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Necaxa – Monterrey2 : 1
Why the model thinks so
Necaxa
1.51
Total xG
2.43
Monterrey
0.93
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Necaxa | Monterrey |
|---|---|---|
| Attack weakness (0.6x league average) | −0.86 | |
| Defensive strength (1.8 conceded vs 1.2 league avg) | +0.51 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match) | −0.14 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 13 vs 5, 8 places gap) | −0.13 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match) | −0.11 | |
| Defensive weakness (1.6 conceded vs 1.5 league avg) | +0.08 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 5 vs 13, 8 places gap) | +0.04 | |
| Tomás Badaloni not in squad (8 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Alexis Peña on the bench (2 goals, 0 assists) | ||
| Cristian Calderón not in squad (1 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| 20% of goal output missing (only 78% available) | ||
| Fidel Ambríz on the bench (2 goals, 0 assists) | ||
| 10% of goal output missing (only 97% available) | ||
| Weak away record (1.2 vs 1.7 goals/match) |
Key factors
- H2H dominance: Monterrey won all last 4 meetings against Necaxa without conceding a single goal
- Offensive volume: Monterrey averaged 6.4 shots on target in recent matches, compared to only 2.2 for Necaxa
- Missing key players: Necaxa is without Tomás Badaloni, Alexis Peña, and Cristian Calderón, leaving only 79% of active goals available
Risks
- Away defense vulnerability: Monterrey concedes an average of 2.06 goals per away game
- Low scoring threat: Necaxa averaged only 2.2 shots on target per match in recent games
- Goalkeeping absence: Monterrey's starting goalkeeper E. Andrada is suspended due to a red card
All probabilities
Result
Necaxa49%
Draw29%
Monterrey22%
Double chance
Necaxa or draw78%
Monterrey or draw51%
No draw71%
Goals
Over 1.571%
Under 1.529%
Over 2.544%
Under 2.556%
Over 3.523%
Under 3.577%
Both teams score
Yes49%
No51%
Most likely scores
1:1
14%
1:0
12%
0:0
10%
2:0
10%
2:1
9%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Monterrey with Luis Reyes: 1.7 goals/game. Without: 0.5 goals/game (6 of 8 games)
- Necaxa with Israel Tello: 1.8 goals/game. Without: 0.3 goals/game (4 of 7 games)
- Monterrey: 4 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)
- Monterrey: 70% of xG value comes in the first half (last 8 games with xG data)
- Necaxa: scored only after the break in 3 of 8 games
Lineups
Necaxa 3-4-2-1 · Monterrey 4-2-3-1
Necaxa
- 12 L. Jiménez González
- 33 R. Martínez Ruiz
- 20 F. Méndez Lara
- 3 A. Oliveros Cano
- 30 R. Monreal Morales
- 8 L. Faravelli
- 6 D. Leyva
- 88 C. Vargas Tenorio
- 11 J. Torres Patiño
- 10 J. Ruiz
- 9 J. Carranza
Monterrey
- 22 L. Cárdenas López
- 2 R. Chávez Soto
- 33 J. Medina Ramírez
- 13 C. Salcedo Hernández
- 3 G. Arteaga Zamora
- 8 Ó. Torres Muñoz
- 30 J. Rodriguez
- 10 L. Orellano
- 17 J. Corona Ruíz
- 7 L. Ocampos
- 9 D. Rossi Marachlian
Substitutes
- 5 K. Marques Naves
- 16 P. Pedraza Reyna
- 2 E. Martínez González
- 17 R. Cortéz Pineda
- 99 Miguel Rodriguez
- 14 M. Zaleta
- 1 C. Andrade Martín
- 21 M. Espíndola
- 90 J. Valencia Longa
- 27 M. Pedroza
- 25 O. Pineda Alvarado
- 4 V. Guzmán Olmedo
- 11 I. Fimbres Ochoa
- 99 H. Cuypers
- 5 F. Ambríz
- 31 C. Ramos Becerra
- 32 U. Đurđević
- 21 L. Reyes Moreno
- 19 D. Aceves Patiño
- 194 C. Reyes Bermúdez
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