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Tigres UANL – Atlético San Luis2 : 2
Why the model thinks so
Tigres UANL
2.07
Total xG
2.77
Atlético San Luis
0.70
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Tigres UANL | Atlético San Luis |
|---|---|---|
| Defensive weakness (1.7 conceded vs 1.5 league avg) | +0.19 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 2 vs 15, 13 places gap) | +0.13 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 15 vs 2, 13 places gap) | −0.10 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match) | −0.08 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.8 goals/match) | −0.06 | |
| Defensive strength (1.2 conceded vs 1.3 league avg) | −0.05 | |
| Ángel Correa not in squad (16 goals, 12 assists) | ||
| Rodrigo Aguirre not in squad (1 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Jesús Angulo not in squad (2 goals, 0 assists) | ||
| João Pedro not in squad (26 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| 62% of goal output missing (only 58% available) |
Key factors
- Tigres averaged 6.4 shots on target per match in recent games
- Tigres' strong home defense (0.59 goals conceded) meets the visitors' weak away defense (1.67 goals conceded)
- The mathematical model calculates a home win probability of 68%
Risks
- João Pedro is missing, meaning only 58% of the seasonal goal threat is available
- Tigres recently conceded an average of 1.75 goals, which is higher than their season average of 1.24
All probabilities
Result
Tigres UANL68%
Draw22%
Atlético San Luis10%
Double chance
Tigres UANL or draw90%
Atlético San Luis or draw32%
No draw78%
Goals
Over 1.578%
Under 1.522%
Over 2.552%
Under 2.548%
Over 3.530%
Under 3.570%
Both teams score
Yes45%
No55%
Most likely scores
2:0
13%
1:1
10%
2:1
9%
3:0
9%
3:1
6%
2:2
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Tigres UANL with Diego Sánchez: 2.3 goals/game. Without: 0 goals/game (6 of 8 games)
- Atlético San Luis: scored only after the break in 4 of 8 games
- Tigres UANL: 69% of xG value comes in the second half (last 8 games with xG data)
- Atlético San Luis with Anderson Duarte: 1.6 goals/game. Without: 0.7 goals/game (5 of 8 games)
Lineups
Tigres UANL 4-2-3-1 · Atlético San Luis 3-4-2-1
Tigres UANL
- 1 N. Guzmán
- 14 J. Garza García
- 28 J. Pereira Silva
- 23 R. Zanre Zwarg
- 32 V. Loroña Aguilar
- 8 F. Gorriarán Fontes
- 5 C. Araújo Vilches
- 16 D. Lainez Leyva
- 11 J. Brunetta
- 30 D. Sánchez Guevara
- 77 J. Herrera Morales
Atlético San Luis
- 1 A. Sánchez Rodríguez
- 2 R. Torres Acosta
- 3 R. Alves de Barros
- 14 M. Garcia Alvarez
- 31 E. Águila Castro
- 16 L. Esteves Souza
- 11 D. Rodríguez Uribe
- 21 Ó. Macías Mora
- 10 S. Salles Lamonge
- 22 S. Romero
- 20 L. Flores
Substitutes
- 15 A. Franco
- 6 J. Vigón Cham
- 25 C. Rodríguez Rangel
- 19 M. Laínez Leyva
- 33 R. Guerrero Ramirez
- 26 F. Ordóñez Delgado
- 205 A. de María y Campos Moreno
- 193 M. Villarreal
- 198 I.Galván
- 197 Á. E. R. García
- 17 A. Duarte da Silva
- 18 A. Cruz Sánchez
- 8 L. Nájera Reyna
- 26 S. Pérez Bouquet Pérez
- 5 R. Meraz Bernal
- 25 M. Lajud Bojalil
- 30 B. Galindo Cruz
- 19 S. Muñóz Robles
- 13 J. Caicedo Caicedo
- 242 Á. Reyes
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