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Liga MX

Tijuana - León

07/25/2026, 03:00 AM

1 : 0
Expected Goals
Tijuana
1.5
Total xG
2.4
León
0.9
Most Likely Scores

1:1

14%

1:0

12%

2:0

11%

0:0

11%

2:1

9%
What influences the xG?
TIJLEÓ

Tijuana

Rising form (2.2 vs 1.7 season average)
+0.17
Standings advantage (pos 7 vs 17, 10 places gap)
+0.07
3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.8 goals/match)
+0.04
Defensive strength (1.4 conceded vs 1.4 league avg)
+0.02
Kevin Castañeda not in squad (13 goals, 7 assists)
Diego Abreu on the bench (3 goals, 1 assists)
39% of goal output missing (only 68% available)

León

Attack weakness (0.52x league average)
-1.20
3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.8 goals/match)
+0.20
Rising form (1.8 vs 1.1 season average)
+0.20
Standings disadvantage (pos 17 vs 7, 10 places gap)
-0.10
Díber Cambindo not in squad (8 goals, 2 assists)
Iván Moreno on the bench (1 goals, 5 assists)
Fernando Beltrán on the bench (3 goals, 2 assists)
25% of goal output missing (only 68% available)

League

High-scoring league (3.2 goals/match)
+0.68
+0.68
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Tijuana: first goal in 5 of 7 games (71%)

  • 2
    León: 4 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)

  • 3
    Tijuana with Frank Boya: 2.8 goals/game. Without: 0.5 goals/game (4 of 8 games)

  • 4
    León with Valentín Gauthier: 1.8 goals/game. Without: 1 goals/game (6 of 8 games)

  • 5
    Tijuana: 65% of xG value comes in the first half (last 8 games with xG data)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

52%

Draw

29%

Away Win

20%

Goals

Over 1.5

71%

Under 1.5

29%

Over 2.5

43%

Under 2.5

57%

Over 3.5

22%

Under 3.5

78%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

80%

Away or Draw

48%

No Draw

71%

Both Score

Yes

47%

No

53%

Key Factors
  • Tijuana's advantage on artificial turf with 3 wins and 6 draws compared to León's 2 losses and 0:10 goals
  • Disastrous away defense for León conceding an average of 4.11 goals per match
  • The mathematical model predicts a home win probability of 52%
Risk Factors
  • Only 68% of home goal threat available as Kevin Castañeda and Diego Abreu are missing
  • Only 69% of León's goal threat available as Díber Cambindo, Iván Moreno and Fernando Beltrán are missing
  • Tijuana averaged 5.6 shots on target per match in recent games
Overview

Tijuana host León at the Estadio Caliente

Liga MX match on July 25, 2026, 3:00 AM

Tijuana occupies 3rd place with 3 points

León is currently in 13th place after a defeat

Form

Tijuana is unbeaten in their last 5 matches with a form of WDWDW

The hosts recorded 3 wins and 2 draws recently

León shows a form of WWLLL with 3 consecutive defeats

Statistics

Tijuana averages 1.46 goals scored per game this season

Tijuana has a solid home defense conceding only 0.57 goals on average

León concedes an average of 4.11 goals in away matches

Head-to-Head

Tijuana has a clear advantage with 3 wins from 4 matches

The last meeting ended with a 3:0 victory for Tijuana on March 15, 2026

Tijuana scored 11 goals and conceded 3 in these direct duels

Key Players

Mourad El Ghezouani has already scored 5 goals this season

Ramiro Árciga contributed 3 goals and 8 assists in 36 games

Ismael Díaz is León's top scorer with 10 goals and 6 assists

Goalkeepers

Antonio Rodríguez achieved 13 clean sheets in 37 appearances

Óscar García recorded 6 clean sheets in 28 games for León

Influences

Tijuana is solid on artificial turf with 3 wins and 6 draws

León lost both of their turf matches by a combined score of 0:10

The artificial turf surface remains a key home advantage

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