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Liga MX

Atlante - América

07/25/2026, 03:00 AM

1 : 1
Expected Goals
Atlante
1.4
Total xG
3.0
América
1.6
Most Likely Scores

1:1

13%

1:2

9%

2:1

8%

2:2

6%

0:2

6%
What influences the xG?
ATLAMÉ

Atlante

Small sample (0 matches) - regression to mean
+0.36
Full strength squad available

América

Defensive strength (1.2 conceded vs 1.8 league avg)
-0.63
3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2 goals/match)
+0.10
Brian Rodríguez on the bench (13 goals, 7 assists)
Álex Zendejas not in squad (12 goals, 7 assists)
56% of goal output missing (only 47% available)
Weak away record (1.2 vs 1.7 goals/match)

League

High-scoring league (3.2 goals/match)
+0.68
+0.68
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    América with Jonathan dos Santos: 2.2 goals/game. Without: 0.5 goals/game (6 of 8 games)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

33%

Draw

27%

Away Win

40%

Goals

Over 1.5

81%

Under 1.5

19%

Over 2.5

58%

Under 2.5

42%

Over 3.5

35%

Under 3.5

65%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

60%

Away or Draw

67%

No Draw

73%

Both Score

Yes

62%

No

38%

Key Factors
  • Only 47% of attacking threat available for América, as Brian Rodríguez and Álex Zendejas are missing
  • América averaged 5.0 shots on target in recent matches
  • América are currently scoring more frequently with 2.0 goals per game compared to their season average of 1.7
Risk Factors
  • Atlante averaged only 3.0 shots on target in their last match
  • Limited data availability regarding player form for Atlante and historical head-to-head matches
Overview

Atlante (14th place, 0 points) host América (8th place, 3 points) at Estadio Banorte

Liga MX match on July 25, 2026, 5:00 AM

The mathematical analysis predicts an away win probability of 40%

Form

Atlante recorded a loss in their last match

Form code: L (L = Loss)

América have a record of 2 wins, 2 draws, and 1 loss from their recent matches

Form code: WLDDW (W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)

Statistics

Atlante scored 1.00 goal per game and conceded an average of 2.00 goals

América scored an average of 1.61 goals and conceded 1.16 goals this season

On the road América average 1.65 goals scored per game showing offensive threat

Goalkeepers

Óscar Jiménez is expected to start in goal for Atlante

Rodolfo Cota guards the goal for América with an average rating of 6.77

Influences

The match will be played on natural grass at Estadio Banorte

Stadium statistics show high-scoring matches with an average of 3.2 goals per game

More than 2.5 goals were scored in 3 out of 5 games at this venue

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