Match report →
Cruz Azul – Puebla2 : 1
Why the model thinks so
Cruz Azul
1.84
Total xG
2.54
Puebla
0.69
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Cruz Azul | Puebla |
|---|---|---|
| Attack weakness (0.42x league average) | −1.47 | |
| High-scoring league (3.2 goals/match) | +0.72 | +0.72 |
| Defensive weakness (2.2 conceded vs 1.9 league avg) | +0.30 | |
| 5 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.6 goals/match) | −0.16 | |
| Declining form (0.6 vs 1.1 season average) | −0.16 | |
| Defensive strength (1.2 conceded vs 1.3 league avg) | −0.14 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 3 vs 18, 15 places gap) | +0.13 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 18 vs 3, 15 places gap) | −0.12 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.8 goals/match) | −0.04 | |
| Agustín Palavecino on the bench (6 goals, 3 assists) | ||
| Osinachi Ebere on the bench (4 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Omar Campos on the bench (2 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Willer Ditta on the bench (0 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| 15% of goal output missing (only 92% available) | ||
| Weak away record (0.9 vs 1.1 goals/match) |
Key factors
- Attacking threat meets weak defense: Cruz Azul recently averaged 6.4 shots on target per match, while Puebla concedes an average of 2.57 goals per away game
- Form trend: Cruz Azul remains unbeaten in 5 matches (DWDWW) while Puebla suffered four consecutive defeats prior to their last win
- Strong favorite: The mathematical prediction model assigns a 63% probability of a home victory for Cruz Azul
Risks
- Key absences for Cruz Azul: Agustín Palavecino, Osinachi Ebere, Omar Campos, and Willer Ditta are not in the lineup
- Away defensive struggles: Puebla concedes a high average of 2.57 goals per game on the road
- Offensive limitations: Puebla recently averaged only 2.2 shots on target per match
All probabilities
Result
Cruz Azul63%
Draw24%
Puebla12%
Double chance
Cruz Azul or draw88%
Puebla or draw37%
No draw76%
Goals
Over 1.573%
Under 1.527%
Over 2.547%
Under 2.553%
Over 3.525%
Under 3.575%
Both teams score
Yes43%
No57%
Most likely scores
2:0
13%
1:1
11%
2:1
9%
3:0
8%
3:1
6%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Puebla: 6 of 8 games without conceding in H1, but only 2 over 90 minutes
- Cruz Azul: 73% of xG value comes in the second half (last 8 games with xG data)
- Puebla with Kevin Velasco: 0.5 goals/game. Without: 1 goals/game (6 of 8 games)
- Cruz Azul: 5 of 8 games without conceding in H1, but only 2 over 90 minutes
- Cruz Azul: scored only after the break in 3 of 8 games
Lineups
Cruz Azul 4-2-2-2 · Puebla 4-3-3
Cruz Azul
- 23 K. Mier Robles
- 16 Á. Márquez Castañeda
- 33 G. Piovi
- 5 J. Orozco Chiquete
- 29 C. Rotondi
- 6 É. Lira Méndez
- 19 C. Rodríguez Gómez
- 20 J. Paradela
- 18 L. Romero
- 7 N. Ibáñez
- 21 G. Fernández Leites
Puebla
- 28 R. Gutiérrez Hernández
- 2 ?. Leyva
- 5 F. Almada
- 4 J. Vargas Campos
- 7 F. Monarrez Ochoa
- 26 K. Velasco Bonilla
- 21 S. Sanabria Ortega
- 3 A. Herrera Rodríguez
- 11 E. Gómez Dutra
- 24 A. Organista Orozco
- 9 L. Hernández Quintero
Substitutes
- 4 W. Ditta Pérez
- 1 A. Gudiño Portillo
- 3 O. Campos Chagoya
- 8 A. Palavecino Lamela
- 12 A. Montes Castro
- 17 A. García Moreno
- 22 J. Rodarte Barragán
- 10 A. Montaño
- 11 O. Ebere
- 14 J. Calero Sierra
- 10 M. Tomás Borges
- 16 A. Ramírez Jiménez
- 33 J. Rodríguez Trujillo
- 15 O. Villa Domínguez
- 22 C. Baltazar Agraz
- 8 O. Moreno Villegas
- 17 R. Castillo González
- 13 E. Navarro
- 27 B. Garnica Cortéz
- 29 E. Mustre Torres
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