Match report →
Atlante – América1 : 1
Why the model thinks so
Atlante
1.42
Total xG
2.99
América
1.58
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Atlante | América |
|---|---|---|
| High-scoring league (3.2 goals/match) | +0.68 | +0.68 |
| Defensive strength (1.2 conceded vs 1.8 league avg) | −0.63 | |
| Small sample (0 matches), regression to mean | +0.36 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2 goals/match) | +0.10 | |
| Brian Rodríguez on the bench (13 goals, 7 assists) | ||
| Álex Zendejas not in squad (12 goals, 7 assists) | ||
| 56% of goal output missing (only 47% available) | ||
| Weak away record (1.2 vs 1.7 goals/match) | ||
| Full strength squad available |
Key factors
- Only 47% of attacking threat available for América, as Brian Rodríguez and Álex Zendejas are missing
- América averaged 5.0 shots on target in recent matches
- América are currently scoring more frequently with 2.0 goals per game compared to their season average of 1.7
Risks
- Atlante averaged only 3.0 shots on target in their last match
- Limited data availability regarding player form for Atlante and historical head-to-head matches
All probabilities
Result
Atlante33%
Draw27%
América40%
Double chance
Atlante or draw60%
América or draw67%
No draw73%
Goals
Over 1.581%
Under 1.519%
Over 2.558%
Under 2.542%
Over 3.535%
Under 3.565%
Both teams score
Yes62%
No38%
Most likely scores
1:1
13%
1:2
9%
2:1
8%
2:2
6%
0:2
6%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- América with Jonathan dos Santos: 2.2 goals/game. Without: 0.5 goals/game (6 of 8 games)
Lineups
Atlante 5-3-2 · América 4-2-3-1
Atlante
- 1 Ó. Jiménez Fabela
- 29 W. Portales
- 6 N. Carrera
- 4 E. Tercero Méndez
- 3 L. Sánchez Saucedo
- 37 W. Clar Fritz
- 8 E. Pizzuto Puga
- 25 M. Fernández Figueira
- 19 L. Calzadilla Santillán
- 9 L. Puente Prado
- 7 J. Julio Palacios
América
- 30 R. Cota Robles
- 34 D. Espinoza Acosta
- 29 R. Del Castillo
- 32 M. Vázquez García
- 5 K. Álvarez Campos
- 28 E. Sánchez Ocegueda
- 12 I. Violante Romero
- 23 R. Cavalcante Veiga
- 26 C. Borja González
- 9 H. Martín Mex
Substitutes
- 15 J. Charcopa Cabezas
- 16 J. González
- 17 L. Mejía Soto
- 21 J. Ibarra De La Rosa
- 23 A. Padilla Román
- 27 A. Escobar Díaz
- 22 R. Barragán Casillas
- 34 E. Jiménez Sánchez
- 184 Rubén Alejandro Coubert Pelayo
- 3 I. Reyes Romero
- 20 A. Gutiérrez Torres
- 2 E. Lara Contreras
- 4 S. Cáceres Ramos
- 7 P. Rodríguez Bravo
- 33 P. Salas
- 24 F. Rossano Erchuk
- 21 F. Tapia Méndez
- 186 D. Arriaga García
- 191 A. Fernández
- 191 A. Fernández de Lara Jiménez
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