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Atlético San Luis – Tijuana0 : 0
Why the model thinks so
Atlético San Luis
1.30
Total xG
2.50
Tijuana
1.21
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Atlético San Luis | Tijuana |
|---|---|---|
| Attack weakness (0.78x league average) | −0.46 | |
| Attack weakness (0.76x league average) | +0.21 | |
| Defensive weakness (1.3 conceded vs 1.5 league avg) | −0.16 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 15 vs 7, 8 places gap) | −0.11 | |
| Rising form (2 vs 1.7 season average) | +0.10 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 7 vs 15, 8 places gap) | +0.05 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.4 goals/match) | −0.02 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.6 goals/match) | −0.02 | |
| João Pedro not in squad (26 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| 55% of goal output missing (only 65% available) | ||
| Kevin Castañeda not in squad (13 goals, 7 assists) | ||
| Weak away record (1.1 vs 1.7 goals/match) |
Key factors
- Form discrepancy: Tijuana is unbeaten in 5 matches while San Luis won only one of their last 5 games
- Visitors' attacking strength: Tijuana is currently scoring more frequently (2.0 goals) than their season average (1.7 goals)
- Tactical advantage: Tijuana averaged 5.0 shots on target in recent matches with a counter-oriented style
Risks
- João Pedro is missing, only 65% of the goal threat available
- Visitors' away defensive weakness: Tijuana concedes a high average of 2.36 goals per away game
- Balanced probabilities: The model calculates a tight distribution with 37% for a home win and 33% for an away win
All probabilities
Result
Atlético San Luis37%
Draw30%
Tijuana33%
Double chance
Atlético San Luis or draw67%
Tijuana or draw63%
No draw70%
Goals
Over 1.573%
Under 1.527%
Over 2.546%
Under 2.554%
Over 3.524%
Under 3.576%
Both teams score
Yes53%
No47%
Most likely scores
1:1
14%
2:1
8%
1:2
8%
2:0
7%
0:2
6%
0:0
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Tijuana with Pablo Ortiz: 1.8 goals/game. Without: 0 goals/game (6 of 8 games)
- Tijuana: first goal in 5 of 7 games (71%)
- Atlético San Luis with Anderson Duarte: 1.7 goals/game. Without: 0.5 goals/game (6 of 8 games)
- Atlético San Luis: scored only after the break in 4 of 8 games
- Atlético San Luis: 72% of xG value comes in the second half (last 7 games with xG data)
Lineups
Atlético San Luis 3-1-4-2 · Tijuana 4-1-4-1
Atlético San Luis
- 1 A. Sánchez Rodríguez
- 3 R. Alves de Barros
- 14 M. Garcia Alvarez
- 31 E. Águila Castro
- 21 Ó. Macías Mora
- 2 R. Torres Acosta
- 11 D. Rodríguez Uribe
- 10 S. Salles Lamonge
- 16 L. Esteves Souza
- 20 L. Flores
- 22 R. Llorente Sanz
Tijuana
- 2 J. Rodríguez Romero
- 3 R. Fernández Inzunza
- 12 J. Porozo Vernaza
- 6 J. Gómez Molina
- 33 P. Ortíz
- 8 I. Tona Olmeda
- 17 R. Árciga Zárate
- 34 F. Boya
- 10 G. Mora Zambrano
- 7 A. Preciado Quintero
- 19 D. Abreu Firenze
Substitutes
- 99 F. Mora Aliaga
- 17 A. Duarte da Silva
- 18 A. Cruz Sánchez
- 8 L. Nájera Reyna
- 26 S. Pérez Bouquet Pérez
- 5 R. Meraz Bernal
- 25 M. Lajud Bojalil
- 30 B. Galindo Cruz
- 19 S. Muñóz Robles
- 13 J. Caicedo Caicedo
- 9 M. Daoudi El Ghezouani
- 15 J. Rivero Segade
- 31 J. Padilla Sandoval
- 20 ?. Zapata Praga
- 26 A. Perez
- 16 J. Vega Grijalva
- 18 A. Mejía Montoya
- 29 J. Hernández Soriano
- 202 J. González Cera
- 188 A. Magallón
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