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Liga MX

Toluca - Pumas UNAM

07/22/2026, 03:05 AM

1 : 2
Expected Goals
Toluca
1.8
Total xG
2.6
Pumas UNAM
0.8
Most Likely Scores

2:0

12%

1:1

12%

2:1

10%

3:0

8%

3:1

6%
What influences the xG?
TOLPU

Toluca

Attack strength (1.55x league average)
+0.53
Defensive strength (1.1 conceded vs 1.3 league avg)
-0.20
3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.8 goals/match)
-0.09
Standings advantage (pos 1 vs 10, 9 places gap)
+0.08
Marcel Ruiz not in squad (3 goals, 4 assists)
Franco Romero on the bench (1 goals, 2 assists)
PĂĄvel PĂ©rez not in squad (0 goals, 2 assists)
Strong home record (2.7 vs 2.1 goals/match)

Pumas UNAM

Attack weakness (0.45x league average)
-1.39
5 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.4 goals/match)
-0.38
Declining form (0.5 vs 1.7 season average)
-0.35
Standings disadvantage (pos 10 vs 1, 9 places gap)
-0.08
JordĂĄn Carrillo not in squad (6 goals, 3 assists)
Adalberto Carrasquilla not in squad (2 goals, 6 assists)
Weak away record (1.1 vs 1.7 goals/match)

League

High-scoring league (3.2 goals/match)
+0.72
+0.72
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Toluca with Alexis Vega: 1.8 goals/game. Without: 0 goals/game (6 of 8 games)

  • 2
    Pumas UNAM: first goal in 5 of 7 games (71%)

  • 3
    Pumas UNAM with Tony Leone: 1.8 goals/game. Without: 0.3 goals/game (5 of 8 games)

  • 4
    Pumas UNAM: 69% of xG value comes in the first half (last 8 games with xG data)

  • 5
    Toluca: 68% of xG value comes in the second half (last 8 games with xG data)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

61%

Draw

25%

Away Win

14%

Goals

Over 1.5

75%

Under 1.5

25%

Over 2.5

48%

Under 2.5

52%

Over 3.5

27%

Under 3.5

73%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

86%

Away or Draw

39%

No Draw

75%

Both Score

Yes

47%

No

53%

Key Factors
  • Strong home record: Toluca concede an average of just 0.85 goals per game at home
  • Tactical dominance: Toluca averaged 6.2 shots on target in recent matches, compared to Pumas UNAM's low average of 1.4
  • Offensive slump for the visitors: Pumas UNAM's recent goal production has slowed to 0.5 compared to their season average of 1.7
Risk Factors
  • Short recovery time: Toluca had only 3 days of rest since their last match
  • Harmless away attack: Pumas UNAM averaged just 1.4 shots on target in recent matches
  • Key absences: JordĂĄn Carrillo and Adalberto Carrasquilla are unavailable for Pumas UNAM
Overview

Toluca host Pumas UNAM at the Estadio Nemesio DĂ­ez

Liga MX match on July 22, 2026, 5:05 AM

Toluca currently sit in 3rd place with 3 points

The visitors from Pumas UNAM are in 18th place with 0 points

A clash between a strong starter and a team under early pressure

Form

Toluca hold a form of LWLLW with a win in their last match

The home side recorded 2 wins and 3 losses recently

Pumas UNAM travel with a form of LWDLL and a loss in their last match

The visitors registered 1 win, 1 draw, and 3 losses in their recent run

W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

Statistics

Toluca average 1.86 goals scored and 1.02 goals conceded per game this season

At home, the team is stronger defensively with 1.85 scored and 0.85 conceded

Pumas UNAM average 1.63 goals scored and 1.32 goals conceded overall

In away matches, the visitors concede an average of 1.50 goals

Head-to-Head

In 4 head-to-head matches, Toluca won 1 and 3 ended in a draw

Pumas UNAM did not win any of these direct encounters

The last duel ended in a 3-2 victory for Toluca on March 4, 2026

A total of 6 goals were scored by Toluca and 5 by Pumas UNAM in these matches

Key Players

Alexis Vega shines for Toluca with 4 goals and 12 assists, averaging a 7.52 rating

JesĂșs Angulo contributed 7 goals and 5 assists in midfield for the hosts

Pedro Vite acts in midfield for the visitors with 3 goals and a season rating of 6.92

Goalkeepers

Hugo GonzĂĄlez is in goal for Toluca with an average rating of 6.81

Keylor Navas guards the net for Pumas UNAM with a season average rating of 7.04

Toluca have kept 13 clean sheets this season compared to 12 for Pumas UNAM

Influences

Toluca's home advantage is backed by conceding just 0.85 goals per game at Estadio Nemesio DĂ­ez

Matches on this grass pitch average 3.2 total goals

A high rate of 80% of matches at this venue recently saw both teams score

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