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Liga MX

Puebla - Guadalajara

08/01/2026, 01:00 AM

1 : 1
Expected Goals
Puebla
1.0
Total xG
2.2
Guadalajara
1.2
Most Likely Scores

1:1

15%

0:0

13%

0:1

12%

1:0

9%

0:2

8%
What influences the xG?
PUEGUA

Puebla

Defensive strength (2.2 conceded vs 1.3 league avg)
+0.91
Standings disadvantage (pos 18 vs 6, 12 places gap)
-0.14
5 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.8 goals/match)
-0.10
Declining form (0.8 vs 1.1 season average)
-0.10

Guadalajara

Attack weakness (0.79x league average)
-0.51
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match)
-0.20
Declining form (1.2 vs 1.9 season average)
-0.20
Standings advantage (pos 6 vs 18, 12 places gap)
+0.07
Efraín Álvarez on the bench (3 goals, 8 assists)
Santiago Sandoval not in squad (6 goals, 1 assists)
Ángel SepĂșlveda on the bench (4 goals, 1 assists)
Omar NicolĂĄs Govea GarcĂ­a on the bench (2 goals, 1 assists)
Diego Campillo on the bench (1 goals, 2 assists)
Weak away record (1.4 vs 1.9 goals/match)
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Guadalajara with José Castillo Pérez: 1.4 goals/game. Without: 0 goals/game (5 of 8 games)

  • 2
    Guadalajara: first goal in 4 of 6 games (67%)

  • 3
    Puebla: 5 of 8 games without conceding in H1, but only 1 over 90 minutes

  • 4
    Puebla: 3 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)

  • 5
    Puebla: 68% of xG value comes in the first half (last 7 games with xG data)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

29%

Draw

32%

Away Win

39%

Goals

Over 1.5

66%

Under 1.5

34%

Over 2.5

38%

Under 2.5

62%

Over 3.5

18%

Under 3.5

82%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

61%

Away or Draw

71%

No Draw

68%

Both Score

Yes

46%

No

54%

Key Factors
  • Tactical advantage: Guadalajara averaged 60% possession and 5.8 shots on target in recent matches compared to Puebla's 2.8
  • Form and xG trend: Puebla's attacking output is stalling with a recent xG of 0.73 compared to their season average of 1.03
  • Historical dominance: Guadalajara won three of the last four meetings, including a massive 5-0 win in the last encounter
Risk Factors
  • Away defensive struggles: Guadalajara concede an average of 1.88 goals per away match
  • Squad depth: The visitors are missing key offensive players not in the squad, such as EfraĂ­n Álvarez, Santiago Sandoval, and Ángel SepĂșlveda
Overview

Puebla host Guadalajara at the Estadio Cuauhtémoc

Liga MX match on August 1, 2026, 1:00 AM

Both teams sit in the mid-table with three points after two matches

The model predicts a balanced match with a slight advantage for the visitors (39% win probability)

Form

Puebla show weak form with four losses in their last five matches

Form string of the hosts: LLLWL (W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)

Guadalajara recently improved, securing two wins, one draw, and two losses

Form string of the visitors: WDLLW

Statistics

Puebla conceded an average of 2 goals per match this season

Guadalajara scored an average of 1.75 goals per match while conceding 1.23

Puebla's home record stands at 1.0 goals scored and 1.6 conceded per match

The visitors average 1.75 goals scored and 1.88 conceded on the road

Head-to-Head

Guadalajara won three of the last four direct encounters

Puebla managed only one victory

The last meeting ended in a clear 5-0 win for Guadalajara in April 2026

Key Players

For Puebla, Emiliano GĂłmez stands out with 8 goals and 5 assists this season

Carlos Baltazar contributed 4 goals and 3 assists in the hosts' midfield

Guadalajara's top scorer Armando GonzĂĄlez has already scored 24 goals this season

Roberto Alvarado shines with 4 goals and 5 assists this term

Not nominated for the visitors are EfraĂ­n Álvarez, Santiago Sandoval, and Ángel SepĂșlveda

Goalkeepers

Daniel Gutiérrez starts in goal for Puebla, holding a season rating of 6.91

RaĂșl Rangel guards the net for Guadalajara with a season average of 6.9

Guadalajara achieved 14 clean sheets this season, while Puebla kept 6

Influences

The match will be played on grass at the Estadio Cuauhtémoc

Stadium statistics show an average of 2.6 goals per match with a 60% BTTS rate

Puebla benefit from a 10-day break compared to 7 days for the visitors

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