Match report →
Puebla – Guadalajara1 : 1
Why the model thinks so
Puebla
1.00
Total xG
2.21
Guadalajara
1.21
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Puebla | Guadalajara |
|---|---|---|
| Defensive strength (2.2 conceded vs 1.3 league avg) | +0.91 | |
| Attack weakness (0.79x league average) | −0.51 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match) | −0.20 | |
| Declining form (1.2 vs 1.9 season average) | −0.20 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 18 vs 6, 12 places gap) | −0.14 | |
| 5 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.8 goals/match) | −0.10 | |
| Declining form (0.8 vs 1.1 season average) | −0.10 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 6 vs 18, 12 places gap) | +0.07 | |
| Efraín Álvarez on the bench (3 goals, 8 assists) | ||
| Santiago Sandoval not in squad (6 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Ángel Sepúlveda on the bench (4 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Omar Nicolás Govea García on the bench (2 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Diego Campillo on the bench (1 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Weak away record (1.4 vs 1.9 goals/match) |
Key factors
- Tactical advantage: Guadalajara averaged 60% possession and 5.8 shots on target in recent matches compared to Puebla's 2.8
- Form and xG trend: Puebla's attacking output is stalling with a recent xG of 0.73 compared to their season average of 1.03
- Historical dominance: Guadalajara won three of the last four meetings, including a massive 5-0 win in the last encounter
Risks
- Away defensive struggles: Guadalajara concede an average of 1.88 goals per away match
- Squad depth: The visitors are missing key offensive players not in the squad, such as Efraín Álvarez, Santiago Sandoval, and Ángel Sepúlveda
All probabilities
Result
Puebla29%
Draw32%
Guadalajara39%
Double chance
Puebla or draw61%
Guadalajara or draw71%
No draw68%
Goals
Over 1.566%
Under 1.534%
Over 2.538%
Under 2.562%
Over 3.518%
Under 3.582%
Both teams score
Yes46%
No54%
Most likely scores
1:1
15%
0:0
13%
0:1
12%
1:0
9%
0:2
8%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Guadalajara with José Castillo Pérez: 1.4 goals/game. Without: 0 goals/game (5 of 8 games)
- Guadalajara: first goal in 4 of 6 games (67%)
- Puebla: 5 of 8 games without conceding in H1, but only 1 over 90 minutes
- Puebla: 3 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)
- Puebla: 68% of xG value comes in the first half (last 7 games with xG data)
Lineups
Puebla 4-4-2 · Guadalajara 3-4-2-1
Puebla
- 28 R. Gutiérrez Hernández
- 12 I. Moreno
- 5 F. Almada
- 4 J. Vargas Campos
- 7 F. Monarrez Ochoa
- 24 A. Organista Orozco
- 21 S. Sanabria Ortega
- 26 K. Velasco Bonilla
- 22 C. Baltazar Agraz
- 11 E. Gómez Dutra
- 29 E. Mustre Torres
Guadalajara
- 1 J. Rangel Aguilar
- 23 D. Aguirre
- 7 L. Romo Barrón
- 2 J. Castillo Pérez
- 28 F. González Pineda
- 37 R. Ledezma
- 11 B. Gutierrez
- 33 J. Carrillo Rodríguez
- 5 B. González
- 25 R. Alvarado Hernández
- 34 A. González Alba
Substitutes
- 10 M. Tomás Borges
- 3 A. Herrera Rodríguez
- 16 A. Ramírez Jiménez
- 33 J. Rodríguez Trujillo
- 15 O. Villa Domínguez
- 8 O. Moreno Villegas
- 2 ?. Leyva
- 27 B. Garnica Cortéz
- 9 L. Hernández Quintero
- 34 L. Azevedo da Silva
- 10 E. Álvarez
- 3 D. Campillo del Campo
- 9 Á. Sepúlveda Sánchez
- 19 K. Castañeda Vargas
- 16 L. Rey Mejía
- 17 R. Marín Sánchez
- 6 O. Govea García
- 13 Ó. Whalley Guardado
- 24 M. Gómez Ortiz
- 18 J. Perez
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