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Liga MX

Atlas - Monterrey

08/02/2026, 01:05 AM

0 : 2
Expected Goals
Atlas
1.2
Total xG
2.2
Monterrey
1.1
Most Likely Scores

1:1

15%

0:0

12%

1:0

11%

0:1

9%

2:1

8%
What influences the xG?
ATLMON

Atlas

Standings disadvantage (pos 14 vs 5, 9 places gap)
-0.12
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.4 goals/match)
+0.01
Eduardo Aguirre not in squad (2 goals, 2 assists)
Gustavo Henrique Ferrareis on the bench (0 goals, 3 assists)
Aldo Rocha on the bench (1 goals, 2 assists)
Sergio Hernandez on the bench (0 goals, 2 assists)
Paulo RamĂ­rez on the bench (2 goals, 0 assists)
20% of goal output missing (only 48% available)

Monterrey

Attack weakness (0.56x league average)
-0.79
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.4 goals/match)
-0.08
Standings advantage (pos 5 vs 14, 9 places gap)
+0.04
Defensive weakness (1.6 conceded vs 1.6 league avg)
+0.02
Ricardo ChĂĄvez on the bench (2 goals, 3 assists)
Gerardo Arteaga on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists)
Fidel AmbrĂ­z on the bench (2 goals, 0 assists)
21% of goal output missing (only 84% available)
Weak away record (1.2 vs 1.7 goals/match)
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Monterrey: 5 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)

  • 2
    Atlas: 77% of xG value comes in the second half (last 8 games with xG data)

  • 3
    Atlas: first goal in 4 of 6 games (67%)

  • 4
    Atlas with Mateo GarcĂ­a: 0.4 goals/game. Without: 2 goals/game (5 of 8 games)

  • 5
    Monterrey with Luis Reyes: 1.5 goals/game. Without: 0.5 goals/game (6 of 8 games)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

37%

Draw

32%

Away Win

30%

Goals

Over 1.5

67%

Under 1.5

33%

Over 2.5

39%

Under 2.5

61%

Over 3.5

19%

Under 3.5

81%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

70%

Away or Draw

63%

No Draw

68%

Both Score

Yes

47%

No

53%

Key Factors
  • Squad depletion: Atlas has only 48% of their regular starting goal-threat available due to injuries
  • Tactical edge: Monterrey averaged 5.8 shots on target recently, compared to Atlas' 4.4
  • Head-to-head history: Monterrey is undefeated in the last 4 matches against Atlas
Risk Factors
  • Defensive leaks: Monterrey concedes an average of 2.06 goals per away match
  • Goalkeeper missing: Monterrey's regular option E. Andrada is suspended with a red card
Overview

Atlas (4th place, 6 points) hosts Monterrey (11th place, 3 points) at Estadio Jalisco

Liga MX fixture on August 2, 2026, 3:05 AM

Atlas looks to maintain their perfect start to the season

Form

Atlas form is WLLWW

The home side has won two consecutive matches

Monterrey form is LWLWL

The visitors lost their last match

(W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)

Statistics

Atlas scored an average of 1.17 goals and conceded 1.58 goals per match this season

At home, Atlas averages 1.17 goals scored and 1.09 goals conceded

Monterrey averages 1.61 goals scored and 1.53 goals conceded per game

Away from home, the visitors concede an average of 2.06 goals per game

Head-to-Head

Across 4 head-to-head matches, Atlas has 0 wins, Monterrey 2 wins, with 2 draws

The overall goal difference is 4:10 against Atlas

The last encounter on April 12, 2026, ended in a 0:0 draw

Key Players

Arturo GonzĂĄlez scored 7 goals in 30 season appearances

Manuel Capasso stands out with a 7.19 average rating

Lucas Ocampos recorded 7 goals and 6 assists for the visitors

Goalkeepers

Camilo Vargas kept 10 clean sheets for Atlas this season

Luis CĂĄrdenas averages a 6.99 rating in goal for the visitors

Influences

The match takes place on natural grass at Estadio Jalisco

Historical venue average sits at 1.6 goals per game

Atlas concedes fewer goals at home (1.09) than away (2.46) on average

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