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Pachuca – Querétaro1 : 2
Why the model thinks so
Pachuca
1.13
Total xG
1.84
Querétaro
0.71
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Pachuca | Querétaro |
|---|---|---|
| Attack weakness (0.49x league average) | −1.11 | |
| 4 clean sheets in last 5 matches | −0.15 | |
| Defensive strength (1.1 conceded vs 1.2 league avg) | −0.12 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.4 goals/match) | +0.08 | |
| Rising form (1.4 vs 1.1 season average) | +0.08 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.4 goals/match) | −0.02 | |
| Víctor Alfonso Guzmán Guzmán not in squad (5 goals, 8 assists) | ||
| Enner Valencia not in squad (8 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Brian García not in squad (1 goals, 4 assists) | ||
| 25% of goal output missing (only 66% available) | ||
| Weak away record (0.7 vs 1.1 goals/match) | ||
| Full strength squad available |
Key factors
- Pachuca averaged 4.4 shots on target in recent matches with a counter-oriented style
- Querétaro averaged 1.4 goals in recent matches, hitting the net more frequently than their season average of 1.1
- The mathematical analysis favors Pachuca with a 44% probability of a home win
Risks
- Pachuca is missing Víctor Alfonso Guzmán Guzmán, Enner Valencia, and Brian García, leaving only 67% of their usual goal threat available
- Querétaro concedes an average of 2.5 goals in away matches
All probabilities
Result
Pachuca44%
Draw35%
Querétaro21%
Double chance
Pachuca or draw79%
Querétaro or draw56%
No draw65%
Goals
Over 1.557%
Under 1.543%
Over 2.528%
Under 2.572%
Over 3.512%
Under 3.588%
Both teams score
Yes36%
No64%
Most likely scores
0:0
18%
1:0
16%
1:1
14%
2:0
10%
0:1
10%
1:2
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Querétaro with Jean Unjanque: 1.3 goals/game. Without: 0.5 goals/game (6 of 8 games)
- Querétaro: 5 of 8 games without conceding in H1, but only 2 over 90 minutes
- Querétaro: scored only after the break in 3 of 8 games
- Pachuca with Brian García: 1.2 goals/game. Without: 2 goals/game (6 of 8 games)
Lineups
Pachuca 4-2-3-1 · Querétaro 4-2-3-1
Pachuca
- 25 C. Moreno
- 22 A. Mozo Rodríguez
- 4 E. dos Santos Bauermann
- 2 S. Barreto
- 15 F. Venegas Moreno
- 16 C. Rivera Cuéllar
- 10 E. Montiel
- 29 R. Nunes do Nascimento
- 7 R. Pizarro Thomas
- 11 O. Idrissi
- 23 J. Rondón Giménez
Querétaro
- 25 G. Allison Revuelta
- 24 B. Duarte
- 13 D. Reyes Rosales
- 2 L. Abascia
- 27 D. Parra Durán
- 4 C. García Prades
- 5 S. Homenchenko Bianchi
- 16 E. Giménez Rojas
- 11 M. Coronel
- 12 P. de Almeida Barbosa
- 9 A. Ávila Vega
Substitutes
- 9 A. Alcaraz Torales
- 13 J. Berlanga
- 14 C. Sánchez Nava
- 8 A. Domínguez Figueroa
- 26 A. Bautista Gutiérrez
- 31 J. Eulogio Téllez
- 6 M. Isaís
- 30 S. Rodriguez
- 21 J. Vallejo
- 187 G. Álvarez Montiel
- 1 J. Hernández García
- 28 J. Arellano Camacho
- 15 C. Villanueva López
- 22 J. Unjanque
- 29 W. Madrid
- 26 E. Pérez Reyes
- 35 J. Torres
- 20 A. Alcalá Solorio
- 18 ?. Dueñas
- 30 J. Martínez Jr.
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