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Liga MX

Santos Laguna - Atlas

07/26/2026, 03:00 AM

0 : 1
Expected Goals
Santos Laguna
1.5
Total xG
2.3
Atlas
0.9
Most Likely Scores

1:1

14%

1:0

12%

0:0

11%

2:0

10%

2:1

9%
What influences the xG?
SLATL

Santos Laguna

Defensive strength (2 conceded vs 1.3 league avg)
+0.68
3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.4 goals/match)
+0.04
Aldo LĂłpez on the bench (4 goals, 1 assists)
Bruno Amione not in squad (3 goals, 1 assists)
13% of goal output missing (only 90% available)

Atlas

Attack weakness (0.54x league average)
-0.83
Defensive weakness (1.8 conceded vs 1.5 league avg)
+0.29
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match)
-0.05
Diego GonzĂĄlez not in squad (6 goals, 7 assists)
Eduardo Aguirre not in squad (2 goals, 2 assists)
Paulo RamĂ­rez on the bench (2 goals, 0 assists)
25% of goal output missing (only 68% available)
Weak away record (0.8 vs 1.4 goals/match)
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Santos Laguna with Diego Medina: 1.5 goals/game. Without: 0 goals/game (6 of 8 games)

  • 2
    Atlas with AgustĂ­n RodrĂ­guez: 0.5 goals/game. Without: 2 goals/game (6 of 8 games)

  • 3
    Atlas: 70% of xG value comes in the second half (last 8 games with xG data)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

49%

Draw

30%

Away Win

21%

Goals

Over 1.5

70%

Under 1.5

30%

Over 2.5

42%

Under 2.5

58%

Over 3.5

21%

Under 3.5

79%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

79%

Away or Draw

51%

No Draw

70%

Both Score

Yes

47%

No

53%

Key Factors
  • Santos Laguna has a 49% home win probability in the model benefiting from Atlas's away defensive struggles
  • Santos Laguna is currently scoring more frequently with 1.4 goals compared to their season average of 1.3
  • Atlas averaged 3.4 shots on target in recent matches compared to Santos Laguna's 2.2
Risk Factors
  • Atlas is weakened as only 69% of their typical starting lineup strength is active with key players like Diego GonzĂĄlez missing
  • Atlas concedes an average of 2.46 goals per away game this season
  • Santos Laguna averaged only 2.2 shots on target in recent matches
Overview

Santos Laguna host Atlas at the Estadio Nuevo Corona

Liga MX match on July 26, 2026, 5:00 AM

Santos Laguna sit in 14th place with 0 points while Atlas occupy 7th place with 3 points

The mathematical model predicts a home win probability of 49%

Form

Santos Laguna's form is LLLWL and they lost 2-3 against Monterrey in their last match

Atlas's form is DWLLW after winning 3-2 against LeĂłn in their last game

The home team has only recorded 1 win in their last 5 matches

Statistics

Santos Laguna score an average of 1.24 goals and concede 1.94 goals per match

In home games Santos Laguna concede 1.1 goals on average while scoring 1.25 goals

Atlas concede an average of 2.46 goals in away games while scoring 1.15 goals

Head-to-Head

In 4 head-to-head matches Santos Laguna won 1, Atlas won 2, and 1 ended in a draw

The last match on April 19, 2026, ended in a 0-1 away victory for Atlas

Atlas is the historically dominant side in recent meetings

Key Players

Lucas Di Yorio scored 6 goals and provided 3 assists with a 6.9 rating this season

Ezequiel Bullaude contributed 5 goals and 4 assists with a 7.02 rating

Fran Villalba has 3 goals and 2 assists with a rising form trend

For Atlas Arturo GonzĂĄlez scored 7 goals without an assist with a 6.88 rating

Aldo Rocha recorded 1 goal and 2 assists with a 6.69 rating

Manuel Capasso contributes with 2 goals and a 7.19 rating

Goalkeepers

Carlos Acevedo plays for Santos Laguna with 6 clean sheets and a 6.93 average rating

Camilo Vargas starts for Atlas with 10 clean sheets and a 6.87 rating

Influences

The game is played on natural grass at the Estadio Nuevo Corona

Stadium statistics show an average of 2.4 goals per match with a BTTS rate of 60%

Atlas has a notable away weakness conceding 2.46 goals per match on the road

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