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Toluca – Pumas UNAM1 : 2
Why the model thinks so
Toluca
1.84
Total xG
2.61
Pumas UNAM
0.77
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Toluca | Pumas UNAM |
|---|---|---|
| Attack weakness (0.45x league average) | −1.39 | |
| High-scoring league (3.2 goals/match) | +0.72 | +0.72 |
| Attack strength (1.55x league average) | +0.53 | |
| 5 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.4 goals/match) | −0.38 | |
| Declining form (0.5 vs 1.7 season average) | −0.35 | |
| Defensive strength (1.1 conceded vs 1.3 league avg) | −0.20 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.8 goals/match) | −0.09 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 1 vs 10, 9 places gap) | +0.08 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 10 vs 1, 9 places gap) | −0.08 | |
| Marcel Ruiz not in squad (3 goals, 4 assists) | ||
| Franco Romero on the bench (1 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Pável Pérez not in squad (0 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Jordán Carrillo not in squad (6 goals, 3 assists) | ||
| Adalberto Carrasquilla not in squad (2 goals, 6 assists) | ||
| Strong home record (2.7 vs 2.1 goals/match) | ||
| Weak away record (1.1 vs 1.7 goals/match) |
Key factors
- Strong home record: Toluca concede an average of just 0.85 goals per game at home
- Tactical dominance: Toluca averaged 6.2 shots on target in recent matches, compared to Pumas UNAM's low average of 1.4
- Offensive slump for the visitors: Pumas UNAM's recent goal production has slowed to 0.5 compared to their season average of 1.7
Risks
- Short recovery time: Toluca had only 3 days of rest since their last match
- Harmless away attack: Pumas UNAM averaged just 1.4 shots on target in recent matches
- Key absences: Jordán Carrillo and Adalberto Carrasquilla are unavailable for Pumas UNAM
All probabilities
Result
Toluca61%
Draw25%
Pumas UNAM14%
Double chance
Toluca or draw86%
Pumas UNAM or draw39%
No draw75%
Goals
Over 1.575%
Under 1.525%
Over 2.548%
Under 2.552%
Over 3.527%
Under 3.573%
Both teams score
Yes47%
No53%
Most likely scores
2:0
12%
1:1
12%
2:1
10%
3:0
8%
3:1
6%
1:2
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Toluca with Alexis Vega: 1.8 goals/game. Without: 0 goals/game (6 of 8 games)
- Pumas UNAM: first goal in 5 of 7 games (71%)
- Pumas UNAM with Tony Leone: 1.8 goals/game. Without: 0.3 goals/game (5 of 8 games)
- Pumas UNAM: 69% of xG value comes in the first half (last 8 games with xG data)
- Toluca: 68% of xG value comes in the second half (last 8 games with xG data)
Lineups
Toluca 4-2-3-1 · Pumas UNAM 4-3-3
Toluca
- 1 H. González Durán
- 2 D. Barbosa Zaragoza
- 4 B. Méndez Cittadini
- 13 L. Garcia Teixeira
- 17 B. García Carpizo
- 7 V. Guzmán Guzmán
- 24 F. Arce Juárez
- 11 H. Nunes de Castro
- 10 J. Angulo Uriarte
- 9 E. Vega Rojas
- 29 J. Díaz Price
Pumas UNAM
- 1 K. Navas Gamboa
- 2 P. Bennevendo Peña
- 6 N. da Silva
- 5 R. Duarte Sánchez
- 77 Á. Angulo Mosquera
- 7 R. López Quiñones
- 45 P. Vite Uca
- 18 V. Arteaga Camarena
- 21 C. Antuna Romero
- 23 O. Vieira dos Santos Júnior
- 31 R. Morales
Substitutes
- 25 E. López
- 20 J. Gallardo Vasconcelos
- 5 F. Romero
- 6 A. Pereira Castelnoble
- 8 N. Castro
- 22 L. García Palomera
- 35 É. Gutiérrez Galaviz
- 3 A. Briseño Vázquez
- 19 S. Simón
- 191 C. Madrigales
- 9 G. Martínez Ayala
- 17 F. Córdova Reyes
- 24 A. Leone Larios
- 12 C. Calderón Del Real
- 20 S. Trigos Nava
- 34 ?. Azuaje García
- 22 A. Medina Camacho
- 35 P. Lara Nevarez
- 203 S. García Arriola
- 199 K. Carranza Anguiano
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