🇲🇽

Liga MX

Querétaro - Tigres UANL

08/01/2026, 11:00 PM

3 : 2
Expected Goals
Querétaro
1.0
Total xG
2.2
Tigres UANL
1.2
Most Likely Scores

1:1

15%

0:0

13%

0:1

12%

1:0

9%

0:2

8%
What influences the xG?
QUETU

Querétaro

Defensive strength (1.6 conceded vs 1.2 league avg)
+0.39
Standings disadvantage (pos 12 vs 2, 10 places gap)
-0.11
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match)
+0.01

Tigres UANL

3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2.2 goals/match)
+0.06
Standings advantage (pos 2 vs 12, 10 places gap)
+0.06
Ángel Correa not in squad (16 goals, 12 assists)
Jesús Angulo not in squad (2 goals, 0 assists)
15% of goal output missing (only 89% available)
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Tigres UANL with Juan Vigón: 2.5 goals/game. Without: 0.5 goals/game (6 of 8 games)

  • 2
    Querétaro: scored only after the break in 4 of 8 games

  • 3
    Querétaro: 4 wins in 4 games with xG above 1.0 (100% win rate)

  • 4
    Querétaro with Juan Pablo Cázares Torres: 1 goals/game. Without: 2.5 goals/game (6 of 8 games)

  • 5
    Querétaro: 78% of xG value comes in the second half (last 6 games with xG data)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

27%

Draw

32%

Away Win

40%

Goals

Over 1.5

67%

Under 1.5

34%

Over 2.5

38%

Under 2.5

62%

Over 3.5

18%

Under 3.5

82%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

60%

Away or Draw

73%

No Draw

68%

Both Score

Yes

46%

No

54%

Key Factors
  • Offensive power of the visitors: Tigres UANL averaged 6.2 shots on target in recent matches
  • Tactical setup: Querétaro played counter-oriented recently with an average of 43% possession
  • Model prediction: The mathematical analysis calculates a 40% probability for an away win
Risk Factors
  • Defensive vulnerability on the road: Tigres UANL concedes an average of 1.87 goals per away game
  • Limited offensive impact: Querétaro averaged only 3.6 shots on target in recent matches
  • Recent trend for the visitors: Tigres UANL recently conceded 1.8 goals per game on average, up from their season average of 1.26
Overview

Querétaro in 12th place with 3 points hosts Tigres UANL in 15th place with 1 point at Estadio La Corregidora

Liga MX match on August 1, 2026, 11:00 PM

Both teams aim to recover from a slow start to the season

Form

Querétaro's form is DDWLW (W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)

Recently won 2-1 against Pachuca

Tigres UANL's form is WWLLD

Recently drew 2-2 against Atlético San Luis

Statistics

Querétaro averages 1.06 goals scored and 1.47 goals conceded per game

In home games, Querétaro concedes an average of only 0.91 goals

Tigres UANL scores an average of 1.79 goals per match

Away from home, Tigres UANL concedes an average of 1.87 goals

Head-to-Head

4 head-to-head matches in recent years

2 wins for Tigres UANL, 1 win for Querétaro and 1 draw

Goal difference of 3-1 in favor of Tigres UANL

The last meeting ended in a 0-0 draw on March 15, 2026

Key Players

Alí Ávila leads Querétaro with 11 goals and 1 assist this season

Santiago Homenchenko stabilizes the defense and scored 6 goals

Mateo Coronel has contributed 5 goals so far

For Tigres, Juan Brunetta shines with 19 goals and 9 assists

Diego Lainez has provided 6 goals and 7 assists

Ozziel Herrera has registered 7 goals and 4 assists

Not nominated for the visitors are Ángel Correa and Jesús Angulo

Goalkeepers

Guillermo Allison is in goal for Querétaro, holding an average rating of 6.95

Nahuel Guzmán guards the net for Tigres UANL with an average rating of 7.09

Querétaro kept a total of 8 clean sheets this season

Tigres UANL recorded 14 clean sheets over the same period

Influences

The match will be played on grass at Estadio La Corregidora

Historical stadium statistics show an average of 2.4 goals per game

Both teams scored in 4 out of 5 of these home matches

Querétaro benefits at home from a more stable defense, conceding only 0.91 goals on average

Ready to Get Started?

Create an account and discover data-driven football analyses. Cancel anytime.