Match report →
Atlas – Monterrey0 : 2
Why the model thinks so
Atlas
1.19
Total xG
2.24
Monterrey
1.05
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Atlas | Monterrey |
|---|---|---|
| Attack weakness (0.56x league average) | −0.79 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 14 vs 5, 9 places gap) | −0.12 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.4 goals/match) | −0.08 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 5 vs 14, 9 places gap) | +0.04 | |
| Defensive weakness (1.6 conceded vs 1.6 league avg) | +0.02 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.4 goals/match) | +0.01 | |
| Eduardo Aguirre not in squad (2 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Gustavo Henrique Ferrareis on the bench (0 goals, 3 assists) | ||
| Aldo Rocha on the bench (1 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Sergio Hernandez on the bench (0 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Paulo Ramírez on the bench (2 goals, 0 assists) | ||
| 20% of goal output missing (only 48% available) | ||
| Ricardo Chávez on the bench (2 goals, 3 assists) | ||
| Gerardo Arteaga on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Fidel Ambríz on the bench (2 goals, 0 assists) | ||
| 21% of goal output missing (only 84% available) | ||
| Weak away record (1.2 vs 1.7 goals/match) |
Key factors
- Squad depletion: Atlas has only 48% of their regular starting goal-threat available due to injuries
- Tactical edge: Monterrey averaged 5.8 shots on target recently, compared to Atlas' 4.4
- Head-to-head history: Monterrey is undefeated in the last 4 matches against Atlas
Risks
- Defensive leaks: Monterrey concedes an average of 2.06 goals per away match
- Goalkeeper missing: Monterrey's regular option E. Andrada is suspended with a red card
All probabilities
Result
Atlas37%
Draw32%
Monterrey30%
Double chance
Atlas or draw70%
Monterrey or draw63%
No draw68%
Goals
Over 1.567%
Under 1.533%
Over 2.539%
Under 2.561%
Over 3.519%
Under 3.581%
Both teams score
Yes47%
No53%
Most likely scores
1:1
15%
0:0
12%
1:0
11%
0:1
9%
2:1
8%
0:2
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Monterrey: 5 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)
- Atlas: 77% of xG value comes in the second half (last 8 games with xG data)
- Atlas: first goal in 4 of 6 games (67%)
- Atlas with Mateo García: 0.4 goals/game. Without: 2 goals/game (5 of 8 games)
- Monterrey with Luis Reyes: 1.5 goals/game. Without: 0.5 goals/game (6 of 8 games)
Lineups
Atlas 4-2-2-2 · Monterrey 3-4-2-1
Atlas
- 12 C. Vargas Gil
- 3 J. Sánchez Ramos
- 28 M. Capasso
- 21 R. Schlegel
- 16 M. Valenzuela
- 6 E. Zaldivar Valverde
- 27 V. Hugo Ríos de Alba
- 58 A. González González
- 10 L. Leite Esteves
- 11 L. Lopes
- 8 R. Mmaee Nwambeben Kabir
Monterrey
- 22 L. Cárdenas López
- 4 V. Guzmán Olmedo
- 13 C. Salcedo Hernández
- 19 D. Aceves Patiño
- 10 L. Orellano
- 25 O. Pineda Alvarado
- 8 Ó. Torres Muñoz
- 17 J. Corona Ruíz
- 7 L. Ocampos
- 9 D. Rossi Marachlian
- 99 H. Cuypers
Substitutes
- 44 J. Sánchez Purata
- 2 G. Ferrareis
- 13 G. Aguirre Ledesma
- 17 J. Lozano Silva
- 22 A. Sánchez Montes De Oca
- 23 S. Hernández Flores
- 203 José Martín
- 15 P. Ramírez Barboza
- 208 J. Ávila
- 197 D. Román Espinosa
- 11 I. Fimbres Ochoa
- 5 F. Ambríz
- 31 C. Ramos Becerra
- 32 U. Đurđević
- 2 R. Chávez Soto
- 3 G. Arteaga Zamora
- 21 L. Reyes Moreno
- 27 R. De La Rosa González
- 30 J. Rodriguez
- 18 C. Garza Cantu
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