Match report →
Tijuana – León1 : 0
Why the model thinks so
Tijuana
1.54
Total xG
2.40
León
0.86
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Tijuana | León |
|---|---|---|
| Attack weakness (0.52x league average) | −1.20 | |
| High-scoring league (3.2 goals/match) | +0.68 | +0.68 |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.8 goals/match) | +0.20 | |
| Rising form (1.8 vs 1.1 season average) | +0.20 | |
| Rising form (2.2 vs 1.7 season average) | +0.17 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 17 vs 7, 10 places gap) | −0.10 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 7 vs 17, 10 places gap) | +0.07 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.8 goals/match) | +0.04 | |
| Defensive strength (1.4 conceded vs 1.4 league avg) | +0.02 | |
| Kevin Castañeda not in squad (13 goals, 7 assists) | ||
| Diego Abreu on the bench (3 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| 39% of goal output missing (only 68% available) | ||
| Díber Cambindo not in squad (8 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Iván Moreno on the bench (1 goals, 5 assists) | ||
| Fernando Beltrán on the bench (3 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| 25% of goal output missing (only 68% available) |
Key factors
- Tijuana's advantage on artificial turf with 3 wins and 6 draws compared to León's 2 losses and 0:10 goals
- Disastrous away defense for León conceding an average of 4.11 goals per match
- The mathematical model predicts a home win probability of 52%
Risks
- Only 68% of home goal threat available as Kevin Castañeda and Diego Abreu are missing
- Only 69% of León's goal threat available as Díber Cambindo, Iván Moreno and Fernando Beltrán are missing
- Tijuana averaged 5.6 shots on target per match in recent games
All probabilities
Result
Tijuana52%
Draw29%
León20%
Double chance
Tijuana or draw80%
León or draw48%
No draw71%
Goals
Over 1.571%
Under 1.529%
Over 2.543%
Under 2.557%
Over 3.522%
Under 3.578%
Both teams score
Yes47%
No53%
Most likely scores
1:1
14%
1:0
12%
2:0
11%
0:0
11%
2:1
9%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Tijuana: first goal in 5 of 7 games (71%)
- León: 4 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)
- Tijuana with Frank Boya: 2.8 goals/game. Without: 0.5 goals/game (4 of 8 games)
- León with Valentín Gauthier: 1.8 goals/game. Without: 1 goals/game (6 of 8 games)
- Tijuana: 65% of xG value comes in the first half (last 8 games with xG data)
Lineups
Tijuana 4-1-4-1 · León 4-2-3-1
Tijuana
- 2 J. Rodríguez Romero
- 3 R. Fernández Inzunza
- 12 J. Porozo Vernaza
- 6 J. Gómez Molina
- 33 P. Ortíz
- 8 I. Tona Olmeda
- 17 R. Árciga Zárate
- 20 ?. Zapata Praga
- 31 J. Padilla Sandoval
- 7 A. Preciado Quintero
- 9 M. Daoudi El Ghezouani
León
- 23 O. García
- 4 B. Colula Alarcón
- 14 J. Romaña Espitia
- 3 J. Guevara
- 26 S. Reyes Chávez
- 20 R. Echeverría Sáez
- 29 J. Rodríguez Rebollar
- 16 J. Cortizo de la Piedra
- 13 D. Arcila
- 11 I. Díaz De León
- 19 J. Alvarado Pérez
Substitutes
- 10 G. Mora Zambrano
- 26 A. Perez
- 4 U. Bilbao Arteta
- 16 J. Vega Grijalva
- 18 A. Mejía Montoya
- 29 J. Hernández Soriano
- 34 F. Boya
- 19 D. Abreu Firenze
- 188 A. Magallón
- 197 J. Orduño Uribe
- 5 S. Vegas Orellana
- 18 E. Guerra
- 6 F. Beltrán Cruz
- 7 I. Moreno Füguemann
- 25 P. Bellón Saracho
- 22 S. Santos
- 35 L. Valadez Padilla
- 185 C. Mora Espinoza
- 1 J. García Bonnet
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