Match report →
Querétaro – Tigres UANL3 : 2
Why the model thinks so
Querétaro
0.98
Total xG
2.21
Tigres UANL
1.23
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Querétaro | Tigres UANL |
|---|---|---|
| Defensive strength (1.6 conceded vs 1.2 league avg) | +0.39 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 12 vs 2, 10 places gap) | −0.11 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.2 goals/match) | +0.06 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 2 vs 12, 10 places gap) | +0.06 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match) | +0.01 | |
| Ángel Correa not in squad (16 goals, 12 assists) | ||
| Jesús Angulo not in squad (2 goals, 0 assists) | ||
| 15% of goal output missing (only 89% available) |
Key factors
- Offensive power of the visitors: Tigres UANL averaged 6.2 shots on target in recent matches
- Tactical setup: Querétaro played counter-oriented recently with an average of 43% possession
- Model prediction: The mathematical analysis calculates a 40% probability for an away win
Risks
- Defensive vulnerability on the road: Tigres UANL concedes an average of 1.87 goals per away game
- Limited offensive impact: Querétaro averaged only 3.6 shots on target in recent matches
- Recent trend for the visitors: Tigres UANL recently conceded 1.8 goals per game on average, up from their season average of 1.26
All probabilities
Result
Querétaro27%
Draw32%
Tigres UANL40%
Double chance
Querétaro or draw60%
Tigres UANL or draw73%
No draw68%
Goals
Over 1.567%
Under 1.534%
Over 2.538%
Under 2.562%
Over 3.518%
Under 3.582%
Both teams score
Yes46%
No54%
Most likely scores
1:1
15%
0:0
13%
0:1
12%
1:0
9%
0:2
8%
3:2
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Tigres UANL with Juan Vigón: 2.5 goals/game. Without: 0.5 goals/game (6 of 8 games)
- Querétaro: scored only after the break in 4 of 8 games
- Querétaro: 4 wins in 4 games with xG above 1.0 (100% win rate)
- Querétaro with Juan Pablo Cázares Torres: 1 goals/game. Without: 2.5 goals/game (6 of 8 games)
- Querétaro: 78% of xG value comes in the second half (last 6 games with xG data)
Lineups
Querétaro 4-2-3-1 · Tigres UANL 4-2-3-1
Querétaro
- 25 G. Allison Revuelta
- 24 B. Duarte
- 13 D. Reyes Rosales
- 2 L. Abascia
- 27 D. Parra Durán
- 4 C. García Prades
- 5 S. Homenchenko Bianchi
- 16 E. Giménez Rojas
- 11 M. Coronel
- 12 P. de Almeida Barbosa
- 9 A. Ávila Vega
Tigres UANL
- 1 N. Guzmán
- 14 J. Garza García
- 28 J. Pereira Silva
- 23 R. Zanre Zwarg
- 32 V. Loroña Aguilar
- 8 F. Gorriarán Fontes
- 5 C. Araújo Vilches
- 16 D. Lainez Leyva
- 11 J. Brunetta
- 77 J. Herrera Morales
- 17 R. Aguirre Soto
Substitutes
- 1 J. Hernández García
- 15 C. Villanueva López
- 23 J. Robles
- 22 J. Unjanque
- 29 W. Madrid
- 26 E. Pérez Reyes
- 35 J. Torres
- 20 A. Alcalá Solorio
- 18 ?. Dueñas
- 30 J. Martínez Jr.
- 15 A. Franco
- 6 J. Vigón Cham
- 25 C. Rodríguez Rangel
- 30 D. Sánchez Guevara
- 33 R. Guerrero Ramirez
- 26 F. Ordóñez Delgado
- 2 F. Reyes Maldonado
- 205 A. de María y Campos Moreno
- 193 M. Villarreal
- 198 I.Galván
Ready to Get Started?
Create an account and discover data-driven football analyses. Cancel anytime.
Create Account →