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Liga MX

Necaxa - Monterrey

07/26/2026, 11:00 PM

2 : 1
Expected Goals
Necaxa
1.5
Total xG
2.4
Monterrey
0.9
Most Likely Scores

1:1

14%

1:0

12%

0:0

10%

2:0

10%

2:1

9%
What influences the xG?
NECMON

Necaxa

Defensive strength (1.8 conceded vs 1.2 league avg)
+0.51
Standings disadvantage (pos 13 vs 5, 8 places gap)
-0.13
4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match)
-0.11
Tomás Badaloni not in squad (8 goals, 2 assists)
Alexis Peña on the bench (2 goals, 0 assists)
Cristian Calderón not in squad (1 goals, 1 assists)
20% of goal output missing (only 78% available)

Monterrey

Attack weakness (0.6x league average)
-0.86
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match)
-0.14
Defensive weakness (1.6 conceded vs 1.5 league avg)
+0.08
Standings advantage (pos 5 vs 13, 8 places gap)
+0.04
Fidel Ambríz on the bench (2 goals, 0 assists)
10% of goal output missing (only 97% available)
Weak away record (1.2 vs 1.7 goals/match)
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Monterrey with Luis Reyes: 1.7 goals/game. Without: 0.5 goals/game (6 of 8 games)

  • 2
    Necaxa with Israel Tello: 1.8 goals/game. Without: 0.3 goals/game (4 of 7 games)

  • 3
    Monterrey: 4 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)

  • 4
    Monterrey: 70% of xG value comes in the first half (last 8 games with xG data)

  • 5
    Necaxa: scored only after the break in 3 of 8 games

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

49%

Draw

29%

Away Win

22%

Goals

Over 1.5

71%

Under 1.5

29%

Over 2.5

44%

Under 2.5

56%

Over 3.5

23%

Under 3.5

77%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

78%

Away or Draw

51%

No Draw

71%

Both Score

Yes

49%

No

51%

Key Factors
  • H2H dominance: Monterrey won all last 4 meetings against Necaxa without conceding a single goal
  • Offensive volume: Monterrey averaged 6.4 shots on target in recent matches, compared to only 2.2 for Necaxa
  • Missing key players: Necaxa is without Tomás Badaloni, Alexis Peña, and Cristian Calderón, leaving only 79% of active goals available
Risk Factors
  • Away defense vulnerability: Monterrey concedes an average of 2.06 goals per away game
  • Low scoring threat: Necaxa averaged only 2.2 shots on target per match in recent games
  • Goalkeeping absence: Monterrey's starting goalkeeper E. Andrada is suspended due to a red card
Overview

Necaxa hosts Monterrey at the Estadio Victoria de Aguascalientes

Liga MX match on July 26, 2026, at 11:00 PM

Both teams started their season with a victory

Monterrey sits in 7th place, with Necaxa right behind in 8th place

The mathematical model predicts a home win probability of 49%

Form

Necaxa shows form LDDLW with 1 win, 2 draws, and 2 losses

Monterrey arrives with form DLWLW, consisting of 2 wins, 1 draw, and 2 losses

Both teams recorded a victory in their most recent match

W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

Statistics

Necaxa averages 1.26 goals scored and 1.68 goals conceded this season

At home, Necaxa is defensively more stable, conceding an average of 1.00 goals per match

Monterrey averages 1.61 goals scored and 1.53 goals conceded per game

Away from home, Monterrey's defense is more vulnerable, conceding an average of 2.06 goals

Head-to-Head

Monterrey historically dominated the last 4 head-to-head matches with 4 wins

The goal difference stands at 7-0 in favor of the visitors

The last meeting on January 14, 2026, ended in a 2-0 victory for Monterrey

Necaxa failed to score a single goal in any of these encounters

Key Players

Javier Ruiz scored 5 goals with a 7.09 rating this season

Julián Carranza recorded 3 goals in 6 season appearances

Ricardo Monreal contributed 4 season goals and 2 assists

Lucas Ocampos impresses with 7 goals and 6 assists this season

Óliver Torres stands out with 8 assists and an average rating of 7.14

Jesús Corona recorded 4 goals and 4 assists this season

Goalkeepers

Necaxa goalkeeper Luis Jiménez has 0 appearances this season

Luis Cárdenas guards Monterrey's goal with 21 season appearances and a 6.99 rating

Influences

The match will be played on natural grass at the Estadio Victoria de Aguascalientes

Historical venue stats show an average of 2.2 goals per game

Both teams scored in 3 of the last 5 matches played at this stadium

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