting for a better position
Form
Sunderland's form across all competitions: WLDWL
This means 2 wins, 1 draw, and 2 losses in the last 5 games
They recently suffered a loss
Brighton's form across all competitions: LLWWL
This indicates 2 wins and 3 losses in the last 5 games
Brighton also recently experienced a loss
W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss
Statistics
Sunderland scores an average of 1.03 goals per game and concedes 1.17 goals
At home, the average is 1.05 goals scored and 0.62 goals conceded per home game
Sunderland kept 9 clean sheets
Brighton scores an average of 1.31 goals per game and concedes 1.24 goals
Away from home, Brighton scores 1.33 goals and concedes 1.67 goals per away game
Brighton achieved 6 clean sheets
At the Stadium of Light, an average of 2.2 total goals were scored per game, and both teams scored in 2 out of 5 matches
More than 2.5 goals were scored in 3 out of 5 matches
Head-to-Head
In 2 head-to-head matches, there has been 1 draw and 1 win for Sunderland
Brighton has not won a direct encounter yet
The last meeting on December 20, 2025, ended in a 0-0 draw
Sunderland has been dominant in recent encounters
Key Players
For Sunderland, Brian Brobbey (5 goals, 1 assist, Avg. 6.71 rating), Granit Xhaka (1 goal, 5 assists, Avg. 7.15 rating), and Chemsdine Talbi (3 goals, 1 assist, Avg. 6.63 rating) are important players
Not nominated: Enzo Le FĂ©e (4T/4A), Nordi Mukiele (1T/4A)
For Brighton, Danny Welbeck (10 goals, 0 assists, Avg. 6.75 rating), Diego GĂłmez (5 goals, 0 assists, Avg. 6.80 rating), and Jan Paul van Hecke (3 goals, 2 assists, Avg. 7.07 rating) are among the key performers
Not nominated: Kaoru Mitoma (2T/1A)
Goalkeepers
Melker Ellborg is in goal for Sunderland
Sunderland has kept 9 clean sheets this season
Bart Verbruggen is the goalkeeper for Brighton
Brighton has achieved 6 clean sheets this season
Influences
Sunderland benefits from their home advantage, with an average of 1.05 goals scored and only 0.62 goals conceded per home game
The Stadium of Light is known for an average of 2.2 goals per game
In 60% of the last 5 matches at the stadium, more than 2.5 goals were scored