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Liga MX

Guadalajara - Juárez

07/25/2026, 11:07 PM

1 : 0
Expected Goals
Guadalajara
1.7
Total xG
2.5
Juárez
0.7
Most Likely Scores

1:0

13%

2:0

13%

1:1

12%

0:0

10%

2:1

9%
What influences the xG?
GUAJUÁ

Guadalajara

3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match)
-0.21
Declining form (1.2 vs 1.9 season average)
-0.21
Defensive strength (1.4 conceded vs 1.3 league avg)
+0.07
Efraín Álvarez on the bench (3 goals, 8 assists)
Santiago Sandoval not in squad (6 goals, 1 assists)
Ángel Sepúlveda not in squad (4 goals, 1 assists)
Ricardo Marín on the bench (3 goals, 2 assists)
Omar Nicolás Govea García on the bench (2 goals, 1 assists)
Diego Campillo on the bench (1 goals, 2 assists)

Juárez

Attack weakness (0.49x league average)
-1.20
Defensive weakness (1.8 conceded vs 1.6 league avg)
+0.14
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match)
-0.09
Jairo Torres on the bench (4 goals, 2 assists)
Weak away record (1 vs 1.5 goals/match)

League

High-scoring league (2.9 goals/match)
+0.43
+0.43
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Guadalajara with Yael Padilla: 1.8 goals/game. Without: 0 goals/game (6 of 8 games)

  • 2
    Juárez: scored only in H2 in 4 consecutive games (4 of 8 total)

  • 3
    Guadalajara: first goal in 4 of 6 games (67%)

  • 4
    Juárez: 4 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

60%

Draw

26%

Away Win

14%

Goals

Over 1.5

72%

Under 1.5

28%

Over 2.5

45%

Under 2.5

55%

Over 3.5

24%

Under 3.5

76%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

86%

Away or Draw

40%

No Draw

74%

Both Score

Yes

44%

No

56%

Key Factors
  • Artificial turf advantage: Guadalajara holds an excellent record of 7 wins and only 1 loss on this surface
  • Tactical advantage: Guadalajara averaged 4.4 shots on target in recent matches, compared to Juárez's 2.8
  • Defensive mismatch: Guadalajara concedes only 0.79 goals per home match, while Juárez concedes an average of 2.25 goals away
Risk Factors
  • Negative scoring trend: Both teams show a declining form trend, averaging only 1.2 goals per game recently
  • Squad absence: The suspension of Á. Sepúlveda Sánchez (4 goals this season) limits Guadalajara's attacking depth
Overview

Guadalajara host Juárez at Estadio AKRON

Liga MX match on July 25, 2026, 11:07 PM

Both teams started the season with a defeat

Guadalajara enter the match as favorites with a 60% win probability

Form

Guadalajara show a form of LWDLL

The hosts suffered two consecutive defeats recently

Juárez travel with a form of LLLWL

Both teams have managed only one win in their last five matches

Form code: W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

Statistics

Guadalajara scored an average of 1.75 goals and conceded 1.23 goals per match this season

At home, the host defense is very solid, conceding only 0.79 goals per game

Juárez concede an average of 2.25 goals in away matches

The visitors score an average of 1.50 goals on the road

Head-to-Head

In 4 head-to-head matches, Guadalajara won 2 times while Juárez won once

The goal difference is 8 to 3 in favor of the hosts

The last meeting on January 14, 2026, ended in a 1-0 away win for Guadalajara

Key Players

Armando González is the top scorer for the hosts with 24 goals in 35 appearances

Roberto Alvarado contributed 4 goals and 5 assists in 31 games

For Juárez, Óscar Estupiñán is the main threat with 15 goals in 32 matches

Not selected: Efraín Álvarez (3G/8A), Santiago Sandoval (6G/1A), Ángel Sepúlveda (4G/1A), Ricardo Marín (3G/2A), Omar Nicolás Govea García (2G/1A), Diego Campillo (1G/2A)

Not selected for visitors: Jairo Torres (4G/2A)

Goalkeepers

Raúl Rangel kept 14 clean sheets in 34 appearances this season

Sebastián Jurado in the Juárez goal recorded 3 clean sheets in 38 games

Influences

The match will be played on artificial turf

Guadalajara have an excellent home record of 7 wins and only 1 loss on this surface

Juárez have 1 win, 1 draw, and 1 loss on artificial turf so far

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