🇲🇽

Liga MX

Cruz Azul - Puebla

07/22/2026, 01:00 AM

2 : 1
Expected Goals
Cruz Azul
1.8
Total xG
2.5
Puebla
0.7
Most Likely Scores

2:0

13%

1:1

11%

2:1

9%

3:0

8%

3:1

6%
What influences the xG?
CAPUE

Cruz Azul

Defensive strength (1.2 conceded vs 1.3 league avg)
-0.14
Standings advantage (pos 3 vs 18, 15 places gap)
+0.13
4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.8 goals/match)
-0.04
Agustín Palavecino on the bench (6 goals, 3 assists)
Osinachi Ebere on the bench (4 goals, 1 assists)
Omar Campos on the bench (2 goals, 2 assists)
Willer Ditta on the bench (0 goals, 2 assists)

Puebla

Attack weakness (0.42x league average)
-1.47
Defensive weakness (2.2 conceded vs 1.9 league avg)
+0.30
5 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.6 goals/match)
-0.16
Declining form (0.6 vs 1.1 season average)
-0.16
Standings disadvantage (pos 18 vs 3, 15 places gap)
-0.12
15% of goal output missing (only 92% available)
Weak away record (0.9 vs 1.1 goals/match)

League

High-scoring league (3.2 goals/match)
+0.72
+0.72
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Puebla: 6 of 8 games without conceding in H1, but only 2 over 90 minutes

  • 2
    Cruz Azul: 73% of xG value comes in the second half (last 8 games with xG data)

  • 3
    Puebla with Kevin Velasco: 0.5 goals/game. Without: 1 goals/game (6 of 8 games)

  • 4
    Cruz Azul: 5 of 8 games without conceding in H1, but only 2 over 90 minutes

  • 5
    Cruz Azul: scored only after the break in 3 of 8 games

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

63%

Draw

24%

Away Win

12%

Goals

Over 1.5

73%

Under 1.5

27%

Over 2.5

47%

Under 2.5

53%

Over 3.5

25%

Under 3.5

75%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

88%

Away or Draw

37%

No Draw

76%

Both Score

Yes

43%

No

57%

Key Factors
  • Attacking threat meets weak defense: Cruz Azul recently averaged 6.4 shots on target per match, while Puebla concedes an average of 2.57 goals per away game
  • Form trend: Cruz Azul remains unbeaten in 5 matches (DWDWW) while Puebla suffered four consecutive defeats prior to their last win
  • Strong favorite: The mathematical prediction model assigns a 63% probability of a home victory for Cruz Azul
Risk Factors
  • Key absences for Cruz Azul: Agustín Palavecino, Osinachi Ebere, Omar Campos, and Willer Ditta are not in the lineup
  • Away defensive struggles: Puebla concedes a high average of 2.57 goals per game on the road
  • Offensive limitations: Puebla recently averaged only 2.2 shots on target per match
Overview

Cruz Azul (5th place, 3 points) host Puebla (8th place, 3 points)

Liga MX match on July 22, 2026, 3:00 AM at Estadio La Corregidora

Both teams seek to continue their successful start to the campaign

Form

Cruz Azul shows steady form with a sequence of DWDWW

The home side secured 3 wins and 2 draws in their last 5 matches

Puebla has an unstable form of LLLLW

The visitors collected 1 win and 4 losses

W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

Statistics

Cruz Azul scores 1.77 goals and concedes 1.09 goals on average this season

At home, Cruz Azul averages 1.75 goals scored and 0.92 goals conceded

Puebla averages 1.00 goals scored and 2.00 goals conceded per match

Puebla concedes a high average of 2.57 goals per away game

Head-to-Head

There have been 4 direct encounters in total

Cruz Azul remains undefeated with 3 wins and 1 draw

The cumulative score stands at 7:2 in favor of Cruz Azul

The last match on January 18, 2026, ended in a 1:0 victory for Cruz Azul

Key Players

Gabriel Fernández scored 14 goals and provided 7 assists in 36 matches

José Paradela added 10 goals and 10 assists in 44 appearances

Carlos Rodríguez recorded 8 goals and 6 assists in 44 matches

Emiliano Gómez has 8 goals and 5 assists in 33 seasonal games

Kevin Velasco provided 3 assists in 14 appearances

Juan Pablo Vargas scored 1 goal in 14 matches as a defender

Goalkeepers

Kevin Mier kept 12 clean sheets this season with 8 clean sheets at home

Daniel Gutiérrez recorded 6 clean sheets so far with 3 clean sheets away

Influences

The match takes place on grass at Estadio La Corregidora

Historical games at this venue average 2.0 goals per game

Both teams scored in 3 out of 5 matches played here

Ready to Get Started?

Create an account and discover data-driven football analyses. Cancel anytime.