Match report →
Santos Laguna – Atlas0 : 1
Why the model thinks so
Santos Laguna
1.46
Total xG
2.35
Atlas
0.89
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Santos Laguna | Atlas |
|---|---|---|
| Attack weakness (0.54x league average) | −0.83 | |
| Defensive strength (2 conceded vs 1.3 league avg) | +0.68 | |
| Defensive weakness (1.8 conceded vs 1.5 league avg) | +0.29 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match) | −0.05 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.4 goals/match) | +0.04 | |
| Aldo López on the bench (4 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Bruno Amione not in squad (3 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| 13% of goal output missing (only 90% available) | ||
| Diego González not in squad (6 goals, 7 assists) | ||
| Eduardo Aguirre not in squad (2 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Paulo Ramírez on the bench (2 goals, 0 assists) | ||
| 25% of goal output missing (only 68% available) | ||
| Weak away record (0.8 vs 1.4 goals/match) |
Key factors
- Santos Laguna has a 49% home win probability in the model benefiting from Atlas's away defensive struggles
- Santos Laguna is currently scoring more frequently with 1.4 goals compared to their season average of 1.3
- Atlas averaged 3.4 shots on target in recent matches compared to Santos Laguna's 2.2
Risks
- Atlas is weakened as only 69% of their typical starting lineup strength is active with key players like Diego González missing
- Atlas concedes an average of 2.46 goals per away game this season
- Santos Laguna averaged only 2.2 shots on target in recent matches
All probabilities
Result
Santos Laguna49%
Draw30%
Atlas21%
Double chance
Santos Laguna or draw79%
Atlas or draw51%
No draw70%
Goals
Over 1.570%
Under 1.530%
Over 2.542%
Under 2.558%
Over 3.521%
Under 3.579%
Both teams score
Yes47%
No53%
Most likely scores
1:1
14%
1:0
12%
0:0
11%
2:0
10%
2:1
9%
0:1
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Santos Laguna with Diego Medina: 1.5 goals/game. Without: 0 goals/game (6 of 8 games)
- Atlas with Agustín Rodríguez: 0.5 goals/game. Without: 2 goals/game (6 of 8 games)
- Atlas: 70% of xG value comes in the second half (last 8 games with xG data)
Lineups
Santos Laguna 4-2-3-1 · Atlas 4-2-3-1
Santos Laguna
- 1 C. Acevedo López
- 3 M. Cuevas
- 18 F. Pardo
- 25 F. Sanchez
- 17 E. Echeverría Mata
- 8 S. Mariscal Murra
- 11 C. Gruezo Arboleda
- 21 F. Villalba Rodrigo
- 10 E. Bullaude
- 26 R. Sordo
- 9 L. Di Yorio
Atlas
- 12 C. Vargas Gil
- 2 G. Ferrareis
- 28 M. Capasso
- 21 R. Schlegel
- 16 M. Valenzuela
- 26 A. Rocha González
- 6 E. Zaldivar Valverde
- 11 L. Lopes
- 58 A. González González
- 23 S. Hernández Flores
- 8 R. Mmaee Nwambeben Kabir
Substitutes
- 7 D. Gonzalez Alcaraz
- 19 E. Aguirre Lara
- 14 E. Orona Zavala
- 4 J. Abella Fanjul
- 5 A. López Vargas
- 6 J. Güemez López
- 24 D. Medina Vázquez
- 33 H. Holguín
- 22 K. Picón Álvarez
- 15 J. Mancha García
- 3 J. Sánchez Ramos
- 10 L. Leite Esteves
- 4 A. Mora Barraza
- 13 G. Aguirre Ledesma
- 17 J. Lozano Silva
- 22 A. Sánchez Montes De Oca
- 27 V. Hugo Ríos de Alba
- 192 J. Serrato Zambrano
- 203 José Martín
- 15 P. Ramírez Barboza
Ready to Get Started?
Create an account and discover data-driven football analyses. Cancel anytime.
Create Account →