Match report →
Guadalajara – Juárez1 : 0
Why the model thinks so
Guadalajara
1.73
Total xG
2.47
Juárez
0.74
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Guadalajara | Juárez |
|---|---|---|
| Attack weakness (0.49x league average) | −1.20 | |
| High-scoring league (2.9 goals/match) | +0.43 | +0.43 |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match) | −0.21 | |
| Declining form (1.2 vs 1.9 season average) | −0.21 | |
| Defensive weakness (1.8 conceded vs 1.6 league avg) | +0.14 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match) | −0.09 | |
| Defensive strength (1.4 conceded vs 1.3 league avg) | +0.07 | |
| Efraín Álvarez on the bench (3 goals, 8 assists) | ||
| Santiago Sandoval not in squad (6 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Ángel Sepúlveda not in squad (4 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Ricardo Marín on the bench (3 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Omar Nicolás Govea García on the bench (2 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Diego Campillo on the bench (1 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Jairo Torres on the bench (4 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Weak away record (1 vs 1.5 goals/match) |
Key factors
- Artificial turf advantage: Guadalajara holds an excellent record of 7 wins and only 1 loss on this surface
- Tactical advantage: Guadalajara averaged 4.4 shots on target in recent matches, compared to Juárez's 2.8
- Defensive mismatch: Guadalajara concedes only 0.79 goals per home match, while Juárez concedes an average of 2.25 goals away
Risks
- Negative scoring trend: Both teams show a declining form trend, averaging only 1.2 goals per game recently
- Squad absence: The suspension of Á. Sepúlveda Sánchez (4 goals this season) limits Guadalajara's attacking depth
All probabilities
Result
Guadalajara60%
Draw26%
Juárez14%
Double chance
Guadalajara or draw86%
Juárez or draw40%
No draw74%
Goals
Over 1.572%
Under 1.528%
Over 2.545%
Under 2.555%
Over 3.524%
Under 3.576%
Both teams score
Yes44%
No56%
Most likely scores
1:0
13%
2:0
13%
1:1
12%
0:0
10%
2:1
9%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Guadalajara with Yael Padilla: 1.8 goals/game. Without: 0 goals/game (6 of 8 games)
- Juárez: scored only in H2 in 4 consecutive games (4 of 8 total)
- Guadalajara: first goal in 4 of 6 games (67%)
- Juárez: 4 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)
Lineups
Guadalajara 3-1-4-2 · Juárez 5-4-1
Guadalajara
- 1 J. Rangel Aguilar
- 23 D. Aguirre
- 7 L. Romo Barrón
- 2 J. Castillo Pérez
- 28 F. González Pineda
- 37 R. Ledezma
- 11 B. Gutierrez
- 33 J. Carrillo Rodríguez
- 5 B. González
- 25 R. Alvarado Hernández
- 34 A. González Alba
Juárez
- 1 S. Jurado Roca
- 20 J. Aquino Carmona
- 2 G. Sepúlveda López
- 3 J. Murillo Largacha
- 23 Ó. Ortega Gatica
- 4 M. Mayorga Almaráz
- 21 R. Oliveira António
- 5 D. García Bojórquez
- 8 G. Castilho Carvalho
- 11 J. Rodríguez Francis
- 19 O. Estupiñán Vallesilla
Substitutes
- 10 E. Álvarez
- 3 D. Campillo del Campo
- 19 K. Castañeda Vargas
- 16 L. Rey Mejía
- 17 R. Marín Sánchez
- 13 Ó. Whalley Guardado
- 24 M. Gómez Ortiz
- 56 A. Chavez
- 18 J. Perez
- 67 S. Aguayo Castillo
- 6 Monchu
- 33 F. Nevarez Pulgarin
- 198 R. Mendoza
- 29 E. Ayon
- 7 R. Fulgencio Román
- 10 Í. Torres Ramírez
- 25 S. Godínez
- 17 L. Martínez Dupuy
- 27 G. Ruiz
- 201 J. Carmona Núñez
Ready to Get Started?
Create an account and discover data-driven football analyses. Cancel anytime.
Create Account →