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Liga MX

Tigres UANL - Atlético San Luis

07/26/2026, 03:00 AM

2 : 2
Expected Goals
Tigres UANL
2.1
Total xG
2.8
Atlético San Luis
0.7
Most Likely Scores

2:0

13%

1:1

10%

2:1

9%

3:0

9%

3:1

6%
What influences the xG?
TUASL

Tigres UANL

Standings advantage (pos 2 vs 15, 13 places gap)
+0.13
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.8 goals/match)
-0.06
Defensive strength (1.2 conceded vs 1.3 league avg)
-0.05
Ángel Correa not in squad (16 goals, 12 assists)
Rodrigo Aguirre not in squad (1 goals, 2 assists)
Jesús Angulo not in squad (2 goals, 0 assists)

Atlético San Luis

Defensive weakness (1.7 conceded vs 1.5 league avg)
+0.19
Standings disadvantage (pos 15 vs 2, 13 places gap)
-0.10
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match)
-0.08
João Pedro not in squad (26 goals, 1 assists)
62% of goal output missing (only 58% available)
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Tigres UANL with Diego Sánchez: 2.3 goals/game. Without: 0 goals/game (6 of 8 games)

  • 2
    Atlético San Luis: scored only after the break in 4 of 8 games

  • 3
    Tigres UANL: 69% of xG value comes in the second half (last 8 games with xG data)

  • 4
    Atlético San Luis with Anderson Duarte: 1.6 goals/game. Without: 0.7 goals/game (5 of 8 games)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

68%

Draw

22%

Away Win

10%

Goals

Over 1.5

78%

Under 1.5

22%

Over 2.5

52%

Under 2.5

48%

Over 3.5

30%

Under 3.5

70%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

90%

Away or Draw

32%

No Draw

78%

Both Score

Yes

45%

No

55%

Key Factors
  • Tigres averaged 6.4 shots on target per match in recent games
  • Tigres' strong home defense (0.59 goals conceded) meets the visitors' weak away defense (1.67 goals conceded)
  • The mathematical model calculates a home win probability of 68%
Risk Factors
  • João Pedro is missing, meaning only 58% of the seasonal goal threat is available
  • Tigres recently conceded an average of 1.75 goals, which is higher than their season average of 1.24
Overview

Tigres UANL host Atlético San Luis at the Estadio Universitario de Nuevo León

Liga MX match on July 26, 2026, 5:00 AM

Both teams started the new season with a defeat

Tigres currently sit in 18th place while Atlético San Luis are in 13th

Form

Tigres UANL with a form of DWWLL in their last matches

The home side has recently suffered two consecutive defeats

Atlético San Luis show a form of DLWLL

The visitors also recorded two straight losses

Statistics

Tigres score an average of 1.79 goals and concede 1.05 goals per game

At home their defense is extremely stable, conceding just 0.59 goals per match

Atlético San Luis score an average of 1.44 goals and concede 1.65 goals

On the road the visitors concede an average of 1.67 goals per game

Head-to-Head

Tigres dominated the recent head-to-head matches as the home side

There are 5 head-to-head matches in total in the database

The last match ended in a 2-1 win for Tigres on January 12, 2026

The total goal difference is 8-6 in favor of Tigres

Key Players

Juan Brunetta scored 19 goals and provided 9 assists

Ozziel Herrera has 7 goals and 4 assists this season

Diego Lainez contributed 6 goals and 7 assists so far

Sébastien Salles-Lamonge scored 5 goals and provided 6 assists

Leonardo Flores has 1 goal and 1 assist so far

Román Torres scored 1 goal and provided 2 assists

Goalkeepers

Nahuel Guzmán is in goal for Tigres with 14 clean sheets

Andrés Sánchez guards the net for Atlético San Luis with 7 clean sheets so far

Influences

Home advantage based on home goals scored and goals conceded

Tigres conceded an average of only 0.59 goals per game at home

The match will be played on natural grass at the Estadio Universitario de Nuevo León

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