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Liga MX

Atlético San Luis - Tijuana

08/01/2026, 03:00 AM

0 : 0
Expected Goals
Atlético San Luis
1.3
Total xG
2.5
Tijuana
1.2
Most Likely Scores

1:1

14%

2:1

8%

1:2

8%

2:0

7%

0:2

6%
What influences the xG?
ASLTIJ

Atlético San Luis

Attack weakness (0.76x league average)
+0.21
Standings disadvantage (pos 15 vs 7, 8 places gap)
-0.11
3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.4 goals/match)
-0.02
João Pedro not in squad (26 goals, 1 assists)
55% of goal output missing (only 65% available)

Tijuana

Attack weakness (0.78x league average)
-0.46
Defensive weakness (1.3 conceded vs 1.5 league avg)
-0.16
Rising form (2 vs 1.7 season average)
+0.10
Standings advantage (pos 7 vs 15, 8 places gap)
+0.05
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.6 goals/match)
-0.02
Kevin Castañeda not in squad (13 goals, 7 assists)
Weak away record (1.1 vs 1.7 goals/match)
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Tijuana with Pablo Ortiz: 1.8 goals/game. Without: 0 goals/game (6 of 8 games)

  • 2
    Tijuana: first goal in 5 of 7 games (71%)

  • 3
    Atlético San Luis with Anderson Duarte: 1.7 goals/game. Without: 0.5 goals/game (6 of 8 games)

  • 4
    Atlético San Luis: scored only after the break in 4 of 8 games

  • 5
    Atlético San Luis: 72% of xG value comes in the second half (last 7 games with xG data)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

37%

Draw

30%

Away Win

33%

Goals

Over 1.5

73%

Under 1.5

27%

Over 2.5

46%

Under 2.5

54%

Over 3.5

24%

Under 3.5

76%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

67%

Away or Draw

63%

No Draw

70%

Both Score

Yes

53%

No

47%

Key Factors
  • Form discrepancy: Tijuana is unbeaten in 5 matches while San Luis won only one of their last 5 games
  • Visitors' attacking strength: Tijuana is currently scoring more frequently (2.0 goals) than their season average (1.7 goals)
  • Tactical advantage: Tijuana averaged 5.0 shots on target in recent matches with a counter-oriented style
Risk Factors
  • João Pedro is missing, only 65% of the goal threat available
  • Visitors' away defensive weakness: Tijuana concedes a high average of 2.36 goals per away game
  • Balanced probabilities: The model calculates a tight distribution with 37% for a home win and 33% for an away win
Overview

Atlético San Luis hosts Tijuana at the Estadio Alfonso Lastras Ramírez

Liga MX match on August 1, 2026, 5:00 AM

Tijuana arrives as league leaders with 6 points from 2 matches

Atlético San Luis currently sits in 13th place with only 1 point

The home team is under pressure to secure their first win of the season

Form

Atlético San Luis shows a form of LWLLD

The home side recorded 1 win, 1 draw, and 3 losses in their last 5 matches

Tijuana is in great shape with a form of DWDWW

The visitors are unbeaten in 5 matches with 3 wins and 2 draws

W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

Statistics

Atlético San Luis scored an average of 1.44 goals while conceding 1.65 goals per match this season

Their home record shows an average of 1.44 goals scored and 1.62 goals conceded

Tijuana conceded an average of 2.36 goals per away match this season

The visitors score an average of 1.5 goals in away matches

The BTTS rate at San Luis's stadium is 60%

Head-to-Head

In the last 4 encounters, there were 3 draws and 1 win for Tijuana

The goal difference stands at 5:4 in favor of Tijuana

The last head-to-head match ended in a 1:1 draw on January 18, 2026

Atlético San Luis is still waiting for their first win against this opponent in this period

Key Players

For San Luis, midfielder Sébastien Salles-Lamonge shines with 5 goals and 6 assists this season

Forward Leonardo Flores recently recorded 1 goal and 1 assist in his last 5 matches

Not nominated for Tijuana is Kevin Castañeda with 13 goals and 7 assists

Tijuana's Ramiro Árciga has recorded 3 goals and 8 assists this season

Forward Diego Abreu has already scored 3 goals this season

Goalkeepers

Andrés Sánchez is in goal for San Luis with an average season rating of 6.80

Tijuana's Antonio Rodríguez holds a strong season rating of 7.20 and has kept 13 clean sheets this season

San Luis has achieved 7 clean sheets so far this season

Influences

The match will be played on natural grass at the Estadio Alfonso Lastras Ramírez

An average of 2.8 goals per match were scored in the last 5 matches at this venue

San Luis scored an average of 1.44 goals and conceded 1.62 at home

Tijuana conceded an average of 2.36 goals in away games

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